(WSJ 10/11/19)

U.S. stocks surged Friday as investors cheered progress on trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, helping the S&P 500 break a three-week losing streak.

President Trump said just before the closing bell that the two countries reached a “very substantial Phase One deal” and agreed not to implement tariffs set to go into effect next week. China, meanwhile, said it would increase purchases of U.S. agricultural products.

The Dow industrials closed up 319.92 points, or 1.2%, to 26816.59. The index rose as much as 517 points earlier in the session but pared some of those gains as traders learned that two pressure points remained unresolved: a final decision on a new round of tariffs set for December and policies around Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies Co.

(Bloomberg 10/9/19)

Stocks in Europe jumped with U.S. index futures as China revived hopes of progress in trade talks with America this week despite a host of potential headwinds. Treasuries and gold turned lower. The Stoxx Europe 600 index extended gains in a broad-based advance and futures on the S&P 500 also added to an increase after a report that China is still open to agreeing on a partial trade deal with the U.S., despite tensions building this week.
* The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.7% as of 10:21 a.m. London
time.
* Futures on the S&P 500 Index jumped 0.8%.
* The U.K.‘s FTSE 100 Index gained 0.5%.
* The MSCI All-Country World Index climbed 0.1%.
* The MSCI Emerging Market Index fell 0.3%.
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries gained two basis points to
1.55%.
* The yield on two-year Treasuries increased one basis point to
1.43%.
* Britain’s 10-year yield jumped four basis points to 0.456%.
* Germany’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to -0.57%.

(Bloomberg 10/7/19)

S&P futures gap lower on report China is increasingly reluctant to agree a broad trade deal pursued by President Trump; Treasury 10-year yield drops a basis point to 1.52%. Japanese stocks slightly softer, ASX 200 index gains. Bloomberg dollar index rises; yen 0.1% stronger near 106.85/USD. Aussie 10-year futures climb 2bps to highest since August.

(Bloomberg 9/24/19)

U.S. equity-index futures advanced and European stocks rose modestly with Asian shares as investors weighed hopes for high-level trade talks next month against mixed economic data from around the globe.
Contracts on the three main U.S. equity benchmarks all pointed to a firm open after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin confirmed Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is headed to Washington in coming weeks and China was said to have given waivers for tariff-free American soy purchases.

Stocks
Futures on the S&P 500 Index increased 0.3% as of 8:28 a.m. New York time.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 0.1%.
The Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.3%.
The MSCI Emerging Market Index climbed 0.1%.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries sank three basis points to 1.70%.
The yield on two-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 1.67%.
Germany’s 10-year yield climbed less than one basis point to -0.58%.
Britain’s 10-year yield gained one basis point to 0.558%.
Japan’s 10-year yield fell three basis points to -0.234%.

(Bloomberg 9/19/19)
Swap Spreads Crater to Record Low; Basis Squeeze Effect Resumes

Dollar swap spreads resume post-FOMC slide
with 2-year tenor dropping to record low dating back to late
1980’s. The post-FOMC tightening move has accelerated over
Thursday’s U.S. afternoon session across the curve in a sign of
market disappointment after expectations had built up for the
Fed to introduce a more permanent solution to the recent repo
squeeze.

(FT 9/18/19)

The Federal Reserve cut US interest rates by 25 basis points, to a range of 1.75 to 2 per cent and signalled that it could stop there despite uncertainty over trade and fierce pressure from the White House for more accommodation.

The one-notch cut was in line with the expectations of investors and economists, but its projections show a more hawkish line than markets had anticipated. The median projection among its rate-setting committee showing a flat path through the end of 2020.

Futures data compiled by Bloomberg before the meeting showed that investors had expected two more cuts by the end of 2020.

Treasuries lost earlier gains following the Fed’s widely expected cut, with the yield on the 10-year note climbing to 1.775 per cent. The yield on the policy-sensitive two year note jumped from 1.66 per cent ahead of the announcement to 1.72 per cent.

US stocks slipped, with the S&P 500 down 0.7 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.6 per cent. Meanwhile the dollar rose 0.31 per cent.

(Bloomberg 9/12/19)

Treasuries Climb, Following Bund Rally After ECB Policy Decision

Treasury futures hit highest levels of the day as bunds jump following ECB policy decision to restart quantitative easing from November 1, while cutting deposit rate by a further 10bp to -0.5%.
European bonds rally with Italian 10-year yields dropping as much as 12bp while bunds richen ~4bp, outperforming Treasuries by 2.5bp
Treasury 10-year yields drop back to 1.70%, richer by 3.5bp on the day; front-end and belly led gains steepen 2s10s and 5s30s post-ECB announcement

(Bloomberg 8/29/19)

China indicated that it wouldn’t immediately retaliate against the latest U.S. tariff increase announced by President Donald Trump last week, emphasizing the need to discuss ways to deescalate the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

“China has ample means for retaliation, but thinks the question that should be discussed now is about removing the new tariffs to prevent escalation of the trade war,” Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng told reporters in Beijing on Thursday. “China is lodging solemn representations with the U.S. on the matter.”

