Bloomberg 4/9/26

President Trump called Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday and asked him to scale back Israel’s strikes in Lebanon to ensure the success of the Iran negotiations,NBC reports, citing an unidentified senior administration official.

• Israel agreed “to be a helpful partner,” the official tells NBC

@BarakRavid

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: In light of Lebanon’s repeated requests to open direct negotiations with Israel, I instructed yesterday to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible

Bloomberg 4/8/26

A Chinese diplomat said Beijing had made its
“own efforts” in pushing for a ceasefire between the US and
Iran, shortly after Donald Trump credited China with playing a
pivotal role in that deal.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning on Wednesday
listed the efforts her country had made in recent weeks to
deescalate the conflict at a regular briefing in Beijing,
without directly addressing reports China helped convince Tehran
to reach the truce.
“China has consistently advocated for a ceasefire and to
resolve the conflict through political and diplomatic means, and
to achieve long-term stability in the Gulf and Middle East
region,” she said, when asked about the detente. “China made its
own efforts in this regard.”

WASHINGTON (AP) 4/8/26

The number of Federal Reserve policymakers willing to consider an interest rate hike this year rose between the January and March meetings, as higher gas prices stemming from the Iran war threatened to worsen inflation in the coming months.

Minutes of the Fed’s March 17-18 meeting, released Wednesday, showed that “some” of the central bank’s 19 policymakers on its rate-setting committee supported changing their post-meeting statement to reflect the potential for a future rate hike. That is an an increase from “several” in January. The Fed doesn’t disclose precise numbers of how many officials supported each position, but in Fed jargon, ‘some’ is considered more than ‘several.’

And “many” of the officials pointed to the risk that higher oil and gas prices could keep inflation elevated for “longer than expected, which could call for rate increases” to push inflation back down.

Wall Street Journal 3/30/26

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Monday the central bank is inclined to hold rates steady and look past the energy shock from the war in Iran but cautioned that it might not be able to sit on the sidelines if rising prices begin to shift the public’s expectations about inflation over time.

Powell said energy disruptions have historically been short-lived and that the standard central-banking response is to wait them out. But he said the Fed couldn’t take that for granted after years of elevated inflation, and that officials would be watching closely for any signs the public is starting to expect persistently higher prices.

“You can have a series of these supply shocks and that can lead the public generally — businesses, price setters, households — to start expecting higher inflation over time. Why wouldn’t they?” Powell said.

Powell tiptoed away from saying how the Fed would answer that riddle. “We will eventually maybe face the question of what to do here. We’re not really facing it yet because we don’t know what the economic effects will be,” he said during a question-and-answer session with undergraduate students at Harvard University’s introductory economics course.

Bloomberg 3/30/26

The Bank of Japan’s policy board presented a
hawkish posture in a summary of opinions aired during their
meeting earlier this month, with one member hinting at the
possibility of having to respond to the Middle East conflict
with a bigger rate hike than those recently undertaken.
“If there are no signs of a significant deterioration in
the economic environment or in the wage setting stance of small
firms, the bank will need to raise the policy interest rate
without hesitation,” one of nine board members said, according
to a summary of the March 18-19 meeting released Monday.

Bloomberg 4/7/26

US job growth rebounded in March and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, suggesting the labor market was stabilizing as the Iran war began.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 last month, the most since the end of 2024, after revisions showed a sharper decline in February, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Friday. That was higher than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

The solid increase will likely reinforce the Federal Reserve’s focus on inflation risks amid a rapid run-up in energy prices sparked by the war in Iran.

The outsize increase in payrolls in March followed a revised 133,000 drop in the prior month, which marked one of the biggest declines since the pandemic. But on average, payrolls rose 68,000 in the first three months of this year, the strongest run in almost a year.

Reuters – London – 4/1/26

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Wednesday that markets were still getting ahead of themselves by pricing in ​interest rate hikes by the central bank in response to the ‌hit to the British economy from the Iran war.

“(The market)’s still pricing us to raise rates. I would still ​say that is a ​judgment markets have ⁠to make but I think they’re getting ahead of themselves,” Bailey said.

Bloomberg 3/18/26

Treasuries came under selling pressure on Wednesday, led by the front-end of the curve after the Federal Reserve held rates steady in an 11-1 vote, while upgrading growth projections and still forecasting one cut by the end of this year. In the press conference, Chair Jerome Powell said there couldn’t be rate cuts until there is progress on inflation and didn’t rule out potential for rate hikes in the future, though that’s not a base case for the Fed

Bloomberg 3/18/26

*FED SAYS GOVERNOR STEPHEN MIRAN DISSENTS IN FAVOR OF RATE CUT

Bloomberg 3/17/26

Australia’s central bank raised its key
interest rate for a second straight meeting on Tuesday, stepping
up its battle against stubborn inflation as rising energy costs
from the widening war in Iran threaten to intensify price
pressures.
The Reserve Bank’s nine-member policy committee split five-
to-four in favor of raising the cash rate to 4.1% from 3.85%.
This was the first back-to-back hike since mid-2023 and reverses
two of the three cuts delivered last year.

Bloomberg 3/14/26

The US struck military sites on Kharg
Island, from which Iran exports almost all its oil, for the
first time overnight, upping the ante in a Middle East war
that’s raged for more than two weeks and shows little sign of
easing.
President Donald Trump said military facilities on the
Persian Gulf island had been “obliterated,” adding that he chose
not to hit oil infrastructure “for reasons of decency.” He
threatened to do just that should Iran “do anything to interfere
with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of
Hormuz.”

