Bloomberg 12/18/25
Although the Bank of England cut rates, the vote pattern and the tone of its statement give it a hawkish slant.

The BOE cut rates by just a 5-4 margin, indicating that some of the hawks on the committee are still not convinced that inflationary pressures are waning sufficiently.

The BOE’s guidance is also more cautious, with the central bank saying that the extent of further easing will depend on the evolution of the inflation outlook and that “judgements around further easing will become a closer call.”

Dow Jones 1/28/26
Bank of Canada keeps its main interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, as widely expected. The theme of the first policy decision of 2026 is uncertainty. Gov. Tiff Macklem refers to uncertainty 7 times in prepared remarks for a press conference. “Uncertainty around this outlook is unusually high,” says Macklem. In the official decision, BOC revises its final paragraph, to explain that while the benchmark rate is at an appropriate level, “uncertainty is heightened and we are monitoring risks closely.” In the December decision, BOC referred to uncertainty as “elevated.” (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

Wall Street Journal 12/10/25
Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates at their third consecutive meeting but signaled little appetite for more amid unusual internal divisions over whether inflation or the job market should be their bigger worry.
The Fed voted 9-3 for the reduction on Wednesday, the first time in six years that three officials cast dissents. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid thought the reduction wasn’t warranted, while Fed governor Stephen Miran favored a larger, half-point cut.
The decision to reduce the benchmark federal-funds rate by a quarter point — to between 3.5% and 3.75%, a three-year low — is aimed at protecting against a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in hiring.
With progress on inflation stalled, officials had indicated in the run-up to this week’s decision that further reductions could require evidence of labor-market deterioration.
On Wednesday, their painstakingly calibrated post-meeting statement signaled a higher bar to additional cuts — echoing a similar pivot to the sidelines after cutting rates one year ago — by saying that the “extent and timing” of those moves would depend on changes in the economic outlook.

Bloomberg 12/10/25
Median assessment of appropriate federal funds rate at the end of each calendar year and over the longer run:
2025: 3.625% (range 3.375% to 3.875%); prior 3.625%
2026: 3.375% (range 2.125% to 3.875%); prior 3.375%
2027: 3.125% (range 2.375% to 3.875%); prior 3.125%
2028: 3.125% (range 2.625% to 3.875%); prior 3.125%
Longer Run: 3.000% (range 2.625% to 3.875%); prior 3.000%

“Federal Reserve cuts key rate but signals higher bar for future reductions”
WASHINGTON (AP) – 12/10/25
The Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate for the third time in a row Wednesday but signaled that it may leave rates unchanged in the coming months, a move that could attract ire from President Donald Trump, who has demanded steep reductions to borrowing costs.
In a statement released after a two-day meeting, the Fed’s rate-setting committee signaled that it may keep its rate unchanged in the coming months. And in a set of quarterly economic projections, Fed officials signaled they expect to lower rates just once next year.

New York Times 12/10/25
The central bank’s decision to lower interest rates for a third straight meeting was highly contentious, reflecting an internal divide that will likely limit how much borrowing costs will fall next year.
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday in what was a highly contentious decision, suggesting officials may be reluctant to lower borrowing costs much further unless the labor market weakens sharply.
The decision to cut for a third meeting in a row shifted interest rates to a new range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent. It marked the fourth straight vote that was not backed by all members of the 12-person Federal Open Market Committee, underscoring how fractured the central bank has become as it grapples with the risk of both rising unemployment and sticky inflation.

Dow Jones, Ottawa 12/10/25
The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady on Wednesday and said officials were sticking with their outlook for moderate growth even though recent economic data point to signs of upward momentum.
The central bank left its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, adding that policymakers believe it sits at an appropriate level to keep total inflation close to 2% while offering some stimulus for an economy squeezed by U.S. tariffs.
The decision likely marks the start of a prolonged pause in Canadian rate policy, following aggressive steps over a roughly 16-month period to roll back interest-rate hikes meant to contain historically-high inflation.

