Dow Jones 9/17/25
Fed governor Stephen Miran has been on the job barely over 24 hours, yet he is starting his tenure with a splash. Miran is the lone dissenter against the Fed's quarter-point rate cut in September, voting instead in favor of a larger 50-basis-point cut. Analysts had speculated that Trump-appointed governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller were other possible dissenters in favor of a larger cut, but both chose to back the majority's quarter-point move. And despite voicing skepticism of cuts in recent months, hawkish Kansas City Fed president Jeffrey Schmid also raised his hand in favor of the quarter-point rate reduction. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

Bloomberg 9/11/25
German bonds are paring losses across the curve after the European Central Bank retained key language from its guidance but raised its inflation forecast for this year and the next in what is a carefully balanced report.

Here’s the relevant part from its statement:
“It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance...The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.”

That is virtually a repeat of what it had said in July. The message, clearly, is that the governing council is reluctant to surrender the optionality of cutting rates further should the euro-zone economy weaken.

Bloomberg 9/5/25
US Treasuries rallied as a weaker-than-expected jobs report prompted traders to fully price an interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.
Yields on two-year notes, which are most sensitive to changes in monetary policy, fell as much as 8 basis points to 3.5%,
Interest-rate swaps showed traders priced in a 98% probability of a quarter-point cut by the Fed at the Sept. 17 meeting. A total of 142 basis points of easing were expected over the next 12 months.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 22,000 in August after a combined 21,000 downward revision to the prior months, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report out Friday. The jobless rate ticked up to 4.3%, the highest level since late 2021.

Bloomberg 8/29/25
China’s central bank is nudging the yuan
higher, stoking speculation of a subtle shift in strategy toward
favoring a stronger exchange rate after strong exports
brightened the nation’s growth outlook.
The People’s Bank of China raised its daily reference rate
for the yuan by the most in nearly a year this week even as the
dollar was largely unchanged. This may signal authorities are
not only comfortable with a stronger currency but looking to
engineer a gradual appreciation, according to some market
watchers.

Bloomberg 9/5/25
The Canadian economy surprisingly shed jobs for a second consecutive month as the unemployment rate jumped, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada this month.
Employment fell by 65,500 positions in August, driven by decreases in part-time work. The jobless rate rose to 7.1%, Statistics Canada data showed Friday. The number of job losses surpassed even the most pessimistic projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists — the median forecast was for 5,000 jobs to be created.
Losses were led by self-employment and service-related industries — transportation, professional services and education sectors all shed jobs. Employment fell by more than 19,000 positions in the manufacturing sector.
The yield on benchmark two-year Canada government bonds fell about 6 basis points to 2.554%, while the loonie fluctuated to trade at C$1.38 per US dollar as of 8:40 a.m. in Ottawa. Traders boosted bets that the Bank of Canada would lower rates at its next meeting Sept. 17, pricing in about an 80% chance of a cut.

Dow Jones - Ottawa 9/17/25
The Bank of Canada cut on Wednesday its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point to 2.5%, citing a weaker job market and waning momentum in underlying inflation.
This marks a resumption of rate cuts for Canada's central bank, after a six-month pause as officials worried about upward pressure on inflation from tariffs. Gov. Tiff Macklem said data suggest that upward momentum in core inflation -- which strips out volatile items like food and energy -- has "dissipated," and Canada's decision to abandon most retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products "will mean less pressure on the prices of these goods going forward."

Bloomberg 8/14/25
Treasury futures on lows of the day after July PPI data prints well above estimate across both headline and core readings.
US yields flip to cheaper on the day by around 3bp across front-end of the curve while in long-end yields rise back to unchanged on the day
Fed-dated OIS sees rate cut premium fade over coming months with 22bp of cuts priced for the September meeting vs. 25bp priced Wednesday close and a combined 58bp of cuts for the year vs. 63bp prior

Bloomberg 8/12/25
Australia’s central bank chief signaled a
“couple more” interest-rate cuts will be required to achieve its
latest forecasts after the policy board eased as anticipated on
Tuesday.
The Reserve Bank cut its key rate to 3.6% in a unanimous
decision and has now delivered 75 basis points of easing in the
current campaign.

