“We firmly believe that despite the threats and warnings, Greece will indeed meet its April 9 payment to the IMF”

" While a “Framework Understanding” announcement may be weaker than the signed “Framework Agreement” that was hoped for today, where it matters for markets, it may end up being far more significant than is being widely assumed."

"We believe there is a reasonable likelihood Greece’s payment to the IMF may be missed and delayed by a week or two as Athens scrambles to put together a budget acceptable to its creditors."

"If, defying the skeptics, there is a substantive agreement on a framework by the end of March, as we expect, the next deadline will be July 1 for a comprehensive agreement."

"We would venture a guess of perhaps as high as 50% odds that the parties don’t have enough time to finalize anything over the next 24 hours beyond a partial communique or agreement to keep negotiations going."

"June, in other words, is when the FOMC is more likely to make its decision on the lift-off timing rather than when it actually pulls the trigger on that long-awaited first rate hike. Indeed, we still see a more prudent building of consensus in the Committee from June into September as the most likely meeting for a rates lift-off"

"And from the few signals we pick up from Moscow, we believe a cease fire agreement can indeed be reached."

"Furthermore we believe there is a good chance the ECB may in the end deliver more than the 500 Billion Euro purchase program reported by the press to have been discussed at last week’s interim meeting as the 'maximum' option."

"As recently as yesterday there was overwhelming consensus in the media, markets, and analyst community that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would press ahead and announce as planned the second installment of sales tax hikes around December 8, after the release of the final reading of Japan’s third quarter GDP. We had been warning for some time, however, that despite those expectations the political landscape was shifting and that it was in fact probable Abe would delay the second tax hike, even with the major monetary stimulus assist provided to the economy by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda at the October 31 Monetary Policy Committee meeting."

"We suspect there is at least a reasonable chance the ECB could add a small rate cut tomorrow to the much anticipated roll out of its ABS program. While of limited effectiveness as a stand-alone measure, and thus not widely expected, a small rate cut alongside other measures could help generate greater interest in the upcoming TLTRO as well as keep pressure on the Euro in further reinforcing the Eurozone rate differential story."

"We find it difficult to recall a time where there was a more universal consensus among traders and analysts that a central bank’s upcoming actions were fully priced in than there is now for tomorrow’s ECB Governing Council meeting. One would be hard pressed indeed to find an article or commentary not running with the "priced in" theme."