Bloomberg 1/23/26

* The central bank raised its GDP growth forecasts for fiscal
2025 and 2026, which start in April, reflecting easing global
uncertainty and support from the stimulus package under Prime
Minister Sanae Takaichi.

*On long-term yields, Ueda noted that supply-demand
conditions in the ultra-long segment have become unstable due to
fiscal year-end factors. He stressed close communication with
the government and reiterated that the BOJ would conduct stable
and nimble operations in exceptional circumstances to reassure
markets.

Wall Street Journal — WASHINGTON 1/28/26
The Federal Reserve entered a new holding pattern on interest rates Wednesday and signaled little urgency to resume cuts after contentious reductions at officials’ three previous meetings.
The decision to hold the benchmark federal-funds rate steady in a range between 3.5% and 3.75% was approved on a 10-2 vote.
Officials made fairly modest changes to the post-meeting statement explaining their decision, retaining language that typically has signaled openness to further moves without suggesting any hurry to make them.
“We’re not trying to articulate a test for when to next cut or whether to cut at the next meeting,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference. “What we’re saying is we’re well positioned as we make decisions, meeting by meeting.”

Bloomberg 1/23/26
While Ueda had suggested that overall inflation will weaken
below 2% soon, he also left open the possibility of an early
rate hike.
“April is a month where there’s relatively high numbers of
price revisions,” Ueda said. “We have a certain amount of
interest in that, and while it’s not the most important factor
in deciding the next rate hike, it’s one of the factors.”

Bloomberg 1/24/26
Speculation mounted into the weekend that
Japanese authorities could be preparing to enter currency
markets in a bid to halt the yen’s slide, possibly with the rare
assistance of the US.
The yen rallied as much as 1.75% to 155.63 per dollar on
Friday, extending the gains seen during the Asian trading day to
its strongest level of the year. The move was the biggest one-
day surge since August and reversed what had been a slide toward
levels last seen in 2024, when Japan stepped in to buy its
currency.
The jump in the US session came as traders reported that
the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had contacted financial
institutions to ask about the yen’s exchange rate. Wall Street
saw those inquiries as a potentially laying the ground for Japan
to intervene to prop up the yen, perhaps even with the US
government joining in.

Washington Post 1/28/26
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged Wednesday, hitting the pause button at its first meeting this year despite pressure from President Donald Trump to slash rates further.
With job growth still decelerating but the economy showing few signs of distress, policymakers now say they can afford to be patient as they watch whether inflation continues to cool.

AFP 2/5/26
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged Thursday for a fifth time in a row, saying it expected inflation to stabilise at its two-percent target “in the medium term”.

Politico US 1/6/26
U.S. officials also expect Rodriguez — the former vice president now running
Venezuela — to eventually facilitate free elections and step aside, the two
people said. But the deadlines for the demands are fluid, and U.S. officials
stress there are no elections imminent.

Bloomberg 1/8/26
The US will not cut off China from accessing Venezuelan oil, Energy Secretary Chris Wright says on Fox News.
“We’re not going to cut off China — the illicit trade in oil with Iran and Russia, the illegal gun-running stuff, that’s going to be cut off and stopped,” Wright says
“China is a giant commercial economy, and no, China is going to continue to buy Venezuelan oil,” he adds when asked if US would cut off Venezuelan oil shipments to China

Axios 1/28/26
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, noting “solid” growth and a stabilizing job market, as the central bank navigates a delicate economic and political moment.
The big picture: The central bank’s policy committee took a breather after three consecutive rate cuts in the final meetings of last year, showing greater confidence in the economy. But they gave no hints as to when they may adjust borrowing costs again.

