Bloomberg 7/13/26

Money market pricing on Monday suggests traders boosted their wagers for a July quarter-point rate increase after a spate of fresh US strikes on Iran. The pricing reflected a 50% possibility of a hike, from less than 40% earlier in the session, as Fed Governor Christopher Waller said policymakers may need to raise rates if underlying inflation continues to signal broad price pressures.

Wall Street Journal 7/13/26

Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said Monday an interest-rate hike should be on the table if this week’s inflation data show price pressures remaining firm, his clearest signal yet that he could back a rate increase this summer.

Waller cited the rise in “core” inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, and, notably, said the rise predated the spike in energy prices this March from the Iran war. He said he was “determined to avoid repeating” the Fed’s 2021 mistake of responding too late to rising prices. “If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the [Fed] will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term,” he said.

Bloomberg 7/15/26

The Bank of Canada held interest rates steady for a sixth consecutive meeting as policymakers see the economy rebounding and oil price-driven inflation fading.

Officials led by Governor Tiff Macklem kept the policy rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, matching expectations of economists in a Bloomberg survey and traders in overnight swap markets.

“After a year of weakness, Canada’s economy is showing signs of improvement,” the bank said in its monetary policy report. “Growth is expected to pick up, and inflation eases gradually from its recent peak. Uncertainty is still high.”

Wall Street Journal 6/17/26

Federal Reserve officials signaled Wednesday that their next move may be to raise interest rates, not cut them, a striking reversal at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chairman and a sign of how sharply the inflation outlook has turned.

The Fed held its benchmark rate steady, in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, in a unanimous vote. But officials’ quarterly economic projections told the story of the shift: Nine of 19 officials penciled in at least one rate increase by year’s end, up from none in March. Just one foresaw a cut, down from 12.

Investors had braced in recent weeks for a higher-for-longer posture from the Fed, but this was sharper and reflected a committee inching from a watchful hold toward readiness to raise rates.

Bloomberg 6/16/26

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark
interest rate to the highest since 1995 and pledged more hikes
to come, fueling speculation of another move before the end of
the year.

Bloomberg 6/18/26

The Swiss National Bank warned investors that a Middle East peace deal hasn’t altered its state of readiness to sell the franc if such a stance is required.

Policymakers led by President Martin Schlegel kept the interest rate at zero and restated their willingness to intervene in the currency. They added a proviso about doing so “if necessary,” evolving wording used repeatedly by officials since the Iran war broke out.

The decision suggests officials remain fearful of renewed pressure on the franc but are adapting to changed circumstances.

Bloomberg 6/16/26

Australia’s central bank kept open the
possibility of further policy tightening on Tuesday after
leaving its key interest rate unchanged, as Governor Michele
Bullock argued that inflation could still go either way.
The Reserve Bank’s nine-member board unanimously held the
cash rate at 4.35%, its first pause of the year, in response to
signs that a trio of hikes are beginning to weigh on the
economy.

Wall Street Journal 6/17/26

Wednesday’s interest-rate projections showed that Federal Reserve officials were a little more hawkish than many investors had anticipated.

Heading into the meeting, most investors expected that officials’ median interest-rate forecast for the end of 2026 would nudge up to at least 3.6% – the current level of rates – from the last forecast of 3.4%. In the end, however, enough officials projected a rate increase that the median forecast climbed all the way to 3.8%.

That was a blow to stocks and bonds, with major stock indexes turning negative and short-term Treasury yields climbing sharply.

This item is part of a Wall Street Journal live coverage event. The full stream can be found by searching P/WSJL (WSJ Live Coverage).

FT 6/17/26
US shoppers stepped up spending in May as bumper tax refunds offset the inflationary effects of the Iran war, signalling the economy remains in robust shape as Kevin Warsh takes the helm at the Federal Reserve. Retail sales in May rose 0.9 per cent from the previous month to $764bn, according to data released by the Census Bureau on Wednesday, ahead of Wall Street expectations. They were up 6.9 per cent versus May 2025. Much of the increased spending was driven by elevated prices at the pump, with petrol station sales rising 3.4 per cent. But underlying retail sales were also strong, with a core measure stripping out volatile items including fuel and car sales gaining 0.7 per cent.

Dow Jones — OTTAWA 6/10/26

The Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged Wednesday at 2.25%, with Gov. Tiff Macklem saying this marked the best approach to addressing the dual-sided risks of a weak economy and higher energy prices.

“We think we got the rate where we think it needs to be right now,” Macklem said at a press conference following the central bank’s fifth straight decision to hold rates steady.

The central bank expects inflation to be around 3% in the next coming months, or at the high end of its 1%-to-3% target range, due to elevated crude-oil prices. To date, Macklem said there’s little evidence of higher energy costs broadening to lift prices for other good and services. The central bank sets interest-rate policy to achieve and maintain 2% inflation.

Bloomberg 6/16/26

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark
interest rate to the highest since 1995, at a regular monetary
policy meeting convened without the governor in attendance.
The BOJ increased its benchmark rate by a quarter
percentage point to 1%, according to a statement Tuesday

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) 6/11/26

The European Central Bank on Thursday became the first major central bank to raise interest rates in response to the Iran war as policymakers around the world including new U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh wrestle with how to confront the inflation fed by sharply higher oil prices.

