Bloomberg 2/3/26
Australia’s central bank raised its key interest rate Tuesday after judging inflation pressures were persistent enough to warrant renewed restraint but not strong enough to signal further hikes are possible.
While it warned in its statement that “inflation is likely to remain above target for some time,” Governor Michele Bullock in a briefing avoided any hints that further tightening was possible.
“I don’t know if it’s in a cycle, certainly it’s an adjustment,” she said when asked if the bank was in a new tightening phase. “We are in a position where we think we might be around neutral.” “It’s not clear one way or the other,” she said.

Bloomberg 2/5/26
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged as officials assess the economic toll of a rally in the euro and renewed trade unpredictability.
The deposit rate was left at 2% on Thursday — as predicted by all economists in a Bloomberg survey. The ECB didn’t offer guidance on future steps, reiterating that incoming data will steer decision-making.
“The economy remains resilient in a challenging global environment,” it said in a statement. “At the same time, the outlook is still uncertain, owing particularly to ongoing global trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.”

Dow Jones OTTAWA 1/28/26
The Bank of Canada on Wednesday kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% in a second-consecutive decision, and warned the level of uncertainty stemming from U.S. trade policy and geopolitical risks has ramped up.
The consensus among senior officials “was that elevated uncertainty makes it difficult to predict the timing or direction of the next change in the policy rate,” Gov. Tiff Macklem said. Prior to Wednesday, most economists surveyed by the Journal predicted the central bank would hold the policy rate steady through 2026.
Macklem said U.S. trade policy continued to disrupt the domestic economy. Central-bank officials project that economic growth stalled in the fourth quarter, after a surprise jump in the previous quarter buoyed by net trade.

Bloomberg 1/28/26
Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged and pointed to improvements in the US economy as they signaled a more cautious approach to potential future adjustments.
In a post-meeting statement, policymakers said “job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization.” Officials also dropped language pointing to increased downside risks to employment that had appeared in the three previous statements.

Wall Street Journal 1/28/26
Two Fed governors — both appointed by President Trump — dissented against the decision and favored a quarter-point rate cut. The Fed’s 12-person rate-setting committee includes seven presidentially-appointed governors and five regional bank presidents who aren’t political appointees.
Powell’s term as chair ends in May, and Trump’s advisers have said he is close to naming a successor. Governor Christopher Waller, one of four finalists, opposed Wednesday’s decision. Analysts had said casting a dissenting vote may have been a precondition for keeping his long-shot candidacy viable.
Governor Stephen Miran also dissented. Since Trump named him to fill a short-term vacancy on the Fed’s board last summer, he has dissented at all four policy meetings he has attended in favor of lower rates.

Bloomberg. 2/5/26
The Bank of England came within a vote of cutting interest rates and predicted inflation will fall below its target, a closer-than-expected decision that revived hopes of a move next month.
Governor Andrew Bailey was once again the swing voter in a 5-4 decision to leave rates unchanged at 3.75%, choosing to hold policy having cut at the last meeting in December. Bailey said in a statement that “there should be scope for some further reduction in bank rate this year.”
In updated forecasts, the BOE predicted inflation will be at its 2% target in April and warned of slowing growth and rising unemployment.
The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision was far more dovish than anticipated, with the close call not reflected in market pricing before the meeting for a near-zero chance of a reduction. Earlier Thursday, the pound dipped and gilt yields rose as speculation mounted over the future of Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
The pound extended losses, falling as much as 0.8% to $1.3550, and traders ramped up bets on rate cuts to price more than a 50% chance of a quarter-point move in March. They expect 45 basis points of reductions in total by year-end.

Bloomberg 1/23/26

* The central bank raised its GDP growth forecasts for fiscal
2025 and 2026, which start in April, reflecting easing global
uncertainty and support from the stimulus package under Prime
Minister Sanae Takaichi.

*On long-term yields, Ueda noted that supply-demand
conditions in the ultra-long segment have become unstable due to
fiscal year-end factors. He stressed close communication with
the government and reiterated that the BOJ would conduct stable
and nimble operations in exceptional circumstances to reassure
markets.

