COVID-19: After the First Wave

Published on April 9, 2020

With markets and the population at large eagerly looking for a light at the end of the COVID-19 pandemic tunnel, we are pleased to share with you the latest exclusive submission to SGH Macro Advisors from epidemiologist Dr. Sarah Zaidi — “COVID-19: After the First Wave.”

While, as always, we strongly urge you read the informative report in full, we would highlight here a few key points that may be of special interest: that while moving in the right direction, Dr. Zaidi believes it unlikely the Trump administration will be able to call an all-clear on the resumption of economic activity by May 1; that as critical as testing is to identifying the real spread of the virus in the population, the development of (reliable) antibody and antigen tests to open a segment of the population to social activities is equally as important, and the development of such tests may still be as far as three months away; and that until a vaccine is developed, the high portion of the population that will remain susceptible to a second wave of the disease will dictate a very different “normal’ than pre-COVID that will most likely include continued restrictions, monitoring and alert level protocols, and response contingencies for renewed outbreaks.

The German government is in process of putting together an exit strategy that has not been released yet, but New Zealand has developed and released a template Dr. Zaidi has attached that could be informative including for a large country such as the United States.

As in the previous COVID reports, SGH did not produce the content of this report, and any edits to the document are for flow purposes alone. The report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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