New York Times 8/1/25
The Federal Reserve held rates steady in July but two governors dissented, saying they had concerns about labor market fragility.
The strength of the labor market has been one of the main reasons that Federal Reserve policymakers have felt comfortable waiting to cut interest rates in recent months.
The surprisingly weak jobs report on Friday is likely to change that equation.
Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, described the labor market as “solid” as recently as Wednesday, pointing to the low unemployment rate and solid job gains to justify the central bank’s decision to hold interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting.
But the data on Friday called that assessment into question. The unemployment rate ticked up only slightly, to 4.2 percent. But large downward revisions to job growth in May and June suggested that the labor market has not been as strong in recent months as policymakers believed.

Bloomberg 8/7/25
The Bank of England cut interest rates to
the lowest in over two years in a closer-than-expected decision
that pitted the prospect of inflation hitting 4% against a
weakening jobs market.
Five members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for the
quarter-point reduction to 4%, while four backed no change. That
followed an earlier three-way split that failed to reach a
majority. It was the first time in the 28-year history of the
panel that two rounds of voting were needed to reach a
presentable outcome on rates.
Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli, Chief Economist Huw Pill
along with externals Catherine Mann and Megan Greene were those
who opposed another cut.

New York Times 7/30/25
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday for a fifth meeting in a row, despite officials splintering over the right time to restart cuts after an extended pause.
In standing pat, the central bank kept interest rates at a range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent, a level reached in December after a series of reductions at the end of last year. Two members of the powerful Board of Governors dissenting. Christopher J. Waller, a governor, and Michelle W. Bowman, vice chair for supervision — both of whom were appointed by President Trump — supported the Fed lowering interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point.
Here’s what to know about the decision:
The decision to hold interest rates steady was widely anticipated but it also was one of the most contentious decisions in decades, with two members of the board dissenting. The last time policymakers of that stature opposed a vote on monetary policy was back in 1993.
Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell was repeatedly asked about the prospects of a September rate cut. He did not take a reduction at that time off the table but made clear that the central bank had not yet made a decision about what to do. He stressed that economic data to be released between now and the mid-September meeting would be crucial.

TOKYO Reuters 7/31/25
The Bank of Japan revised up its inflation forecasts on Thursday and offered a less gloomy outlook on the economy than three months ago, keeping alive the possibility of a resumption in interest rate hikes this year.

The central bank also cited persistent rises in food costs as a potential driver of public perceptions around inflation and underlying price pressures.

Bloomberg 7/29/25
China and the United States have agreed to extend their tariff truce, Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang tells reporters in Stockholm.

Bloomberg 7/23/25
The US-Japan deal “could be” a model for the EU, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick tells Bloomberg TV.
Large countries would have hard time getting a tariff lower than the 15% that Japan got, Lutnick also says
Earlier: Bessent Hails Financing Pitch in Japan Deal as EU Talks Loom

Bloomberg 7/23/25
The European Union and the US are progressing toward an agreement that would set a 15% tariff for most products, according to diplomats briefed on the negotiations.
Member states could be ready to accept a 15% tariff and EU officials are pushing to have that cover sectors including cars, the diplomats said. Steel and aluminum imports above a certain quota would face the 50% duty, one of the diplomats added.

Wall Street Journal 8/20/25
President Trump has told aides he is considering attempting to fire a Biden-appointed Federal Reserve governor after one of his housing officials accused her of mortgage fraud, according to a senior White House official and another person familiar with the matter.

Bill Pulte, the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, alleged on social media Wednesday morning that Fed governor Lisa Cook submitted what he called fraudulent information on a pair of mortgage applications.

Trump wrote in a social media post in response to Pulte's claims that "Cook must resign, now!!!" Behind the scenes, Trump is considering going further. If she doesn't resign, Trump is discussing trying to fire her for cause, the White House official and person familiar with the matter said.