Wall Street Journal — WASHINGTON 1/28/26
The Federal Reserve entered a new holding pattern on interest rates Wednesday and signaled little urgency to resume cuts after contentious reductions at officials’ three previous meetings.
The decision to hold the benchmark federal-funds rate steady in a range between 3.5% and 3.75% was approved on a 10-2 vote.
Officials made fairly modest changes to the post-meeting statement explaining their decision, retaining language that typically has signaled openness to further moves without suggesting any hurry to make them.
“We’re not trying to articulate a test for when to next cut or whether to cut at the next meeting,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference. “What we’re saying is we’re well positioned as we make decisions, meeting by meeting.”

Bloomberg 1/23/26
While Ueda had suggested that overall inflation will weaken
below 2% soon, he also left open the possibility of an early
rate hike.
“April is a month where there’s relatively high numbers of
price revisions,” Ueda said. “We have a certain amount of
interest in that, and while it’s not the most important factor
in deciding the next rate hike, it’s one of the factors.”

Bloomberg 1/24/26
Speculation mounted into the weekend that
Japanese authorities could be preparing to enter currency
markets in a bid to halt the yen’s slide, possibly with the rare
assistance of the US.
The yen rallied as much as 1.75% to 155.63 per dollar on
Friday, extending the gains seen during the Asian trading day to
its strongest level of the year. The move was the biggest one-
day surge since August and reversed what had been a slide toward
levels last seen in 2024, when Japan stepped in to buy its
currency.
The jump in the US session came as traders reported that
the Federal Reserve Bank of New York had contacted financial
institutions to ask about the yen’s exchange rate. Wall Street
saw those inquiries as a potentially laying the ground for Japan
to intervene to prop up the yen, perhaps even with the US
government joining in.

Washington Post 1/28/26
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged Wednesday, hitting the pause button at its first meeting this year despite pressure from President Donald Trump to slash rates further.
With job growth still decelerating but the economy showing few signs of distress, policymakers now say they can afford to be patient as they watch whether inflation continues to cool.

AFP 2/5/26
The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged Thursday for a fifth time in a row, saying it expected inflation to stabilise at its two-percent target “in the medium term”.

Politico US 1/6/26
U.S. officials also expect Rodriguez — the former vice president now running
Venezuela — to eventually facilitate free elections and step aside, the two
people said. But the deadlines for the demands are fluid, and U.S. officials
stress there are no elections imminent.

Bloomberg 1/8/26
The US will not cut off China from accessing Venezuelan oil, Energy Secretary Chris Wright says on Fox News.
“We’re not going to cut off China — the illicit trade in oil with Iran and Russia, the illegal gun-running stuff, that’s going to be cut off and stopped,” Wright says
“China is a giant commercial economy, and no, China is going to continue to buy Venezuelan oil,” he adds when asked if US would cut off Venezuelan oil shipments to China

Axios 1/28/26
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, noting “solid” growth and a stabilizing job market, as the central bank navigates a delicate economic and political moment.
The big picture: The central bank’s policy committee took a breather after three consecutive rate cuts in the final meetings of last year, showing greater confidence in the economy. But they gave no hints as to when they may adjust borrowing costs again.

Bloomberg 1/23/26
Economists now expect the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates until June, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey.
Just last month, economists had forecast the first rate cut of the year to come in March. But with inflationary pressures lingering and signs of stabilization in the labor market, the timeline has moved further out. Policymakers’ preferred inflation metric is projected to stay above their 2% target through at least the middle of next year.
After lowering borrowing costs three straight times to close out 2025, Fed officials are widely expected to hold rates steady next week. Economists in the survey predict the second and final reduction of the year will come in September, unchanged from last month’s survey.
Investors have similarly pushed back expectations of when the Fed will resume cutting rates. The first reduction is now not seen as probable until at least June, according to federal funds futures contracts, compared to a month ago when a reduction in April was seen as more likely than not.

Bloomberg 12/19/25
The yen weakened against the dollar after the Bank of Japan offered no clear guidance on the timing of future monetary tightening, analysts said. The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level since 1995 as expected.

Bloomberg 12/18/25
Although the Bank of England cut rates, the vote pattern and the tone of its statement give it a hawkish slant.

The BOE cut rates by just a 5-4 margin, indicating that some of the hawks on the committee are still not convinced that inflationary pressures are waning sufficiently.

The BOE’s guidance is also more cautious, with the central bank saying that the extent of further easing will depend on the evolution of the inflation outlook and that “judgements around further easing will become a closer call.”

