As with her last speech on September 19, the European Central Bank (ECB) will not post the text of Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s speech today, just the slides accompanying her
Over the past few weeks our base case expectation has been for the European Central Bank (ECB) to pause on October 17 and stay at a quarterly rate cut path
Today’s policy decisions, forecast revisions, and communications by the European Central Bank (ECB) reinforced the case and confirmed to us a preference for a gradual normalization process that relies on
As the European Central Bank delivers the second 25-basis-point rate cut of this cycle on Thursday, we expect the communication included in the policy statement and press conference will maintain
In our latest round of European Central Bank (ECB) reports, we penciled in a 25 bp rate cut at each of the Governing Council’s (GC) next two quarterly forecast meetings,
The economic data and the minutes of the July monetary policy meeting released today pave the way for the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates by 25 bps
This week’s sharp market moves will almost certainly impact the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy decision making process, not because of the volatility per se, which could be a distant
European natural gas prices spiked today on reports – yet to be confirmed — that Ukrainian troops have seized the last operating link connecting Russian gas to Europe. While a critically important geopolitical development, we
July 31, 2024 The July eurozone inflation report published today fails to settle what is still an open debate around the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting on September
The European Central Bank (ECB) explicitly affirmed in today’s policy statement that it is not pre-committing to any rate path from here. To leave no doubt as to what that
There is no expectation of an interest rate decision at the upcoming Thursday, July 18 monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank. Markets will, however, be keenly watching this
The European Central Bank’s annual conclave at Sintra, Portugal, concluded as we expected with little change to the narrative of a bank that is in the process of removing policy
While out of consensus and a call that has been decidedly more hawkish than markets, as we conveyed to clients on our trip through London last week, we continue to
In the weeks running up to last Thursday’s June 6 “hawkish cut” by the European Central Bank, and after numerous ultra-cautious comments regarding further rate cuts by Governing Council officials,
There was little drama surrounding today’s fully priced decision by the European Central Bank to shave 25 basis points off its benchmark deposit rate, from 4.0% to 3.75%. If we
If the European Central Bank had not already formed consensus around, and widely telegraphed, a 25 bp rate cut at its upcoming policy meeting on June 6, the data over
Financial markets have picked up on Isabel Schnabel’s comments in an interview today with Japan’s Nikkei news agency in which the highly influential European Central Bank Executive Board Member explicitly
European Central Bank officials universally agree that the most recent April inflation data are “more or less” in line with the March quarterly projections. With services inflation having finally broken
Today’s eurozone April inflation data reinforces the case for at least three rate cuts by the ECB this year and provides more evidence that the gap between the disinflationary processes