Media & Events

SGH Macro Advisors hosts private roundtable meetings and events for clients and senior policymakers and will on occasion share its insights and grant interviews to selective media upon request.  Contact us for more information.

2022
WSJ - March 31, 2022
Tim Duy, chief economist at SGH Macro Advisors, told clients Tuesday that for the May FOMC meeting "incoming inflation and jobs data will almost certainly support the [50 basis point] move, and more importantly [Fed Chairman Jerome] Powell likely supports it as well."
February 17, 2022
Moderated by Sassan Ghahramani, Founder and CEO of SGH Macro Advisors, with panelists Dr. Michael Woodford, John Bates Clark Professor of Political Economy, Columbia University, and Tim Duy, Chief US Economist for SGH Macro Advisors and author of “Tim Duy’s Fed Watch.”
Bloomberg Opinion - January 4, 2022
Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, put it this way: “Hawkishness is the new dovishness.” To be clear, the Fed’s stance will almost certainly remain highly accommodative by historical standards. Real yields aren’t anywhere near turning positive. In the past, the central bank might be inclined to slam the brakes on the economy to stamp out the sharpest price growth in four decades. The Powell Fed absolutely won’t do that. But it does seem to have the tacit approval of the White House to get a tad more aggressive on inflation.
2021
Reuters - December 13, 2021
The Fed needs to be a bit more aggressive with removing accommodation than they have been,” said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, who expects officials to revise their median forecast to two rate hikes next year to rein in inflation levels, from a split at their last meeting on if they even needed one...
The New Yorker - December 6, 2021
...Given all these crosscurrents, it seems like it might make sense for the central bank to keep its options open. One longtime Fed watcher I spoke with said that was what Powell was doing last week by making his hawkish comments about inflation and accelerating the taper. “By tapering early, the Fed can actually increase its optionality going into 2022,” Tim Duy, the chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, said. “They could decide to raise interest rates as early as March, or, depending on the incoming data, they could continue to push out until the fall.” Duy also said that he suspects, with core inflation running at more than four per cent and the jobless rate at 4.2 per cent, many people at the Fed believe that the necessary conditions for a rate hike have already been met...
FT - December 1, 2021
“What is going on here is that Powell is looking at the level of inflation and looking at how fast the economy is growing and is starting to get worried that the Fed has been too easy for too long,” said Tim Duy, an economist at SGH Macro Advisors and the University of Oregon. “They are shifting the narrative.”
Bloomberg Opinion - November 17, 2021
...That kind of framing seems misguided at best. Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, put it this way: “It’s not a choice between a recession or zero rates forever.” Indeed, it’s time for the Fed to start contemplating how to tread a middle ground if officials continue to be wrong about inflation...
FT - October 21, 2021
...Tim Duy of SGH Macro Advisors said in a note that there was a danger of a “possible leadership vacuum at the Fed” if the Biden administration did not make decisions quickly, both on Powell’s fate and other vacancies at the top of the central bank. Randal Quarles’ tenure as Fed vice-chair for supervision, which is responsible for banking regulation, expired this month without a replacement and no one has been tapped for the job. Meanwhile, the Fed is gearing up to start shrinking the pace of its asset purchases to slow the support for the economy as high inflation persists. Next year the Fed will be debating when and how to actually start raising interest rates. “The lack of White House attention to the Fed creates potentially enormous policy uncertainty,” Duy said...
MarketWatch - October 19, 2021
...Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, said comments from the Fed are moving in an overall hawkish direction. He said it will be important to see if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pushes back on such talk at his upcoming speech on Friday.
Yahoo Finance - October 11, 2021
...“My instinct is that with Powell acting quickly to address the issue and assuming he can keep the scandals at arm’s length, he is still the favorite for the top spot,” said Tim Duy, SGH Macro Advisors chief U.S. economist, in a note last week...
Washington Post and Bloomberg - September 28, 2021
“I view Rudd’s policy implications as an indictment of the Fed’s new policy framework,” Tim Duy, a former Bloomberg Opinion contributor who’s now chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, wrote in a report. “There is clearly some internal conflict.” I wrote last week after the Federal Open Market Committee decision that Powell tried to walk back the central bank’s inflation fear, which was evident in the hawkish shift in the “dot plot.” The sort of questions raised by Rudd’s paper only increase the likelihood that policy makers will be leery of inflation that persistently exceeds 2% and that for all the talk about a “substantially more stringent test” to raise interest rates and the steadfast belief that price growth will be transitory, they’ll react similarly to the way they have in the past.
