Highlights

SGH reports are highly valued for keeping clients and policymakers informed and well-ahead of consensus and the news cycle on the macro policy events driving global markets.

2015
January 15, 2015
SGH Insight
"Furthermore we believe there is a good chance the ECB may in the end deliver more than the 500 Billion Euro purchase program reported by the press to have been discussed at last week’s interim meeting as the 'maximum' option."
Market Validation
(ECB Introductory remarks 01/22/15) "Under this expanded programme, the combined monthly purchases of public and private sector securities will amount to €60 billion. They are intended to be carried out until end-September 2016 and will in any case be conducted until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation which is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term."
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2014
November 11, 2014
SGH Insight
"As recently as yesterday there was overwhelming consensus in the media, markets, and analyst community that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would press ahead and announce as planned the second installment of sales tax hikes around December 8, after the release of the final reading of Japan’s third quarter GDP. We had been warning for some time, however, that despite those expectations the political landscape was shifting and that it was in fact probable Abe would delay the second tax hike, even with the major monetary stimulus assist provided to the economy by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda at the October 31 Monetary Policy Committee meeting."
Market Validation
(CNBC 11/18/14) "Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called a snap election on Tuesday, and announced a delay in the second sales tax hike by 18 months after the country fell into recession."
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September 03, 2014
SGH Insight
"We suspect there is at least a reasonable chance the ECB could add a small rate cut tomorrow to the much anticipated roll out of its ABS program. While of limited effectiveness as a stand-alone measure, and thus not widely expected, a small rate cut alongside other measures could help generate greater interest in the upcoming TLTRO as well as keep pressure on the Euro in further reinforcing the Eurozone rate differential story."
Market Validation
(WSJ 09/4/14) "In an effort to keep too-low inflation from derailing the eurozone's weak economy, the European Central Bank surprised financial markets with a cut in interest rates and new stimulus plans, despite opposition from Germany's powerful central bank."
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June 04, 2014
SGH Insight
"We find it difficult to recall a time where there was a more universal consensus among traders and analysts that a central bank’s upcoming actions were fully priced in than there is now for tomorrow’s ECB Governing Council meeting. One would be hard pressed indeed to find an article or commentary not running with the "priced in" theme."
Market Validation
(Market Pulse 06/5/2014) "The euro fell to a four-month low against the dollar after the European Central Bank cut interest rates, as expected, and said it would announce further policy easing measures to tackle the threat of disinflation."
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