SGH Insight
...This official also shares a very dark, and sobering view on the likely course of the Ukraine war:
“It is unrealistic to expect the Ukraine crisis to end anytime soon. With Russia introducing a series of highly targeted counter-sanction measures, global crude oil and gas prices will continue to rise, and the world is likely to suffer from severe food shortages and even a worldwide food crisis this year.”
“For Ukraine,” he adds, “the negotiations are just to buy time. Because Europe followed the US in imposing nuclear-level economic sanctions on Russia, the Russian economy has suffered an unprecedented blow, and Russia will also make Europe suffer unforgettable pain. Moscow believes that the longer Russia strikes against Ukraine, the worse the European economy will be, the more chaotic the European social order will be, and the more distant the relationship between Europe and the US will be.”
“Alexander Novak (Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister and co-chair of the China-Russia Energy Cooperation Committee) told us a few days ago that the pain in Russia is immediate pain, while that in Europe is long-term pain. Russia has enough food, oil, and gas, while Europe needs to import a lot. Russia is not afraid to fight a protracted war while the European economy cannot afford it.”
...Russia is currently in active discussion with its “Asian partners,” especially China and India, regarding the possibility of sending extra oil supplies to the Asian market. Moscow has decided to offer preferential prices to China, India, and other “friendly countries” to expand its exports of crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities...
...According to China’s state media, President Xi Jinping told Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson in a phone call today that the international community should “truly” promote peace talks, where China is willing to “continue” to play a constructive role.
As the West pleads with Beijing to press Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to end the Ukraine war, China continues to present its position in the war as that of a moderating force, reiterating its alleged commitment to the tenets and principles of the United Nations Charter and basic norms of international law.
As to actions, however, Beijing remains unequivocally committed to its support and strategic relationship with Moscow, despite US President Joe Biden’s alleged, and it appears largely ignored, threats of unspecified severe consequences to China of continued “material” assistance to Russia.
Market Validation
South China Morning Post 5/15/22
China, Russia tipped to power up energy ties as Europe weans itself off Putin’s oil and gas
China remains a stable buyer of Russian oil and unlikely to join Western sanctions, analyst says
Soyuz Vostok pipeline will expand gas trade between countries already linked by the Power of Siberia pipeline
Energy cooperation between China and Russia is expected to step up, according to observers in China, as Europe looks to wean itself off Russia's oil and gasafter the Ukraine war.
The assessment was made during a closed-door seminar hosted by Renmin University in Beijing by a group of Chinese diplomatic researchers looking into the war's impacts on China and the global economy.
It also came as Russia, which produced roughly 10 per cent of global oil and supplied some 40 per cent of Europe's gas before the war, appeared undeterred, even as the West was ratcheting up economic and financial sanctions.
Major Asian economies are among the few remaining buyers of Russia's oil and gas. India has ramped up oil imports from Russia at substantial discounts, while China, which has bought an estimated 25 per cent of Russia's oil, has been a stable importer, according to Li Wei, an associate professor with Renmin University's school of international studies.
"As long as China does not participate in the sanctions, one-quarter of Russia's crude oil export revenue is safe," Li said at the seminar, according to an edited transcript published by a WeChat account run by the school.
The Times 4/19/22
China warns EU a long war in Ukraine could lead to its break-up
China’s state media has warned the European Union that an extended war in Ukraine could lead to its break-up, while assuring Moscow of Beijing’s unwavering support.
“Is Europe prepared to see a ten-year war on its own continent? Imagine what would happen to Europe: It would turn into a bleeding decade,” an editorial in the state-controlled Global Times argued, citing remarks by President Zelensky that the war could drag on for years.
It accused Washington and Nato of prolonging the war by supplying Ukraine with economic and military aid, “cheering Ukraine on to fight a ten-year war”.
● Russia begins assault across Ukraine’s eastern front
It added: “By then, Europe, being entangled in a war, will completely lose its security autonomy and become fully reliant on the US umbrella. It will have to confront a ten-year crisis on energy, food, refugees and inflation. Social turmoil will surface. The bloc may even split on the issue,” the party newspaper warned.
Bloomberg 3/31/22
Russia Offers Oil to India at Big Discount to Pre-War Price
Russia is offering India steep discounts on
the direct sale of oil as mounting international pressure lowers
the appetite for its barrels elsewhere following the invasion of
Ukraine, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The sanctions-hit nation is offering its flagship Urals
grade to India at discounts of as much as $35 a barrel on prices
before the war to lure India to lift more shipments, the people
said, asking not to be identified discussing confidential
deliberations.
PTI 3/30/22
China says no limit for cooperation with Russia as Lavrov arrives for talks amid Ukraine war
China says no limit for cooperation with Russia as Lavrov arrives for talks amid Ukraine war
Hosting Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the first high level Russian official to visit Beijing after the Ukraine war, China on Wednesday said “cooperation” between the two allies has no “ceiling” to resist “hegemony”.
Lavrov arrived in Tunxi, east China's Anhui Province, for the third meeting of foreign ministers on Afghanistan, Russia's official news agency Tass reported on Wednesday.
"There is no ceiling for China-Russia cooperation, no ceiling for us to strive for peace, no ceiling for us to safeguard security and no ceiling for us to oppose hegemony,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told a media briefing here when asked to describe the limits of China-Russia relations.