The ECB’s rate-setting council raised its benchmark rate to 2.25% from 2%, where it had been for a year. The move comes ahead of rate-setting meetings next week at the Fed, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England.

Bloomberg 6/5/26

Treasuries tumbled after US job growth topped all forecasts in May, driving traders to fully price in a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike by the end of this year.

Traders fully priced in a quarter-point rate hike by the Fed by December, and saw a roughly 60% chance of one as soon as October. Before the data, they’d expected policymakers’ next move to be a hike in March. The central bank’s key rate has been a range of 3.5% to 3.75% since December.

Bloomberg 6/17/26

Short-dated US Treasury yields leaped as Federal Reserve officials signaled they expect an interest-rate hike in the coming months, pushing traders to fully price in higher borrowing costs by October.

Yields on two-year Treasuries, which are particularly sensitive to near-term changes in central bank policy, rose 14 basis points to 4.19% after the decision on Wednesday, the first under Chairman Kevin Warsh. Money markets suggest a hike is now seen as likely by September, and fully priced in by October. The dollar rose.

The Fed, which left rates unchanged for the moment, released quarterly projections — colloquially known as the dot plot — that indicated nine officials foresee at least one quarter-point hike this year, with six anticipating at least two. Another nine expected no move or a cut.

Barron’s 5/20/26

A majority of Federal Reserve officials said at their April meeting that some policy tightening will likely be appropriate if inflation continues to run above their 2% target, according to minutes from their meeting, released Wednesday afternoon.

The notes from last month’s meeting offer the fullest account yet of how officials are weighing an inflation problem that has grown harder to dismiss, as price growth has remained above the central bank’s goal for five years.

Since the meeting, markets have priced in a growing chance of at least one interest-rate hike by year’s end, a significant shift from earlier this year.

Bloomberg 5/22/26

Bond traders are fully pricing in an interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year, a sign of conviction in the market that incoming Chair Kevin Warsh will need to move quickly to combat inflation.

Traders boosted their bets for higher rates on Friday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he supports making clear the central bank’s next interest-rate move is just as likely to be an increase as a cut. Interest-rate swaps imply that the market sees the Fed’s benchmark rate at least 25 basis points higher by the end of 2026.

Bloomberg 6/15/26

The US and Iran reached an interim peace agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and move further toward ending a 15-week war that’s wrought chaos across the Middle East and reverberated through the global economy.

The development caused equities and bonds to jump at the start of the week, while oil and natural gas prices — which soared with the strait’s closure — slumped.

US President Donald Trump, under pressure as rising fuel costs hit him and his Republican Party ahead of midterm elections in November, hailed a “great deal that will bring peace and security to the whole region.”

Bloomberg 5/15/26

China believes the Strait of Hormuz should be reopened as soon as possible, and believes that the fundamental solution to issues concerning the strait lies in the realization of a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire, Xinhua reports, citing Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. 

• Wang made the remarks when briefing the press about the just-concluded Xi-Trump meeting in Beijing
• China encourages the US and Iran to continue resolving their differences and disputes, including those related to the nuclear issue, through negotiations
• China has been working hard to promote peace talks and will continue to play its role in pushing for an early end to the war and restoring peace in the Middle East, Wang says

Dow Jones 5/22/26

Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve governor who favored a rate cut as recently as January, said Friday that growing inflation risks mean the Fed should no longer be defaulting to plans for further rate cuts at all.

In a lecture delivered in Frankfurt, Waller said that as the conflict in the Middle East stretches on, higher costs for oil and other commodities are increasingly likely to ripple through the economy in a broader wave of sustained inflation. As a result, he said, it is time for the Fed to stop signaling that another rate cut is its most likely next move.

For the foreseeable future, holding rates steady in the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% will likely be the right course, Waller said. “I can no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon,” he added.

Bloomberg 6/18/26

The Bank of England held interest rates at
3.75% as it said the recent fall in oil prices was
“encouraging,” even while two policymakers voted for an
immediate quarter-point hike over concerns of persistent
inflation.
The committee left its guidance unchanged and lowered its
estimate of peak inflation to 3.25% in the fourth quarter of
this year, below the 3.6% it had projected in April.

Dow Jones – TOKYO 5/12/2026

The U.S. and Japan have reaffirmed their commitment to
working closely together to monitor the currency market, Japan’s finance
minister said after meeting with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

“We discussed financial market movements, including foreign exchange rates, in
light of the situation in the Middle East. Regarding recent currency moves, we
confirmed that Japan and the U.S. have been able to coordinate very well,”
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said at a news conference.

Bloomberg 5/12/2026

The Bank of Japan signaled the possibility
of a hike to its benchmark rate next month with a summary of
views from last month’s board meeting that conveyed concerns
over upside inflation risks stemming from the conflict in the
Middle East.
“It is quite possible that the bank will raise the policy
interest rate from the next monetary policy meeting onward, even
if the future course of the situation in the Middle East remains
unclear,” one board member said, according to a summary of
opinions from the April meeting released Tuesday.

Bloomberg 5/7/26

President Trump says he is giving the EU until July 4 to “deliver their side of the Deal and, as per Agreement, cut their Tariffs to ZERO” otherwise US “tariffs would immediately jump to much higher levels.”