Bloomberg 1/23/26
Economists now expect the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates until June, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey.
Just last month, economists had forecast the first rate cut of the year to come in March. But with inflationary pressures lingering and signs of stabilization in the labor market, the timeline has moved further out. Policymakers’ preferred inflation metric is projected to stay above their 2% target through at least the middle of next year.
After lowering borrowing costs three straight times to close out 2025, Fed officials are widely expected to hold rates steady next week. Economists in the survey predict the second and final reduction of the year will come in September, unchanged from last month’s survey.
Investors have similarly pushed back expectations of when the Fed will resume cutting rates. The first reduction is now not seen as probable until at least June, according to federal funds futures contracts, compared to a month ago when a reduction in April was seen as more likely than not.

Bloomberg 12/19/25
The yen weakened against the dollar after the Bank of Japan offered no clear guidance on the timing of future monetary tightening, analysts said. The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level since 1995 as expected.

Bloomberg 12/18/25
Although the Bank of England cut rates, the vote pattern and the tone of its statement give it a hawkish slant.

The BOE cut rates by just a 5-4 margin, indicating that some of the hawks on the committee are still not convinced that inflationary pressures are waning sufficiently.

The BOE’s guidance is also more cautious, with the central bank saying that the extent of further easing will depend on the evolution of the inflation outlook and that “judgements around further easing will become a closer call.”

Dow Jones 1/28/26
Bank of Canada keeps its main interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, as widely expected. The theme of the first policy decision of 2026 is uncertainty. Gov. Tiff Macklem refers to uncertainty 7 times in prepared remarks for a press conference. “Uncertainty around this outlook is unusually high,” says Macklem. In the official decision, BOC revises its final paragraph, to explain that while the benchmark rate is at an appropriate level, “uncertainty is heightened and we are monitoring risks closely.” In the December decision, BOC referred to uncertainty as “elevated.” (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

Wall Street Journal 12/10/25
Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates at their third consecutive meeting but signaled little appetite for more amid unusual internal divisions over whether inflation or the job market should be their bigger worry.
The Fed voted 9-3 for the reduction on Wednesday, the first time in six years that three officials cast dissents. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid thought the reduction wasn’t warranted, while Fed governor Stephen Miran favored a larger, half-point cut.
The decision to reduce the benchmark federal-funds rate by a quarter point — to between 3.5% and 3.75%, a three-year low — is aimed at protecting against a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in hiring.
With progress on inflation stalled, officials had indicated in the run-up to this week’s decision that further reductions could require evidence of labor-market deterioration.
On Wednesday, their painstakingly calibrated post-meeting statement signaled a higher bar to additional cuts — echoing a similar pivot to the sidelines after cutting rates one year ago — by saying that the “extent and timing” of those moves would depend on changes in the economic outlook.

Bloomberg 12/10/25
Median assessment of appropriate federal funds rate at the end of each calendar year and over the longer run:
2025: 3.625% (range 3.375% to 3.875%); prior 3.625%
2026: 3.375% (range 2.125% to 3.875%); prior 3.375%
2027: 3.125% (range 2.375% to 3.875%); prior 3.125%
2028: 3.125% (range 2.625% to 3.875%); prior 3.125%
Longer Run: 3.000% (range 2.625% to 3.875%); prior 3.000%

“Federal Reserve cuts key rate but signals higher bar for future reductions”
WASHINGTON (AP) – 12/10/25
The Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate for the third time in a row Wednesday but signaled that it may leave rates unchanged in the coming months, a move that could attract ire from President Donald Trump, who has demanded steep reductions to borrowing costs.
In a statement released after a two-day meeting, the Fed’s rate-setting committee signaled that it may keep its rate unchanged in the coming months. And in a set of quarterly economic projections, Fed officials signaled they expect to lower rates just once next year.

New York Times 12/10/25
The central bank’s decision to lower interest rates for a third straight meeting was highly contentious, reflecting an internal divide that will likely limit how much borrowing costs will fall next year.
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday in what was a highly contentious decision, suggesting officials may be reluctant to lower borrowing costs much further unless the labor market weakens sharply.
The decision to cut for a third meeting in a row shifted interest rates to a new range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent. It marked the fourth straight vote that was not backed by all members of the 12-person Federal Open Market Committee, underscoring how fractured the central bank has become as it grapples with the risk of both rising unemployment and sticky inflation.

