Dow Jones — OTTAWA 6/10/26

The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged Wednesday at 2.25%, with Gov. Tiff Macklem saying this marked the best approach to addressing the dual-sided risks of a weak economy and higher energy prices.

“We think we got the rate where we think it needs to be right now,” Macklem said at a press conference following the central bank’s fifth straight decision to hold rates steady.

The central bank expects inflation to be around 3% in the next coming months, or at the high end of its 1%-to-3% target range, due to elevated crude-oil prices. To date, Macklem said there’s little evidence of higher energy costs broadening to lift prices for other good and services. The central bank sets interest-rate policy to achieve and maintain 2% inflation.

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) 6/11/26

The European Central Bank on Thursday became the first major central bank to raise interest rates in response to the Iran war as policymakers around the world including new U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh wrestle with how to confront the inflation fed by sharply higher oil prices.

The ECB’s rate-setting council raised its benchmark rate to 2.25% from 2%, where it had been for a year. The move comes ahead of rate-setting meetings next week at the Fed, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England.

Bloomberg 6/5/26

Treasuries tumbled after US job growth topped all forecasts in May, driving traders to fully price in a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike by the end of this year.

Traders fully priced in a quarter-point rate hike by the Fed by December, and saw a roughly 60% chance of one as soon as October. Before the data, they’d expected policymakers’ next move to be a hike in March. The central bank’s key rate has been a range of 3.5% to 3.75% since December.

Barron’s 5/20/26

A majority of Federal Reserve officials said at their April meeting that some policy tightening will likely be appropriate if inflation continues to run above their 2% target, according to minutes from their meeting, released Wednesday afternoon.

The notes from last month’s meeting offer the fullest account yet of how officials are weighing an inflation problem that has grown harder to dismiss, as price growth has remained above the central bank’s goal for five years.

Since the meeting, markets have priced in a growing chance of at least one interest-rate hike by year’s end, a significant shift from earlier this year.

Bloomberg 5/22/26

Bond traders are fully pricing in an interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year, a sign of conviction in the market that incoming Chair Kevin Warsh will need to move quickly to combat inflation.

Traders boosted their bets for higher rates on Friday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he supports making clear the central bank’s next interest-rate move is just as likely to be an increase as a cut. Interest-rate swaps imply that the market sees the Fed’s benchmark rate at least 25 basis points higher by the end of 2026.

Bloomberg 5/15/26

China believes the Strait of Hormuz should be reopened as soon as possible, and believes that the fundamental solution to issues concerning the strait lies in the realization of a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire, Xinhua reports, citing Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. 

• Wang made the remarks when briefing the press about the just-concluded Xi-Trump meeting in Beijing
• China encourages the US and Iran to continue resolving their differences and disputes, including those related to the nuclear issue, through negotiations
• China has been working hard to promote peace talks and will continue to play its role in pushing for an early end to the war and restoring peace in the Middle East, Wang says

Dow Jones 5/22/26

Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve governor who favored a rate cut as recently as January, said Friday that growing inflation risks mean the Fed should no longer be defaulting to plans for further rate cuts at all.

In a lecture delivered in Frankfurt, Waller said that as the conflict in the Middle East stretches on, higher costs for oil and other commodities are increasingly likely to ripple through the economy in a broader wave of sustained inflation. As a result, he said, it is time for the Fed to stop signaling that another rate cut is its most likely next move.

For the foreseeable future, holding rates steady in the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% will likely be the right course, Waller said. “I can no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon,” he added.

Dow Jones – TOKYO 5/12/2026

The U.S. and Japan have reaffirmed their commitment to
working closely together to monitor the currency market, Japan’s finance
minister said after meeting with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

“We discussed financial market movements, including foreign exchange rates, in
light of the situation in the Middle East. Regarding recent currency moves, we
confirmed that Japan and the U.S. have been able to coordinate very well,”
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said at a news conference.

Bloomberg 5/12/2026

The Bank of Japan signaled the possibility
of a hike to its benchmark rate next month with a summary of
views from last month’s board meeting that conveyed concerns
over upside inflation risks stemming from the conflict in the
Middle East.
“It is quite possible that the bank will raise the policy
interest rate from the next monetary policy meeting onward, even
if the future course of the situation in the Middle East remains
unclear,” one board member said, according to a summary of
opinions from the April meeting released Tuesday.

Bloomberg 5/7/26

President Trump says he is giving the EU until July 4 to “deliver their side of the Deal and, as per Agreement, cut their Tariffs to ZERO” otherwise US “tariffs would immediately jump to much higher levels.”

New York Times 6/11/26

The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time since 2023. It expects inflation to run hotter than previously thought, and downgraded its forecast for economic growth.

The European Central Bank raised interest rates on Thursday, becoming the first major central bank to act to rein in rising inflation set off by the war in the Middle East.

Bloomberg 6/11/26

The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in almost three years, concluding it can no longer wait out the Iran war as inflation pressures intensify.