Bloomberg 12/9/25
Australia’s central bank Governor Michele
Bullock called an end to a truncated easing cycle as
policymakers gauge whether a pickup in inflation requires an
extended interest-rate pause or a switch to tightening.
Bond yields spiked to a 13-month high after the governor on
Tuesday said that price risks have “tilted to the upside”
following the Reserve Bank board’s widely-expected decision to
hold the cash rate at 3.6%.
“I don’t think there are interest rate cuts on the horizon
for the foreseeable future,” Bullock told reporters. “The
question is, is it just an extended hold from here or is it the
possibility of a rate rise. I couldn’t put a probability on
those but I think they’re the two things that the board will be
looking closely at coming into the new year.”

Dow Jones TOKYO 12/19/25
The Bank of Japan lifted interest rates to a level not seen in three decades, tightening policy settings again after an almost yearlong pause.
The central bank on Friday raised its overnight call rate target to 0.75% from 0.5%, reflecting policymakers’ growing confidence that wage growth and inflation are moving in sync. The hike, the BOJ’s first since January, puts borrowing costs at their highest level since 1995.

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) 12/18/25
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged Thursday for the fourth meeting in a row as the economy in the 20 countries that use the euro increasingly looks strong enough to get by without the stimulus of lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.
The bank’s rate-setting council left the benchmark deposit rate unchanged at 2%, where it has been since a rate cut in June. Economists now think the rate could stay right there for months – and possibly into 2027.

The Guardian 12/18/25
The Bank of England has cut interest rates by a quarter point for the fourth time this year, delivering a pre-Christmas boost to the struggling UK economy.
After leaving borrowing costs on hold in a split vote last month before the budget, the Bank’s nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC) said on Thursday it would reduce the base rate from 4% to 3.75%.
The latest rate cut – the sixth since Labour came to power last year – will be welcomed by the chancellor, Rachel Reeves.
Reeves announced a series of inflation-fighting measures at her November budget that were partly aimed at increasing the Bank’s room to manoeuvre to cut rates.

Bloomberg Economics 12/11/25
The Swiss National Bank confirmed it is looking through recent weakness in inflation by holding its interest rate steady at 0%, despite a downgrade of its inflation forecasts. This sets the stage for further decisions to hold over coming meetings, as the price outlook is expected to gradually improve.
During the press conference, SNB President Martin Schlegel reiterated the central bank’s tolerance for inflation remaining at the bottom of its targeted range (0%-2%). This confirms the high bar for a negative interest rates policy. The focus over the coming months shifts to communication, notably around the potential for targeted FX interventions, through the publication of the minutes of this meeting later in January.

Wall Street Journal 12/18/25
The Bank of England cut its key interest rate Thursday, moving in step with the Federal Reserve rather than many peers in Europe, which have entered a period of steadier borrowing costs.
The U.K.’s central bank reduced its key rate to a near three-year low of 3.75% from 4%, resuming a series of cuts that stretch back to August 2024 after a pause in November.
The BOE indicated that borrowin

Bloomberg 12/18/25
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged for a fourth straight meeting as inflation hovers around target and the euro zone weathers global shocks.
The deposit rate was kept at 2% on Thursday — as predicted by all analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Policymakers continued to offer no guidance on future steps, stressing that they’ll act one meeting at a time based on incoming data.
Fresh forecasts accompanied the decision, envisaging firmer economic expansion and inflation returning to 2% in 2028 after falling short of that level during the next two years.

AFP 12/19/25
The Bank of Japan hiked interest rates to a 30-year high on Friday and indicated more were in the pipeline as it said the economy had shown signs of improvement.
The unanimous vote to lift the main borrowing rate to 0.75 percent from 0.5 percent came hours after official data showed the country’s core inflation rate held steady in November but was still well above policymakers’ two percent target.

RBA Leaves Cash Rate Target at 3.60%; Est. 3.60%
Bloomberg 11/4/25
In a statement after the November policy
meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia said:
“The recent data on inflation suggest that some
inflationary pressure may remain in the economy. With private
demand recovering and labour market conditions still appearing a
little tight, the Board decided that it was appropriate to
maintain the cash rate at its current level at this meeting.
Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year,
but it will take some time to see the full effects of earlier
cash rate reductions. Given this, and the recent evidence of
more persistent inflation, the Board judged that it was
appropriate to remain cautious, updating its view of the outlook
as the data evolve.