Stocks across Asia pared losses and European stocks turned higher with U.S. equity futures as investors interpreted the comments as an olive branch from Beijing aimed at getting talks back on track.

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell in early trading after China announced plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion of American goods including soybeans, autos and oil.

S&P 500 down 0.4%

Dow Jones Industrial Average falls 0.4%

Nasdaq Composite down 0.6%

(Bloomberg) -- European equities sharply erased gains as automakers and oil shares slumped after China retaliated against the U.S. with additional tariffs.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 0.3% after wiping out an advance of as much as 0.6%. China will slap an extra 5% tariff on American soybeans and crude-oil imports starting next month, and a 25% duty on U.S. cars will resume Dec. 15. Total SA and BP Plc fell at least 1% and Daimler AG tumbled 2.2%.

(Bloomberg) -- The greenback reached the highest since December after reports China will levy retaliatory tariffs on another $75b of U.S. goods in two batches, on Sept. 1 and Dec. 15. China will impose an extra 5% tariff on soy beans from Sept. 1 and will resume 25% duties on autos from Dec. 15.

(Bloomberg) -- Oil tumbled in New York, erasing this week’s gain, as China’s retaliation against U.S. tariffs spurred fears the trade war will deal an even bigger blow to demand.

Futures fell 3.1%, turning what had been a weekly gain into a loss of 2.3%. China will impose additional levies on $75 billion of U.S. goods, with tariffs of 5% on imports of American crude, in response to President Donald Trump’s latest moves

(Bloomberg)November soybean futures in Chicago fell as much as 0.9% after the news, reaching a two-week low. The contract had been trading higher earlier in the session.

(Bloomberg 8/15/19)

Stocks Slide as China Vows Tariff Countermeasures: Markets Wrap

U.S. equity futures fell and European stocks
slumped on Thursday as China stepped up its trade-war rhetoric,
roiling markets that had been starting to calm. Treasuries and
European bonds rallied.
Futures for the three main U.S. stock gauges had jumped
during the Asian session in the wake of Wednesday’s rout, but
they reversed after Beijing pledged countermeasures to the next
round of tariffs threatened by the White House, saying they
violate accords already reached by Presidents Donald Trump and
Xi Jinping.
* Futures on the S&P 500 Index dipped 0.4% as of 7:02 a.m. New
York time.
* The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1.2%.
* The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index fell 1.6%.
* The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.7%.
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell six basis points to
1.52%.
* The yield on two-year Treasuries decreased seven basis points
to 1.51%.
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to -0.68%.
* Britain’s 10-year yield dipped three basis points to 0.448%.

(Bloomberg 8/9/19 )

USTs Gain as Stocks Slip; Trump Says China Talks May Be Canceled

Treasuries underpinned as S&P500 futures drop to lows of the day after Trump says September talks with China could be canceled.
UST 10-year futures climb back through 130 level, remain inside 130-08 Asia session highs; yields edge back under 1.70% level, remain richer by 2bp on the day
S&P500 e-minis lower by 0.8% on the day; software, media and tech sectors lead cash markets lower

(Bloomberg 7/31/19)

Powell Signals Rate Cut Isn't Necessarily Start of Easing Cycle
Short Treasuries Fall After Powell Calls Fed Rate Cut Insurance
S&P 500 Extends Decline To 1.5%, Most Since May; VIX Spikes

Treasuries sharply retreat from highs, with short-end yields erasing declines, after Fed Chair Powell says the FOMC views its rate-cut decision as a “mid-cycle adjustment” and that the rate cut was aimed at insuring against downside risks.
Treasury yields rise sharply from lowest levels of the session, reached during the initial reaction to rate cut and decision to end balance-sheet run-off earlier than planned
After declining nearly 4bp, 2-year yields rebounded to cheaper on the day and higher by more than 8bp, reaching 1.94%; 2s10s extends flattening, tighter by 10bp on the day while 5s30s tightens more than 8bp

(Bloomberg 7/25/19)

ECB Signals Rate Cut, QE as Global Stimulus Push Picks Up
Governing Council changes policy language to prime for easing
U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to lower rates next week

The European Central Bank sent its strongest signal yet that monetary support for the euro-area economy will be stepped up after the summer break, with lower interest rates and renewed asset purchases on the table.

President Mario Draghi and fellow policy makers said on Thursday they expect borrowing costs to stay at present levels “or lower” through at least the first half of 2020, opening room for a September reduction in the deposit rate from the record low of minus 0.4%. Officials also signaled they will restart their bond-buying program if needed.

