AFP 12/19/25
The Bank of Japan hiked interest rates to a 30-year high on Friday and indicated more were in the pipeline as it said the economy had shown signs of improvement.
The unanimous vote to lift the main borrowing rate to 0.75 percent from 0.5 percent came hours after official data showed the country’s core inflation rate held steady in November but was still well above policymakers’ two percent target.

RBA Leaves Cash Rate Target at 3.60%; Est. 3.60%
Bloomberg 11/4/25
In a statement after the November policy
meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia said:
“The recent data on inflation suggest that some
inflationary pressure may remain in the economy. With private
demand recovering and labour market conditions still appearing a
little tight, the Board decided that it was appropriate to
maintain the cash rate at its current level at this meeting.
Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year,
but it will take some time to see the full effects of earlier
cash rate reductions. Given this, and the recent evidence of
more persistent inflation, the Board judged that it was
appropriate to remain cautious, updating its view of the outlook
as the data evolve.

Financial Times 10/30/25
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have agreed to postpone export controls on rare earths and chips as part of a broad one-year trade deal reached by the US and Chinese leaders at a summit in South Korea.

The US and China said they also reached agreements on American tariffs related to fentanyl and tit-for-tat levies on each other’s shipping industries, as both leaders sought to ease tensions in their first meeting in six years.

Trump said the leaders had also discussed semiconductors, and that Nvidia would talk to China about exporting chips, but he said the discussions did not cover the most advanced microelectronics.

The president said he would visit China in April and that Xi would make a reciprocal visit to the US.

After the summit, China’s commerce ministry confirmed that Beijing had agreed to suspend the implementation of the rare earths export controls and that the US would suspend the extension of its technology-related export controls to subsidiaries of Chinese companies announced late last month, also for one year.

Truth Social – @realDonald Trump 11/24/25
I just had a very good telephone call with President Xi, of China. We discussed many topics including Ukraine/Russia, Fentanyl, Soybeans and other Farm Products, etc. We have done a good, and very important, deal for our Great Farmers — and it will only get better. Our relationship with China is extremely strong! This call was a follow up to our highly successful meeting in South Korea, three weeks ago. Since then, there has been significant progress on both sides in keeping our agreements current and accurate. Now we can set our sights on the big picture. To that end, President Xi invited me to visit Beijing in April, which I accepted, and I reciprocated where he will be my guest for a State Visit in the U.S. later in the year.

Dow Jones – OTTAWA 10/29/25
The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate for the fourth time this year, to 2.25%, and signaled it might leave rates unchanged for the foreseeable future to aid an economy struggling under the weight of U.S. tariffs.
“If the economy evolves roughly in line with the outlook,” Macklem said, “the governing council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment.” The central bank sets interest rates to achieve and maintain 2% inflation.

Bloomberg 10/24/25
Treasuries gained after a delayed report on inflation showed consumer prices rose less than expected, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.
Yields on two-year notes — which are most sensitive to changes in monetary policy — dipped as much as five basis points. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes fell back below 4% after the reading, approaching their lowest levels since April.
Interest-rate swaps signaled traders all but fully priced in a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s meeting next week, followed by another reduction in December.

Bloomberg 10/30/25
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged for a third meeting, with inflation in check and the economy continuing to grow.
“The robust labor market, solid private sector balance sheets and the Governing Council’s past interest-rate cuts remain important sources of resilience,” the ECB said in a statement. “However, the outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions.”
Officials have been vocal of late in signaling that there’s little reason to add to the eight reductions in borrowing costs they’ve made to date. Their confidence stems from inflation that’s been hovering around the 2% goal for months and indications that the economic damage from Donald Trump’s trade measures has been relatively contained.

Bloomberg 10/20/25
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party
signed a coalition deal with the Japan Innovation Party, setting
up Sanae Takaichi to become the country’s first female prime
minister.
LDP President Takaichi and Hirofumi Yoshimura, co-leader of
the JIP, known as Ishin, signed the coalition agreement on
Monday evening.