Reuters - August 26, 2021
Fed’s Powell likely to give few hints on bond-buying taper timeline
..."It's complicated messaging right now," said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors. "The reality is the tapering is not separate from the rate hike: once you start the tapering, you kind of start a clock on the rate hike."...
Market Watch - August 23, 2021
"...Leave it to Tim Duy, the provocative University of Oregon professor and chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, to make the connection. Duy said the White House at this point is distracted and politically weakened by the events in Afghanistan. “I think that favors Powell in that he represents continuity and the path of least resistance,” he said. Powell, a Republican, would gain support from the GOP side of the aisle, and a key swing Democrat, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, has said he prefers tapering sooner rather than later — which presumably means he doesn’t want a more dovish choice than Powell. That would make it difficult to get the realistic alternative to Powell, Fed. Gov. Lael Brainard, through Senate confirmation. “With Powell, Biden likely has an easier path to a bipartisan win, and I think his administration will be looking to rack up those wins, although the progressive wing’s calls for tighter regulation will also play then to the compromise of Brainard as vice chair for supervision (assuming, of course, that she would be interested in taking the job),” said Duy. According to a Bloomberg News article, Powell’s reappointment is supported by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Biden will make his decision around Labor Day. Duy said the Fed will wait till November to formally announce a slowdown in bond purchases. “I think a consensus will be easier to reach with two more employment reports, that the Fed would not want to announce a taper heading into another debt ceiling debate in October, and that the Fed will want to use September to telegraph that the taper is coming,” he said. As for the Jackson Hole Fed gathering — being held virtually beginning Thursday — “watch also for signs that Powell has lost some of his conviction that the delta variant will have only limited economic impacts; any increase of concerns on this front would be a clear signal against September.”
Market Watch - August 18, 2021
...“In short, at this point, the Fed is just working out the details. Barring some dramatic change in the economy, tapering of asset purchases will begin in the next few months and end by the middle of next year,” said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors...
CNN - August 10, 2021
..."To the extent that inflation is transitory, this dip in real wages is also transitory," said Tim Duy, chief US economist at SGH Macro Advisors, a research firm for the financial industry and policymakers...
FT - July 21, 2021
“People don’t buy a used car every month whereas many pay rent every month,” Tim Duy, a professor at the University of Oregon and chief economist at SGH Macro Advisors wrote in a note this week...
Axios - July 13, 2021
...What they’re saying: "Why will consumers pay more? Because they can afford it," SGH Macro Advisors economist Tim Duy writes in a note to clients. Duy says that inflation measures like CPI should be considered in the context of other key variables. "The main event is the dynamic between expectations, inflation, and wages," he writes. "One part of that dynamic is firms believing the consumers no longer have a choice but to absorb price increases." What to watch: Duy says to keep an eye on this dynamic as it, among other things, may complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to stimulate employment while maintaining price stability...
FT - June 17, 2021
“There’s a pretty sharp shift in the Fed’s approach to managing the recovery here,” said Tim Duy, an economist at SGH Macro Advisors and the University of Oregon. “The weight of the evidence that the economy is rebounding faster than expected, with more inflationary pressures than expected, finally broke through the Fed’s dovish stance.”
Yahoo Finance - June 17, 2021
The Fed said in December it would slow the pace of the so-called quantitative easing program when the U.S. economic recovery showed “substantial further progress,” a vague goal that Powell said was “still a ways off” yesterday. “We should expect rhetoric to tilt more hawkish as Fed presidents stake out positions on ‘substantial progress,’” SGH Macro Advisors’ Tim Duy wrote Wednesday. “The participants raising their dots are going to want to talk about it.”
Reuters - June 16, 2021
Yet enough has changed in recent months - and may start to change at an even faster clip - that analysts expect the Fed to at least acknowledge the start of policy discussions that will eventually lead to a plan to first reduce the monthly $120 billion in bond purchases to zero and then start raising interest rates. "This is about getting the ball rolling," in a process that may take months to complete, and in a way that avoids any rapid shift in sentiment among investors or consumers that could damage the recovery in the meantime, wrote Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist for SGH Macro Advisors and a University of Oregon professor focused on Fed policy.