Dow Jones 1/28/26
Bank of Canada keeps its main interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, as widely expected. The theme of the first policy decision of 2026 is uncertainty. Gov. Tiff Macklem refers to uncertainty 7 times in prepared remarks for a press conference. “Uncertainty around this outlook is unusually high,” says Macklem. In the official decision, BOC revises its final paragraph, to explain that while the benchmark rate is at an appropriate level, “uncertainty is heightened and we are monitoring risks closely.” In the December decision, BOC referred to uncertainty as “elevated.” (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

Wall Street Journal 12/10/25
Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates at their third consecutive meeting but signaled little appetite for more amid unusual internal divisions over whether inflation or the job market should be their bigger worry.
The Fed voted 9-3 for the reduction on Wednesday, the first time in six years that three officials cast dissents. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid thought the reduction wasn’t warranted, while Fed governor Stephen Miran favored a larger, half-point cut.
The decision to reduce the benchmark federal-funds rate by a quarter point — to between 3.5% and 3.75%, a three-year low — is aimed at protecting against a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in hiring.
With progress on inflation stalled, officials had indicated in the run-up to this week’s decision that further reductions could require evidence of labor-market deterioration.
On Wednesday, their painstakingly calibrated post-meeting statement signaled a higher bar to additional cuts — echoing a similar pivot to the sidelines after cutting rates one year ago — by saying that the “extent and timing” of those moves would depend on changes in the economic outlook.

Bloomberg 12/10/25
Median assessment of appropriate federal funds rate at the end of each calendar year and over the longer run:
2025: 3.625% (range 3.375% to 3.875%); prior 3.625%
2026: 3.375% (range 2.125% to 3.875%); prior 3.375%
2027: 3.125% (range 2.375% to 3.875%); prior 3.125%
2028: 3.125% (range 2.625% to 3.875%); prior 3.125%
Longer Run: 3.000% (range 2.625% to 3.875%); prior 3.000%

“Federal Reserve cuts key rate but signals higher bar for future reductions”
WASHINGTON (AP) – 12/10/25
The Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate for the third time in a row Wednesday but signaled that it may leave rates unchanged in the coming months, a move that could attract ire from President Donald Trump, who has demanded steep reductions to borrowing costs.
In a statement released after a two-day meeting, the Fed’s rate-setting committee signaled that it may keep its rate unchanged in the coming months. And in a set of quarterly economic projections, Fed officials signaled they expect to lower rates just once next year.

New York Times 12/10/25
The central bank’s decision to lower interest rates for a third straight meeting was highly contentious, reflecting an internal divide that will likely limit how much borrowing costs will fall next year.
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday in what was a highly contentious decision, suggesting officials may be reluctant to lower borrowing costs much further unless the labor market weakens sharply.
The decision to cut for a third meeting in a row shifted interest rates to a new range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent. It marked the fourth straight vote that was not backed by all members of the 12-person Federal Open Market Committee, underscoring how fractured the central bank has become as it grapples with the risk of both rising unemployment and sticky inflation.

Dow Jones, Ottawa 12/10/25
The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady on Wednesday and said officials were sticking with their outlook for moderate growth even though recent economic data point to signs of upward momentum.
The central bank left its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, adding that policymakers believe it sits at an appropriate level to keep total inflation close to 2% while offering some stimulus for an economy squeezed by U.S. tariffs.
The decision likely marks the start of a prolonged pause in Canadian rate policy, following aggressive steps over a roughly 16-month period to roll back interest-rate hikes meant to contain historically-high inflation.

Bloomberg 12/9/25
Australia’s central bank Governor Michele
Bullock called an end to a truncated easing cycle as
policymakers gauge whether a pickup in inflation requires an
extended interest-rate pause or a switch to tightening.
Bond yields spiked to a 13-month high after the governor on
Tuesday said that price risks have “tilted to the upside”
following the Reserve Bank board’s widely-expected decision to
hold the cash rate at 3.6%.
“I don’t think there are interest rate cuts on the horizon
for the foreseeable future,” Bullock told reporters. “The
question is, is it just an extended hold from here or is it the
possibility of a rate rise. I couldn’t put a probability on
those but I think they’re the two things that the board will be
looking closely at coming into the new year.”

Dow Jones TOKYO 12/19/25
The Bank of Japan lifted interest rates to a level not seen in three decades, tightening policy settings again after an almost yearlong pause.
The central bank on Friday raised its overnight call rate target to 0.75% from 0.5%, reflecting policymakers’ growing confidence that wage growth and inflation are moving in sync. The hike, the BOJ’s first since January, puts borrowing costs at their highest level since 1995.