Bloomberg 10/16/25
Treasuries extend gains and futures push to fresh highs of the day led by the front-end of the curve, steepening 2s10s spread out to fresh session wides. Into the move, 2-year yields drop to lowest since Sept. 2022 to around 3.425% and richer by almost 7bp on the day.
Treasuries bull steepen with yields 7bp to 2bp lower across the curve; Fed-dated OIS shifts to fully price in two 25bp rate cuts over the remaining two meetings this year

Bloomberg 10/14/25
US President Donald Trump said he would
impose an additional 100% tariff on China and export controls on
“any and all critical software” beginning November 1, hours
after threatening to cancel an upcoming meeting with the
country’s leader, Xi Jinping.
“It has just been learned that China has taken an
extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an
extremely hostile letter to the World, stating that they were
going to, effective November 1st, 2025, impose large scale
Export Controls on virtually every product they make, and some
not even made by them,” Trump said in a social media post.

BBG 10/30/25
Bank of Japan Governor
Kazuo Ueda mixed hawkish and dovish tones, keeping flexibility
to raise rates in either December or January after the central
bank left policy unchanged Thursday. He said confidence in the
BOJ’s outlook is increasing — a precondition for tightening —
hinting a December move is possible. He also stressed the
central bank makes its decisions independently of politics.

Bloomberg 9/23/25
Powell’s remarks hewed closely to those he made in a press conference on Sept. 17 after Fed policymakers lowered the central bank’s benchmark interest rate to a range of 4%-4.25%, the first reduction of 2025. Powell at the press conference described the move as a “risk-management cut” aimed at responding to growing warning signs in the labor market.

Dow Jones 9/17/25
Fed governor Stephen Miran has been on the job barely over 24 hours, yet he is starting his tenure with a splash. Miran is the lone dissenter against the Fed’s quarter-point rate cut in September, voting instead in favor of a larger 50-basis-point cut. Analysts had speculated that Trump-appointed governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller were other possible dissenters in favor of a larger cut, but both chose to back the majority’s quarter-point move. And despite voicing skepticism of cuts in recent months, hawkish Kansas City Fed president Jeffrey Schmid also raised his hand in favor of the quarter-point rate reduction. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

Wall Street Journal 10/29/25
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates at its second consecutive meeting on Wednesday, extending an effort to prevent a recent slowdown in hiring from turning into something more serious.
The latest quarter-point cut will reduce the Fed’s benchmark short-term interest rate to a range between 3.75% and 4%, the lowest setting in three years and down from a peak of around 5.4% that the central bank maintained for much of last year.

Bloomberg 9/11/25
German bonds are paring losses across the curve after the European Central Bank retained key language from its guidance but raised its inflation forecast for this year and the next in what is a carefully balanced report.

Here’s the relevant part from its statement:
“It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance…The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.”

That is virtually a repeat of what it had said in July. The message, clearly, is that the governing council is reluctant to surrender the optionality of cutting rates further should the euro-zone economy weaken.

Bloomberg 9/5/25
US Treasuries rallied as a weaker-than-expected jobs report prompted traders to fully price an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.
Yields on two-year notes, which are most sensitive to changes in monetary policy, fell as much as 8 basis points to 3.5%,
Interest-rate swaps showed traders priced in a 98% probability of a quarter-point cut by the Fed at the Sept. 17 meeting. A total of 142 basis points of easing were expected over the next 12 months.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 22,000 in August after a combined 21,000 downward revision to the prior months, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report out Friday. The jobless rate ticked up to 4.3%, the highest level since late 2021.

Bloomberg 8/29/25
China’s central bank is nudging the yuan
higher, stoking speculation of a subtle shift in strategy toward
favoring a stronger exchange rate after strong exports
brightened the nation’s growth outlook.
The People’s Bank of China raised its daily reference rate
for the yuan by the most in nearly a year this week even as the
dollar was largely unchanged. This may signal authorities are
not only comfortable with a stronger currency but looking to
engineer a gradual appreciation, according to some market
watchers.