Dow Jones, Ottawa 12/10/25
The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady on Wednesday and said officials were sticking with their outlook for moderate growth even though recent economic data point to signs of upward momentum.
The central bank left its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, adding that policymakers believe it sits at an appropriate level to keep total inflation close to 2% while offering some stimulus for an economy squeezed by U.S. tariffs.
The decision likely marks the start of a prolonged pause in Canadian rate policy, following aggressive steps over a roughly 16-month period to roll back interest-rate hikes meant to contain historically-high inflation.

Bloomberg 12/9/25
Australia’s central bank Governor Michele
Bullock called an end to a truncated easing cycle as
policymakers gauge whether a pickup in inflation requires an
extended interest-rate pause or a switch to tightening.
Bond yields spiked to a 13-month high after the governor on
Tuesday said that price risks have “tilted to the upside”
following the Reserve Bank board’s widely-expected decision to
hold the cash rate at 3.6%.
“I don’t think there are interest rate cuts on the horizon
for the foreseeable future,” Bullock told reporters. “The
question is, is it just an extended hold from here or is it the
possibility of a rate rise. I couldn’t put a probability on
those but I think they’re the two things that the board will be
looking closely at coming into the new year.”

Dow Jones TOKYO 12/19/25
The Bank of Japan lifted interest rates to a level not seen in three decades, tightening policy settings again after an almost yearlong pause.
The central bank on Friday raised its overnight call rate target to 0.75% from 0.5%, reflecting policymakers’ growing confidence that wage growth and inflation are moving in sync. The hike, the BOJ’s first since January, puts borrowing costs at their highest level since 1995.

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) 12/18/25
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged Thursday for the fourth meeting in a row as the economy in the 20 countries that use the euro increasingly looks strong enough to get by without the stimulus of lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.
The bank’s rate-setting council left the benchmark deposit rate unchanged at 2%, where it has been since a rate cut in June. Economists now think the rate could stay right there for months – and possibly into 2027.

The Guardian 12/18/25
The Bank of England has cut interest rates by a quarter point for the fourth time this year, delivering a pre-Christmas boost to the struggling UK economy.
After leaving borrowing costs on hold in a split vote last month before the budget, the Bank’s nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC) said on Thursday it would reduce the base rate from 4% to 3.75%.
The latest rate cut – the sixth since Labour came to power last year – will be welcomed by the chancellor, Rachel Reeves.
Reeves announced a series of inflation-fighting measures at her November budget that were partly aimed at increasing the Bank’s room to manoeuvre to cut rates.

Bloomberg Economics 12/11/25
The Swiss National Bank confirmed it is looking through recent weakness in inflation by holding its interest rate steady at 0%, despite a downgrade of its inflation forecasts. This sets the stage for further decisions to hold over coming meetings, as the price outlook is expected to gradually improve.
During the press conference, SNB President Martin Schlegel reiterated the central bank’s tolerance for inflation remaining at the bottom of its targeted range (0%-2%). This confirms the high bar for a negative interest rates policy. The focus over the coming months shifts to communication, notably around the potential for targeted FX interventions, through the publication of the minutes of this meeting later in January.

Wall Street Journal 12/18/25
The Bank of England cut its key interest rate Thursday, moving in step with the Federal Reserve rather than many peers in Europe, which have entered a period of steadier borrowing costs.
The U.K.’s central bank reduced its key rate to a near three-year low of 3.75% from 4%, resuming a series of cuts that stretch back to August 2024 after a pause in November.
The BOE indicated that borrowin

Bloomberg 12/18/25
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged for a fourth straight meeting as inflation hovers around target and the euro zone weathers global shocks.
The deposit rate was kept at 2% on Thursday — as predicted by all analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Policymakers continued to offer no guidance on future steps, stressing that they’ll act one meeting at a time based on incoming data.
Fresh forecasts accompanied the decision, envisaging firmer economic expansion and inflation returning to 2% in 2028 after falling short of that level during the next two years.