Brexit: Potentially Significant Turnout Indications

Published on June 21, 2016

The U.K. Electoral commission has just released electoral data which show a record 46,499,537 registered voters. That number could go even higher by Thursday and approaches a whopping 2,000,000 above the 44,722,000 registered for the 2015 general election.

Initial indications furthermore suggest postal vote returns have also been extremely high by historic standards. Both these data points would suggest turnout on Thursday could be in the high 60%-low 70% area, beating last year’s general election.

While the official polling remains too close to call, this should be welcome news to the Remain camp that has worried lower turnout would favor more highly motivated (an older demographic) Leave voters.

Postal vote returns are also significant in that, as you will recall, the Remain camp has been aggressively targeting the ex-pat community as a potential swing vote for Thursday (see SGH 6/10/16, “Brexit: ‘Remain’ Struggling Dangerously”).

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