Bloomberg 7/23/25
Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi
Uchida indicated that the trade deal between Tokyo and
Washington will nudge the central bank closer to a rate hike by
boosting the prospects for suitable economic conditions.
“Uncertainty has receded, and this of course means that the
likelihood has risen” for economic forecasts to be met, Uchida
said Wednesday at a press conference in Kochi, southwestern
Japan. “But, uncertainty remains,” as other nations are still
engaged in trade negotiations, and the actual impacts from
tariffs remain to be monitored.
Uchida spoke hours after US President Donald Trump
announced a trade deal with Japan that featured lower tariff
rates than those that had previously been imposed or flagged as
coming. Stocks and bond yields soared.
“This agreement is a big major breakthrough,” Uchida said.
“Uncertainty stemming from tariffs will be lowered for Japan’s
economy.” The bank has for months indicated that lack of clarity
on the trade front represented a major hurdle for considering a
rate hike.
By referencing lingering uncertainty for the economy,
Uchida suggested there’s little immediate need to hike. Still,
his comments are likely to bolster views among BOJ watchers that
another rate hike is coming by year-end.
Traders were quick to factor in another rate hike by the
end of this year in the wake of the trade news, with overnight
index swaps indicating more than an 80% chance of a move.

South China Morning Post 7/21/25
This Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea is probably the best ­opportunity for Xi Jinping and Donald Trump to meet in person this year, multiple sources have said.
They said Trump might visit China before going to the Apec summit between October 30 and November 1, or he could meet his Chinese counterpart on the ­sidelines of the Apec event.

Bloomberg 7/30/25
The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged, citing uncertainty posed by US tariffs, but kept the door open to more cuts if the economy weakens and inflation pressures stay in check.
Policymakers led by Governor Tiff Macklem held the benchmark rate at 2.75% on Wednesday. The pause was expected by markets and economists in a Bloomberg survey, and marks the third consecutive meeting that officials have left borrowing costs unchanged.
The bank’s assessment of the economy struck a more dovish tone. Macklem’s opening statement suggests officials aren’t convinced that the recent run-up in core inflation pressures will persist — even though they’re not sure yet how higher tariffs will filter through to consumer prices.
Bonds rallied, pushing the two-year Canada yield to 2.754% as of 10:35 a.m. in Ottawa, down about 4 basis points from its level before the rate decision was released. The Canadian dollar initially dropped, then bounced back.

Bloomberg 6/26/25
A flurry of Federal Reserve officials this week made clear they’ll need a few more months to gain confidence that tariff-driven price hikes won’t raise inflation in a persistent way.
Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman captured attention in the past week when they signaled they’d be open to lowering rates as soon as the Fed’s July 29-30 meeting if inflation remains contained.
Since then, however, nearly a dozen policymakers — including Chair Jerome Powell, New York Fed President John Williams and San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly — have dumped cold water on that idea.

Bloomberg 6/23/25
Iran fired missiles at a US air base in Qatar in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s weekend airstrikes on three of its nuclear facilities.
Qatar said the barrage at Al Udeid base, the biggest such US facility in the Middle East, was intercepted and that there were no casualties. Al Udeid is the regional headquarters for US Central Command, which oversees the American military in the Middle East. There are about 9,000 US service members in gas-rich Qatar, which sits just across the Persian Gulf from Iran.
Oil prices fell immediately after the attack, with Brent dropping 3.3% to $74.48 a barrel as of 6:10 p.m.

@farnazfassihi
Journalist
@nytimes
United Nations Bureau Chief Iran Mideast Diplomacy | Author | War correspondent
Three Iranian officials familiar with the plans said that Iran gave advanced notice to Qatari officials that attacks were coming, as a way to minimize casualties. The officials said Iran symbolically needed to strike back at the U.S. but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp; they described it as a similar strategy to 2020 when Iran gave Iraq heads up before firing ballistic missiles an American base in Iraq following the
assassination of its top general.

Bloomberg 6/22/25
US President Donald Trump said American
bombers struck Iran’s three main nuclear sites, pulling the US
directly into the country’s conflict despite his longtime
promises to avoid new wars.
Trump said a “payload of BOMBS” was dropped on Fordow, the
uranium-enrichment site buried deep under a mountain and seen as
vulnerable only to “bunker buster” munitions that the US
possesses. Natanz and Isfahan, two other sites, were also
struck.