Questions and Answers We are getting many questions about the potential pace of rate cuts. This is not unexpected. Recall what we wrote almost two weeks ago (Tim Duy’s Fed Watch,
Why Not November? With market participants largely anticipating rate cuts in September and December, attention has turned to the November FOMC meeting. We think a November cut is a bet
Monday Morning Notes, 7/22/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Encouraged by softer inflation numbers and increasingly concerned by a still-softening labor market, Fed doves grow eager to cut
Quick Note on Powell Although Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell today again demurred on explicitly signaling the timing of a rate cut, he opened the door further for a September
Data Delivering Support for the Doves I suspected that if I took a vacation the data would finally break in a more interesting direction. That is exactly what happened. (Despite
On Vacation I will be on vacation for the next two weeks with limited access to email. Market participants are stuck in a holding pattern with pricing for September remarkably
Monday Morning Notes, 7/1/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The debate between Fed hawks and doves continued this week as the latter intend to use expected softer inflation
Monday Morning Notes, 6/24/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Softer inflation data, assuming it continues, helps clear the way to a rate cut later this year. Multiple Fed
Monday Morning Notes, 6/17/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning In the June SEP, the Fed penciled in one rate cut for 2024 with the bulk of participants split
Fed Stays Hawkish Despite CPI Despite this morning’s surprisingly low inflation print, the FOMC meeting ended largely as we anticipated with our very out-of-consensus expectation that the median FOMC participant would
Monday Morning Notes, 6/10/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The employment report revealed that job growth rose faster than expected in May while the unemployment rate continued to
JOLTS Data Raises a Red Flag The JOLTS report revealed a drop in openings along with downward revisions for March leaving the openings rate at 4.8% in April compared to
Monday Morning Notes, 6/3/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed has settled into a space that it is likely to occupy throughout much of the summer. It
Monday Morning Notes, 5/27/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We are in something of a holding pattern at the moment. The Fed is waiting for fresh inflation data
Waller Kills July, Leaves September in Doubt Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller’s closely watched speech matched our expectations, but the contrast with his subsequent CNBC interview left market participants scratching
Monday Morning Notes, 5/20/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning April’s softer inflation data is a step in the right direction, but the Fed needs even softer numbers to
Monday Morning Notes, 5/13/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Blindsided by elevated inflation in the first quarter, the Fed has shifted back to “wait and see” mode and
Monday Morning Notes, 5/6/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The April employment report will help reassure the Fed that it doesn’t need to raise policy rates again but
Powell Derails Rate Hike Speculation While the FOMC as expected validated market pricing of fewer rate cuts this year, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell took great pains today to avoid
While We Wait We have been getting more questions about how quickly the Fed could turn to a neutral bias, or even to hiking rates. The answer is that shift