Germany’s 10-year bond yield dropped to a record-low minus 0.42% and the euro slid 0.3% to as low as $1.1108. Bank shares rallied as policy makers said they’ll consider measures to offset the squeeze on lenders’ profitability from negative rates

(Bloomberg 7/1/19)

Nasdaq futures jump as much as 1.7% amid U.S.-China trade truce and Trump-Kim plan to resume nuclear talks; S&P futures 0.9% higher. Shanghai Comp rises 1.9% and Shenzhen Comp 2.9% higher; yuan 0.4% stronger. Treasury 10-year yield adds 2bps near 2.03%; Aussie bonds erase most losses ahead of Tuesday’s rate decision. Bloomberg dollar index gains first time in four days; Swiss franc and yen the biggest G-10 losers

(Bloomberg 6/6/19)

Yen Gains With Treasuries on U.S.-Mexico Tensions: Inside G-10
The yen snapped a two-day decline versus the dollar and Treasuries advanced as demand for haven assets rose after trade talks between the U.S. and Mexican officials ended without an agreement Wednesday.
Speculation that the U.S. will follow through with tariffs next week increased as President Donald Trump said “not nearly enough” progress was made in discussions with Mexico to mitigate the flow of undocumented migrants and illegal drugs. Talks will resume Thursday, he said.
USD/JPY slid as much as 0.3% before trading 0.2% lower at 108.21. USD/MXN jumped as much as 1.3% .

(Associated Press 5/29/19)

Global stocks plunge after China hints it could unleash a 'powerful' trade war weapon by limiting US rare-earth supply

State-aligned newspapers warned China is prepared to cut off supplies of rare-earth metals.

"We advise the US side not to underestimate the Chinese side's ability to safeguard its development rights and interests," one editorial read. "Don't say we didn't warn you!"

Investors' flight to bonds pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield to a 19-month low.

World markets slumped on Wednesday as traders braced for further escalation in the US-China trade war. State-aligned Chinese newspapers warned the Asian nation is prepared to cut off America's supply of rare-earth metals, spurring investors to ditch stocks for bonds.

"Will rare earths become a counter weapon for China to hit back against the pressure the United States has put on for no reason at all?" wrote the editorial board of the People's Daily, according to Reuters. "The answer is no mystery."

The newspaper noted America's "uncomfortable" dependence on so-called rare earths, a group of 17 chemical elements used in a wide range of electronic devices including smartphones, car batteries, and missile-defence systems. The US relied on China for than 80% of its rare-earth imports between 2014 and 2017, and ramped up purchases by 17% to $160 million last year, according to Bloomberg.

(Bloomberg 6/10/19)

Yuan Slides to Lowest of the Year After PBOC Chief's Comments

Onshore yuan tumbles as much as 0.29% to 6.9319 a dollar, the lowest level since Dec. 3, after the chief of China’s central bank hinted there’s no red line for the currency.
See: Yuan Slides as China’s Yi Gang Hints No Red Line, Open to Easing
Pares drop to 0.27% at 6.9306 as of 9:49am in Shanghai
Offshore yuan steady at 6.9469

(Bloomberg 5/10/19)

Stocks continued their downward ways Friday following newly implemented
tariffs that marked the latest salvos in the escalating U.S.-China trade war
as talks between the two countries ended for the day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 326 points, or 1.26%, to 25,501, the S&P
500 declined 1.37% and the Nasdaq was down 1.75%.

(Bloomberg 2/20/19)
Italian bonds decline and Bunds rise as ECB’s Peter Praet says TLTROs will be discussed soon, even though it’s unclear yet whether a decision will be taken.
BTPs bear flatten and FTSE MIB falls, underperforming euro-area peers, led by the banking index
10-year yield spread to Germany widens 6bps to 274bps
Bunds pare gains as Bobl auction sees underbidding of 1c even as demand increases to 1.6x from 1.2x prior
German 10y yield -1bp to 0.10%; March Bund futures +17 ticks to 166.59; France 10y -1bp to 0.52%; Italy 10y +5bps to 2.84%

(Bloomberg 12/20/18)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell
suggested he’ll be more cautious about raising interest rates
next year, disappointing investors who wanted even more
dovishness.
“There’s significant uncertainty about both the path and
the ultimate destination of any further rate increases,’’ he
told a press conference Wednesday after the U.S. central bank
bumped its target range for rates up by a quarter percentage
point to 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent.
Investors gave Powell and the Fed the thumbs down, with the
worst stock market decline for any Federal Open Market Committee
announcement day since 2011. The selling gathered pace in Asia,
with Japanese equities sliding into a bear market.
Some analysts attributed the global sell-off to
disappointment that the Federal Open Market Committee hadn’t
signaled that it was finished raising rates after its fourth
increase this year, which defied President Trump’s calls for
steady rates.