Dow Jones 9/17/25
Fed governor Stephen Miran has been on the job barely over 24 hours, yet he is starting his tenure with a splash. Miran is the lone dissenter against the Fed’s quarter-point rate cut in September, voting instead in favor of a larger 50-basis-point cut. Analysts had speculated that Trump-appointed governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller were other possible dissenters in favor of a larger cut, but both chose to back the majority’s quarter-point move. And despite voicing skepticism of cuts in recent months, hawkish Kansas City Fed president Jeffrey Schmid also raised his hand in favor of the quarter-point rate reduction. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

Wall Street Journal 10/29/25
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates at its second consecutive meeting on Wednesday, extending an effort to prevent a recent slowdown in hiring from turning into something more serious.
The latest quarter-point cut will reduce the Fed’s benchmark short-term interest rate to a range between 3.75% and 4%, the lowest setting in three years and down from a peak of around 5.4% that the central bank maintained for much of last year.

Bloomberg 9/11/25
German bonds are paring losses across the curve after the European Central Bank retained key language from its guidance but raised its inflation forecast for this year and the next in what is a carefully balanced report.

Here’s the relevant part from its statement:
“It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance…The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.”

That is virtually a repeat of what it had said in July. The message, clearly, is that the governing council is reluctant to surrender the optionality of cutting rates further should the euro-zone economy weaken.

Bloomberg 9/5/25
US Treasuries rallied as a weaker-than-expected jobs report prompted traders to fully price an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.
Yields on two-year notes, which are most sensitive to changes in monetary policy, fell as much as 8 basis points to 3.5%,
Interest-rate swaps showed traders priced in a 98% probability of a quarter-point cut by the Fed at the Sept. 17 meeting. A total of 142 basis points of easing were expected over the next 12 months.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 22,000 in August after a combined 21,000 downward revision to the prior months, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report out Friday. The jobless rate ticked up to 4.3%, the highest level since late 2021.

Bloomberg 8/29/25
China’s central bank is nudging the yuan
higher, stoking speculation of a subtle shift in strategy toward
favoring a stronger exchange rate after strong exports
brightened the nation’s growth outlook.
The People’s Bank of China raised its daily reference rate
for the yuan by the most in nearly a year this week even as the
dollar was largely unchanged. This may signal authorities are
not only comfortable with a stronger currency but looking to
engineer a gradual appreciation, according to some market
watchers.

Bloomberg 12/31/25
China handed yuan bulls a New Year’s gift
with tacit consent for more appreciation, while carefully pacing
the currency’s gains to avoid hurting exporters and accelerating
hot-money inflows.
The People’s Bank of China set the yuan’s daily reference
rate on Wednesday at a fresh high since September 2024, a day
after it allowed the currency to pierce through the key 7-per-
dollar level in the more tightly controlled onshore market. That
followed the yuan’s breach of the threshold in largely
unrestricted offshore trading last week.

Bloomberg 9/25/25
President Martin Schlegel and his two colleagues kept their benchmark at zero, acknowledging that the 39% levy imposed by Donald Trump — the highest for any advanced economy — will cause pain, while insisting that the fallout isn’t yet widespread enough to justify a cut.
“The bar to go into negative territory with interest rates is certainly higher than just a normal rate cut,” Schlegel said. “We are aware that this negative interest rates could be a challenge for many actors in the economy. At the same time if it’s really necessary to fulfill our mandate we are ready to use all the tools that are available — also negative interest rates.”

Bloomberg 9/5/25
The Canadian economy surprisingly shed jobs for a second consecutive month as the unemployment rate jumped, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada this month.
Employment fell by 65,500 positions in August, driven by decreases in part-time work. The jobless rate rose to 7.1%, Statistics Canada data showed Friday. The number of job losses surpassed even the most pessimistic projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists — the median forecast was for 5,000 jobs to be created.
Losses were led by self-employment and service-related industries — transportation, professional services and education sectors all shed jobs. Employment fell by more than 19,000 positions in the manufacturing sector.
The yield on benchmark two-year Canada government bonds fell about 6 basis points to 2.554%, while the loonie fluctuated to trade at C$1.38 per US dollar as of 8:40 a.m. in Ottawa. Traders boosted bets that the Bank of Canada would lower rates at its next meeting Sept. 17, pricing in about an 80% chance of a cut.

Dow Jones – Ottawa 9/17/25
The Bank of Canada cut on Wednesday its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point to 2.5%, citing a weaker job market and waning momentum in underlying inflation.
This marks a resumption of rate cuts for Canada’s central bank, after a six-month pause as officials worried about upward pressure on inflation from tariffs. Gov. Tiff Macklem said data suggest that upward momentum in core inflation — which strips out volatile items like food and energy — has “dissipated,” and Canada’s decision to abandon most retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products “will mean less pressure on the prices of these goods going forward.”