Bloomberg 12/31/25
China handed yuan bulls a New Year’s gift
with tacit consent for more appreciation, while carefully pacing
the currency’s gains to avoid hurting exporters and accelerating
hot-money inflows.
The People’s Bank of China set the yuan’s daily reference
rate on Wednesday at a fresh high since September 2024, a day
after it allowed the currency to pierce through the key 7-per-
dollar level in the more tightly controlled onshore market. That
followed the yuan’s breach of the threshold in largely
unrestricted offshore trading last week.

Bloomberg 9/25/25
President Martin Schlegel and his two colleagues kept their benchmark at zero, acknowledging that the 39% levy imposed by Donald Trump — the highest for any advanced economy — will cause pain, while insisting that the fallout isn’t yet widespread enough to justify a cut.
“The bar to go into negative territory with interest rates is certainly higher than just a normal rate cut,” Schlegel said. “We are aware that this negative interest rates could be a challenge for many actors in the economy. At the same time if it’s really necessary to fulfill our mandate we are ready to use all the tools that are available — also negative interest rates.”

Bloomberg 9/5/25
The Canadian economy surprisingly shed jobs for a second consecutive month as the unemployment rate jumped, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada this month.
Employment fell by 65,500 positions in August, driven by decreases in part-time work. The jobless rate rose to 7.1%, Statistics Canada data showed Friday. The number of job losses surpassed even the most pessimistic projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists — the median forecast was for 5,000 jobs to be created.
Losses were led by self-employment and service-related industries — transportation, professional services and education sectors all shed jobs. Employment fell by more than 19,000 positions in the manufacturing sector.
The yield on benchmark two-year Canada government bonds fell about 6 basis points to 2.554%, while the loonie fluctuated to trade at C$1.38 per US dollar as of 8:40 a.m. in Ottawa. Traders boosted bets that the Bank of Canada would lower rates at its next meeting Sept. 17, pricing in about an 80% chance of a cut.

Dow Jones – Ottawa 9/17/25
The Bank of Canada cut on Wednesday its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point to 2.5%, citing a weaker job market and waning momentum in underlying inflation.
This marks a resumption of rate cuts for Canada’s central bank, after a six-month pause as officials worried about upward pressure on inflation from tariffs. Gov. Tiff Macklem said data suggest that upward momentum in core inflation — which strips out volatile items like food and energy — has “dissipated,” and Canada’s decision to abandon most retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products “will mean less pressure on the prices of these goods going forward.”

Bloomberg 8/14/25
Treasury futures on lows of the day after July PPI data prints well above estimate across both headline and core readings.
US yields flip to cheaper on the day by around 3bp across front-end of the curve while in long-end yields rise back to unchanged on the day
Fed-dated OIS sees rate cut premium fade over coming months with 22bp of cuts priced for the September meeting vs. 25bp priced Wednesday close and a combined 58bp of cuts for the year vs. 63bp prior

“Divided US Fed backs second quarter-point rate cut of 2025”
AFP 10/29/25
The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced its second consecutive quarter-point rate cut to bolster the flagging labor market, unveiling a decision that highlighted the growing division in its ranks.
Policymakers voted 10-2 in favor of lowering the bank’s key lending rate to between 3.75 percent and 4.00 percent, the Fed said in a statement.
Opposed to the action were Fed governor Stephen Miran, who backed a bigger half-point cut, and Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid, who “preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting,” the Fed said.

Bloomberg 8/12/25
Australia’s central bank chief signaled a
“couple more” interest-rate cuts will be required to achieve its
latest forecasts after the policy board eased as anticipated on
Tuesday.
The Reserve Bank cut its key rate to 3.6% in a unanimous
decision and has now delivered 75 basis points of easing in the
current campaign.