With a ceasefire in Syria brewing, and the Saudi king likely visiting Russia within weeks, the world’s biggest oil producers could cut output “sometime in March,” SGH Macro Advisors said late Thursday.

"In the heyday of the 1990s, a junior bank trader might hold a $1 million to $2 million position overnight, and a top trader might hold a position of up to $100 million overnight," notes Sassan Ghahramani, CEO of New York-based SGH Macro Advisors, which advises money managers. "That has disappeared. Volume is at an all-time high, but its a situation of 'pass the hot potato.' People can't hold positions... Meanwhile, hedge funds and other money managers have become the players holding currency positions for sustained periods, Ghahramani notes. "A lot of them are on the same side [of trades], and if they need to get out, banks are no longer there as a cushion. That tends to exaggerate moves."

Indeed, the folks at SGH Macro Advisors note while European Union officials want Greece to submit a memo of understanding before August 11 or at least August 13 as a condition for a European Stability Mechanism (ESM) disbursement, the memo may not come. And Greece needs money to pay the European Central Bank (ECB) on August 20.

SGH Macro Advisors’ Sassan Ghahramani and Kevin Muehring write: “The most humiliating measure of many, for Tsipras on a political level, was the 50 billion Euro escrow fund negotiated with Germany. After the all-night negotiations, he got little more than a concession that the “pledged” assets be left under Greek and not foreign (Luxembourg) jurisdiction … Despite guaranteed defections … we are told Tsipras has an estimated 100 or so Members of Parliament still that will do what he asks them to do … The Greek banking system is highly likely to be consolidated, although under an orderly scenario – meaning as part of the Eurozone and with all the support to the financial system that this inclusion earns from the ECB – we would expect that recapitalization and consolidation will be conducted gingerly, with considerable effort to limit the reforms to equity and subordinated debt and to avoid the far more controversial haircuts to deposits (i.e., those over 100,000 Euros).”

Sassan Ghahramani, CEO of New York-based SGH Macro Advisors, which advises hedge funds, said financial markets recognised that Germany's limits were being tested, adding: "And I think the markets would almost say 'let's ringfence this situation'." "The whole thing about the irreversibility of the euro and all of that -- that ship sailed a long time ago," he said. "Now it is: 'Can you manage through this crisis properly?'"

“The key takeaway for the U.S. investor is this: A No vote is not priced into the market,” says Sassan Ghahramani, president and CEO of SGH Macro Advisors, a consulting firm focused on global economic issues. It won’t be a “Lehman moment,” Ghahramani says, referring to the financial chaos that followed the demise of Lehman Brothers. But “the Euro could drop a lot and the dollar strengthen a lot and the Fed, which wants to hike in September, won’t want to raise rates.”

SGH Macro Advisors: “The headline that really caught our attention was Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis’ threat to resign if the country votes “Yes” on Sunday. It is very hard to imagine a “threat” that would galvanize and cheer the YES camp more than that … A yes outcome after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras campaigned so hard for a no vote will certainly leave him severely damaged politically. But we suspect he will survive and soon be limping his way back to Brussels.”

Sassan Ghahramani, CEO of SGH Macro Advisors, a policy research company based in New York, writes that withdrawals have reached a record of 1.4 billion per day in recent days. He is hopeful that Greece can secure an extension on its bailout. But he writes of the basically frozen nature of the Greek banking system already. He writes:

And, more importantly, European Union officials have been considering a short-term — rather than 9-month — extension and contingency funding plan, assuming some kind of agreement can be cobbled together, writes Sassan Ghahramani, CEO of SGH Macro Advisors, policy research company based in New York. Ghahramani points to a little-noticed report in Germany’s Der Bild suggesting Germany would reject a third bailout but would extend the existing program: “Buried in the piece is confirmation of one of the key developments we have been flagging – namely that German lawmakers may be considering the option of releasing the 10.9 billion euro EFSF/HFSF funds as an alternative to a formal program disbursement. But this will obviously also be controversial and assumes Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras can and will deliver credible and politically ‘highly visible’ concessions and a budget plan for meeting the 1% primary budget target.”

SGH Macro Advisors, LLC, a New York-based macro policy research firm founded in 2009 serving the world's leading hedge funds, asset managers, and financial policymakers, is pleased to announce an expansion in sales and content, including Energy, Mideast, Japan, US and Europe coverage.

“After struggling for almost two months to force the bombastic Tsipras government to finally move beyond grandstanding and focus on the urgent need for providing a credible budget to the EU” the euro area won’t ease its demands, Sassan Ghahramani and Kevin Muehring of SGH Macro Advisors wrote in a note to clients. At the same time, they said, “discussions between the EU and Greece are now, finally, on a more constructive path.”

Sassan Ghahramani, CEO of New York-based SGH Macro Advisors, which advises hedge funds, said the ECB move to increase the ELA for Greek banks was "a defensive move and it is awkward because they are doing this as negotiations are not progressing". "The ECB does not want to be the institution that pulls the plug (on Greece) and they certainly want to be contributing towards a stable environment. But they have limitations on their mandate and the Greeks need to understand this," he added.

"I expect they will deliver, and launch a QE program that will be probably larger than 500 billion (euros)," said Sassan Ghahramani, CEO of New York-based SGH Macro Advisors, which advises hedge funds.

FOMC would be better served eliminating the phrase; would allow FOMC to move further along evolution of qualitative guidance adopted last March, Sassan Ghahramani CEO of SGH Advisors writes.

"I think the big headwind on the credit multiplier is the banks themselves," said Sassan Ghahramani, CEO of New York-based SGH Macro Advisors, which advises hedge funds. "It's a terrible environment for them," he said with reference to the ECB health check and pressure for capital restructuring. "Undoubtedly it (the TLTRO) is going to help rather than harm. The question is the multiplier issue – there is a bottleneck with the banks."

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