Bloomberg 8/14/25
Treasury futures on lows of the day after July PPI data prints well above estimate across both headline and core readings.
US yields flip to cheaper on the day by around 3bp across front-end of the curve while in long-end yields rise back to unchanged on the day
Fed-dated OIS sees rate cut premium fade over coming months with 22bp of cuts priced for the September meeting vs. 25bp priced Wednesday close and a combined 58bp of cuts for the year vs. 63bp prior

“Divided US Fed backs second quarter-point rate cut of 2025”
AFP 10/29/25
The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced its second consecutive quarter-point rate cut to bolster the flagging labor market, unveiling a decision that highlighted the growing division in its ranks.
Policymakers voted 10-2 in favor of lowering the bank’s key lending rate to between 3.75 percent and 4.00 percent, the Fed said in a statement.
Opposed to the action were Fed governor Stephen Miran, who backed a bigger half-point cut, and Kansas City Fed president Jeff Schmid, who “preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting,” the Fed said.

Bloomberg 8/12/25
Australia’s central bank chief signaled a
“couple more” interest-rate cuts will be required to achieve its
latest forecasts after the policy board eased as anticipated on
Tuesday.
The Reserve Bank cut its key rate to 3.6% in a unanimous
decision and has now delivered 75 basis points of easing in the
current campaign.

New York Times 8/1/25
The Federal Reserve held rates steady in July but two governors dissented, saying they had concerns about labor market fragility.
The strength of the labor market has been one of the main reasons that Federal Reserve policymakers have felt comfortable waiting to cut interest rates in recent months.
The surprisingly weak jobs report on Friday is likely to change that equation.
Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, described the labor market as “solid” as recently as Wednesday, pointing to the low unemployment rate and solid job gains to justify the central bank’s decision to hold interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting.
But the data on Friday called that assessment into question. The unemployment rate ticked up only slightly, to 4.2 percent. But large downward revisions to job growth in May and June suggested that the labor market has not been as strong in recent months as policymakers believed.

Bloomberg 8/7/25
The Bank of England cut interest rates to
the lowest in over two years in a closer-than-expected decision
that pitted the prospect of inflation hitting 4% against a
weakening jobs market.
Five members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for the
quarter-point reduction to 4%, while four backed no change. That
followed an earlier three-way split that failed to reach a
majority. It was the first time in the 28-year history of the
panel that two rounds of voting were needed to reach a
presentable outcome on rates.
Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli, Chief Economist Huw Pill
along with externals Catherine Mann and Megan Greene were those
who opposed another cut.

New York Times 7/30/25
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday for a fifth meeting in a row, despite officials splintering over the right time to restart cuts after an extended pause.
In standing pat, the central bank kept interest rates at a range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent, a level reached in December after a series of reductions at the end of last year. Two members of the powerful Board of Governors dissenting. Christopher J. Waller, a governor, and Michelle W. Bowman, vice chair for supervision — both of whom were appointed by President Trump — supported the Fed lowering interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point.
Here’s what to know about the decision:
The decision to hold interest rates steady was widely anticipated but it also was one of the most contentious decisions in decades, with two members of the board dissenting. The last time policymakers of that stature opposed a vote on monetary policy was back in 1993.
Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell was repeatedly asked about the prospects of a September rate cut. He did not take a reduction at that time off the table but made clear that the central bank had not yet made a decision about what to do. He stressed that economic data to be released between now and the mid-September meeting would be crucial.

Bloomberg 7/29/25
China and the United States have agreed to extend their tariff truce, Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang tells reporters in Stockholm.

Bloomberg 7/23/25
The US-Japan deal “could be” a model for the EU, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick tells Bloomberg TV.
Large countries would have hard time getting a tariff lower than the 15% that Japan got, Lutnick also says
Earlier: Bessent Hails Financing Pitch in Japan Deal as EU Talks Loom

Bloomberg 7/23/25
The European Union and the US are progressing toward an agreement that would set a 15% tariff for most products, according to diplomats briefed on the negotiations.
Member states could be ready to accept a 15% tariff and EU officials are pushing to have that cover sectors including cars, the diplomats said. Steel and aluminum imports above a certain quota would face the 50% duty, one of the diplomats added.

Wall Street Journal 8/20/25
President Trump has told aides he is considering attempting to fire a Biden-appointed Federal Reserve governor after one of his housing officials accused her of mortgage fraud, according to a senior White House official and another person familiar with the matter.

Bill Pulte, the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, alleged on social media Wednesday morning that Fed governor Lisa Cook submitted what he called fraudulent information on a pair of mortgage applications.

Trump wrote in a social media post in response to Pulte’s claims that “Cook must resign, now!!!” Behind the scenes, Trump is considering going further. If she doesn’t resign, Trump is discussing trying to fire her for cause, the White House official and person familiar with the matter said.