Financial Times 10/30/25
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping have agreed to postpone export controls on rare earths and chips as part of a broad one-year trade deal reached by the US and Chinese leaders at a summit in South Korea.

The US and China said they also reached agreements on American tariffs related to fentanyl and tit-for-tat levies on each other’s shipping industries, as both leaders sought to ease tensions in their first meeting in six years.

Trump said the leaders had also discussed semiconductors, and that Nvidia would talk to China about exporting chips, but he said the discussions did not cover the most advanced microelectronics.

The president said he would visit China in April and that Xi would make a reciprocal visit to the US.

After the summit, China’s commerce ministry confirmed that Beijing had agreed to suspend the implementation of the rare earths export controls and that the US would suspend the extension of its technology-related export controls to subsidiaries of Chinese companies announced late last month, also for one year.

Truth Social – @realDonald Trump 11/24/25
I just had a very good telephone call with President Xi, of China. We discussed many topics including Ukraine/Russia, Fentanyl, Soybeans and other Farm Products, etc. We have done a good, and very important, deal for our Great Farmers — and it will only get better. Our relationship with China is extremely strong! This call was a follow up to our highly successful meeting in South Korea, three weeks ago. Since then, there has been significant progress on both sides in keeping our agreements current and accurate. Now we can set our sights on the big picture. To that end, President Xi invited me to visit Beijing in April, which I accepted, and I reciprocated where he will be my guest for a State Visit in the U.S. later in the year.

Dow Jones – OTTAWA 10/29/25
The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate for the fourth time this year, to 2.25%, and signaled it might leave rates unchanged for the foreseeable future to aid an economy struggling under the weight of U.S. tariffs.
“If the economy evolves roughly in line with the outlook,” Macklem said, “the governing council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment.” The central bank sets interest rates to achieve and maintain 2% inflation.

Bloomberg 10/24/25
Treasuries gained after a delayed report on inflation showed consumer prices rose less than expected, reinforcing bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.
Yields on two-year notes — which are most sensitive to changes in monetary policy — dipped as much as five basis points. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes fell back below 4% after the reading, approaching their lowest levels since April.
Interest-rate swaps signaled traders all but fully priced in a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s meeting next week, followed by another reduction in December.

Bloomberg 10/30/25
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged for a third meeting, with inflation in check and the economy continuing to grow.
“The robust labor market, solid private sector balance sheets and the Governing Council’s past interest-rate cuts remain important sources of resilience,” the ECB said in a statement. “However, the outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions.”
Officials have been vocal of late in signaling that there’s little reason to add to the eight reductions in borrowing costs they’ve made to date. Their confidence stems from inflation that’s been hovering around the 2% goal for months and indications that the economic damage from Donald Trump’s trade measures has been relatively contained.

Bloomberg 10/20/25
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party
signed a coalition deal with the Japan Innovation Party, setting
up Sanae Takaichi to become the country’s first female prime
minister.
LDP President Takaichi and Hirofumi Yoshimura, co-leader of
the JIP, known as Ishin, signed the coalition agreement on
Monday evening.

Bloomberg 10/16/25
Treasuries extend gains and futures push to fresh highs of the day led by the front-end of the curve, steepening 2s10s spread out to fresh session wides. Into the move, 2-year yields drop to lowest since Sept. 2022 to around 3.425% and richer by almost 7bp on the day.
Treasuries bull steepen with yields 7bp to 2bp lower across the curve; Fed-dated OIS shifts to fully price in two 25bp rate cuts over the remaining two meetings this year

Bloomberg 10/14/25
US President Donald Trump said he would
impose an additional 100% tariff on China and export controls on
“any and all critical software” beginning November 1, hours
after threatening to cancel an upcoming meeting with the
country’s leader, Xi Jinping.
“It has just been learned that China has taken an
extraordinarily aggressive position on Trade in sending an
extremely hostile letter to the World, stating that they were
going to, effective November 1st, 2025, impose large scale
Export Controls on virtually every product they make, and some
not even made by them,” Trump said in a social media post.