Axios 3/20/26

The Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran’s
Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, four sources
with knowledge of the issue tell Axios.

Bloomberg 3/10/26

European bonds rebounded on Tuesday as traders seized on a drop in energy prices to dial back the extreme moves seen at the start of the week.

Italian bonds led the recovery in the euro area as 10-year yields slid five basis points to 3.56%. Markets now price fewer than 25 basis points of monetary tightening from the European Central Bank, compared with more than a half percentage point at one stage on Monday.

MT Newswires 3/18/26

The Federal Open Market Committee kept the Federal Funds rate target unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, its statement Wednesday afternoon showed.

The policy committee’s vote was mostly unanimous, with Governor Stephen Miran being the lone dissenter, preferring to lower the target range for the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points.

Bloomberg 3/19/26

The Swiss National Bank restated its heightened readiness to sell the franc as officials held back again from the more drastic step of cutting borrowing costs into negative territory.

Policymakers led by President Martin Schlegel left their benchmark at zero on Thursday for the third consecutive meeting, as predicted unanimously by economists. Officials kept up their commitment to sell the currency if required to prevent its gains from weighing too much on inflation.

“A rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc poses a risk to price stability,” Schlegel told reporters in Zurich. “To counter this risk, our willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased.”

Bloomberg 3/19/20

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda kept the
possibility of an April interest rate hike on the table after
leaving policy unchanged Thursday amid uncertainty over the
impact of the Middle East conflict on the economic outlook.
Speaking at a press briefing after the central bank’s
decision he said that downward pressure on the economy stemming
from the impact of the hostilities would likely be temporary.
“Even if economic growth were to decline, if that
development is temporary and there’s not so much impact on the
trajectory of the price trend then of course it will be possible
to raise interest rates,” he said.

Bloomberg 3/18/26

The Bank of Canada held interest rates steady, saying it would “look through” the Middle East war’s immediate inflation impact as it kept focus on downside growth risks.

Officials led by Governor Tiff Macklem kept the policy rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, matching expectations of markets and a majority of economists in a Bloomberg survey.

Bloomberg 2/3/26
Australia’s central bank raised its key interest rate Tuesday after judging inflation pressures were persistent enough to warrant renewed restraint but not strong enough to signal further hikes are possible.
While it warned in its statement that “inflation is likely to remain above target for some time,” Governor Michele Bullock in a briefing avoided any hints that further tightening was possible.
“I don’t know if it’s in a cycle, certainly it’s an adjustment,” she said when asked if the bank was in a new tightening phase. “We are in a position where we think we might be around neutral.” “It’s not clear one way or the other,” she said.

Bloomberg 2/5/26
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged as officials assess the economic toll of a rally in the euro and renewed trade unpredictability.
The deposit rate was left at 2% on Thursday — as predicted by all economists in a Bloomberg survey. The ECB didn’t offer guidance on future steps, reiterating that incoming data will steer decision-making.
“The economy remains resilient in a challenging global environment,” it said in a statement. “At the same time, the outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.”

Dow Jones OTTAWA 1/28/26
The Bank of Canada on Wednesday kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% in a second-consecutive decision, and warned the level of uncertainty stemming from U.S. trade policy and geopolitical risks has ramped up.
The consensus among senior officials “was that elevated uncertainty makes it difficult to predict the timing or direction of the next change in the policy rate,” Gov. Tiff Macklem said. Prior to Wednesday, most economists surveyed by the Journal predicted the central bank would hold the policy rate steady through 2026.
Macklem said U.S. trade policy continued to disrupt the domestic economy. Central-bank officials project that economic growth stalled in the fourth quarter, after a surprise jump in the previous quarter buoyed by net trade.

Bloomberg 1/28/26
Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged and pointed to improvements in the US economy as they signaled a more cautious approach to potential future adjustments.
In a post-meeting statement, policymakers said “job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization.” Officials also dropped language pointing to increased downside risks to employment that had appeared in the three previous statements.

Wall Street Journal 1/28/26
Two Fed governors — both appointed by President Trump — dissented against the decision and favored a quarter-point rate cut. The Fed’s 12-person rate-setting committee includes seven presidentially-appointed governors and five regional bank presidents who aren’t political appointees.
Powell’s term as chair ends in May, and Trump’s advisers have said he is close to naming a successor. Governor Christopher Waller, one of four finalists, opposed Wednesday’s decision. Analysts had said casting a dissenting vote may have been a precondition for keeping his long-shot candidacy viable.
Governor Stephen Miran also dissented. Since Trump named him to fill a short-term vacancy on the Fed’s board last summer, he has dissented at all four policy meetings he has attended in favor of lower rates.

Bloomberg. 2/5/26
The Bank of England came within a vote of cutting interest rates and predicted inflation will fall below its target, a closer-than-expected decision that revived hopes of a move next month.
Governor Andrew Bailey was once again the swing voter in a 5-4 decision to leave rates unchanged at 3.75%, choosing to hold policy having cut at the last meeting in December. Bailey said in a statement that “there should be scope for some further reduction in bank rate this year.”
In updated forecasts, the BOE predicted inflation will be at its 2% target in April and warned of slowing growth and rising unemployment.
The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision was far more dovish than anticipated, with the close call not reflected in market pricing before the meeting for a near-zero chance of a reduction. Earlier Thursday, the pound dipped and gilt yields rose as speculation mounted over the future of Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The pound extended losses, falling as much as 0.8% to $1.3550, and traders ramped up bets on rate cuts to price more than a 50% chance of a quarter-point move in March. They expect 45 basis points of reductions in total by year-end.