Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, said he thinks Fed Chair Jerome Powell supports rate cuts in October and December. Duy said that the markets shouldn't read too much into the comments from regional Fed bank presidents who are wary of more rate cuts. He noted Powell and the other members of the seven-member Board of Governors in Washington set the policy direction, and the board is "stacked" with officials who want to cut rates.

Tim Duy discusses Fed independence and the plight of Lisa Cook .

Trump did little to fundamentally change the Fed's DNA during his first term, "but it feels like the Fed will not escape Trump 2.0 unscathed," said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors. "There's a feeling that Trump has an influence over every institution sooner or later, and maybe the Fed's ability to resist it has come to an end."

Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors said the U.S. central bank is determined to hold monetary policy steady until uncertainty over the impact of Trump's economic plans abates.

Sassan Ghahramani joins Bloomberg Surveillance on April 10th, 2024

“Markets and the Fed are caught between strong growth and weak inflation,” Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, wrote in an analyst note this week. “The GDP report is genuinely new and unexpected information that the Fed will read as challenging its forecast that growth will soon slow to, or below, trend.”

Tim Duy, SGH Macro Advisors, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss the upcoming CPI report, what could be ahead for the Federal Reserve, and more.

“The policy stance and underlying inflationary pressures in the eurozone” put the European Central Bank in a “dramatically different position” from the Fed, Sassan Ghahramani, the founder and chief executive of SGH Macro Advisors, wrote in a note…

Sassan Ghahramani, CEO at SGH Macro Advisors, discusses his views for the upcoming FED decision. He speaks with Kathleen Hays, Paul Allen and Vonnie Quinn on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia".

..."The Western ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian oil was perhaps the single most effective measure in taking a significant part of the Islamic Republic's clandestine oil exports off markets," Sassan Ghahramani of consultancy SGH Macro Advisers said in a note Tuesday...

...Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisers, said the market is unsure what the Fed will do in September. "The Fed is pressing forward with rate hikes, and Waller's speech should help erase speculation that the Fed will not follow through with another two 50bp hikes or skip a hike at the September meeting," said Duy...

Tim Duy, chief economist at SGH Macro Advisors, told clients Tuesday that for the May FOMC meeting "incoming inflation and jobs data will almost certainly support the [50 basis point] move, and more importantly [Fed Chairman Jerome] Powell likely supports it as well."

Moderated by Sassan Ghahramani, Founder and CEO of SGH Macro Advisors, with panelists Dr. Michael Woodford, John Bates Clark Professor of Political Economy, Columbia University, and Tim Duy, Chief US Economist for SGH Macro Advisors and author of “Tim Duy’s Fed Watch.”

Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, put it this way: “Hawkishness is the new dovishness.” To be clear, the Fed’s stance will almost certainly remain highly accommodative by historical standards. Real yields aren’t anywhere near turning positive. In the past, the central bank might be inclined to slam the brakes on the economy to stamp out the sharpest price growth in four decades. The Powell Fed absolutely won’t do that. But it does seem to have the tacit approval of the White House to get a tad more aggressive on inflation.

The Fed needs to be a bit more aggressive with removing accommodation than they have been,” said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, who expects officials to revise their median forecast to two rate hikes next year to rein in inflation levels, from a split at their last meeting on if they even needed one...

...Given all these crosscurrents, it seems like it might make sense for the central bank to keep its options open. One longtime Fed watcher I spoke with said that was what Powell was doing last week by making his hawkish comments about inflation and accelerating the taper. “By tapering early, the Fed can actually increase its optionality going into 2022,” Tim Duy, the chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, said. “They could decide to raise interest rates as early as March, or, depending on the incoming data, they could continue to push out until the fall.” Duy also said that he suspects, with core inflation running at more than four per cent and the jobless rate at 4.2 per cent, many people at the Fed believe that the necessary conditions for a rate hike have already been met...

“What is going on here is that Powell is looking at the level of inflation and looking at how fast the economy is growing and is starting to get worried that the Fed has been too easy for too long,” said Tim Duy, an economist at SGH Macro Advisors and the University of Oregon. “They are shifting the narrative.”

...That kind of framing seems misguided at best. Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, put it this way: “It’s not a choice between a recession or zero rates forever.” Indeed, it’s time for the Fed to start contemplating how to tread a middle ground if officials continue to be wrong about inflation...

...Tim Duy of SGH Macro Advisors said in a note that there was a danger of a “possible leadership vacuum at the Fed” if the Biden administration did not make decisions quickly, both on Powell’s fate and other vacancies at the top of the central bank. Randal Quarles’ tenure as Fed vice-chair for supervision, which is responsible for banking regulation, expired this month without a replacement and no one has been tapped for the job. Meanwhile, the Fed is gearing up to start shrinking the pace of its asset purchases to slow the support for the economy as high inflation persists. Next year the Fed will be debating when and how to actually start raising interest rates. “The lack of White House attention to the Fed creates potentially enormous policy uncertainty,” Duy said...

...Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisors, said comments from the Fed are moving in an overall hawkish direction. He said it will be important to see if Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pushes back on such talk at his upcoming speech on Friday.