The deposit rate was lifted to 2.25% from 2%, as anticipated by economists and investors who foresee another quarter-point move in September. The ECB was cautious, however, reiterating that it won’t pre-commit to future action.

Wall Street Journal — WASHINGTON — 4/29/26

Federal Reserve officials extended an interest-rate pause on Wednesday that revealed bigger divisions over whether to hint that further interest rate cuts are possible, marking a contentious conclusion to Jerome Powell’s eight-year chairmanship.

Officials held their benchmark federal-funds rate steady in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% and, in their policy statement, made no changes to language adopted last fall that signaled the next move in rates was more likely to be down than up.

Wall Street Journal 4/29/26

Wall Street traders are betting that there is a small chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year, after central bank officials sent some hawkish signals on Wednesday.

Interest-rate futures showed Wednesday afternoon that traders see a 11% chance that the Fed will raise rates this year, according to CME Group data, up from 5% earlier in the day and zero percent on Tuesday. The chance of a rate cut was hovering around 2%.

The Fed on Wednesday maintained language in its policy statement suggesting that an interest-rate cut is more likely than a rate hike in the months ahead. However, three Fed presidents formally objected to that language, and Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated that it could be removed as soon as the next meeting, as inflation remains stubbornly high.

New York Times 4/29/26

Jerome H. Powell cited lingering legal threats against him and the Federal Reserve in explaining his decision to remain at the central bank.

Jerome H. Powell said on Wednesday that he would stay on as a governor at the Federal Reserve after his term as chair ends May 15,citing lingering legal threats against him and the central bank as part of a pressure campaign by President Trump for lower borrowing costs.

“After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined,” Mr. Powell said at a news conference on Wednesday.

Mr. Powell pointed to the legal attacks on the Fed as the reason for his decision.

Bloomberg 4/30/26

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, with officials signaling they need more time to assess the extent of the Iran war’s jolt to the economy.

The deposit rate was left at 2%, where it’s been since June 2025 and in line with the predictions of all analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The ECB offered no guidance on future decisions, reiterating it will act one meeting at a time based on information as it arrives.

“The upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified,” the Governing Council said on Thursday in a statement. “The Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the current uncertainty.”

Bloomberg 4/30/26

European Central Bank policymakers are likely to raise interest rates at their next meeting in June unless there are positive developments on energy prices and ending the Iran war, according to people familiar with the situation.

Should the fighting persist, there’s only a very small chance a hike can be avoided, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing private talks. They stressed, however, that nothing has been decided and the situation can change quickly.

Truth Social April 21, 2026
@realDonaldTrump
STATEMENT OF PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP:
Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously
fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field
Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of
Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country
of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can
come up with a unified proposal. I have therefore directed our
Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects,
remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire
until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions
are concluded, one way or the other. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Wall Street Journal 4/29/26

Fed Chair Jerome Powell tells reporters that given the high uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, the central bank is well positioned to wait when it comes to monetary policy. “We think our policy rate is in a good place,” said Powell. “Nobody’s calling for a hike right now-it’s really going to depend on how things evolve.”

“The labor market is probably cooling off a little bit,” he noted.

Bloomberg 5/5/26

Australia’s central bank raised its key
interest rate for a third consecutive meeting, with Governor
Michele Bullock signaling policymakers would now pause to assess
next steps..
The rate hikes give the RBA scope to determine its next
move, with policymakers watching if inflation expectations will
stay anchored, Bullock told reporters.

Bloomberg 4/9/26

President Trump called Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday and asked him to scale back Israel’s strikes in Lebanon to ensure the success of the Iran negotiations,NBC reports, citing an unidentified senior administration official.

• Israel agreed “to be a helpful partner,” the official tells NBC

@BarakRavid

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: In light of Lebanon’s repeated requests to open direct negotiations with Israel, I instructed yesterday to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible

Dow Jones – OTTAWA 4/29/26

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday kept its main interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, and signaled the rate may stay close to that level so long as the economy evolves as forecast.

The central bank’s quarterly forecast expects that inflation peaks in April at around 3% and assumes crude-oil prices fall to $75 a barrel by mid-2027. The forecast also anticipates no changes in U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods — so neither a breakthrough on U.S.-Canada trade talks nor an escalation in U.S. levies.

Overall, the Bank of Canada largely kept its growth forecast intact, noting the economy stands to benefit from current geopolitical volatility as a net exporter of crude oil. The economy resumed growth in early 2026 after a contraction in fourth quarter, the central bank said.

Bloomberg 4/8/26

A Chinese diplomat said Beijing had made its
“own efforts” in pushing for a ceasefire between the US and
Iran, shortly after Donald Trump credited China with playing a
pivotal role in that deal.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning on Wednesday
listed the efforts her country had made in recent weeks to
deescalate the conflict at a regular briefing in Beijing,
without directly addressing reports China helped convince Tehran
to reach the truce.
“China has consistently advocated for a ceasefire and to
resolve the conflict through political and diplomatic means, and
to achieve long-term stability in the Gulf and Middle East
region,” she said, when asked about the detente. “China made its
own efforts in this regard.”