Reports Tagged: Tim Duy’s Fed Watch

September 26, 2022

Monday Morning Notes, 9/26/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed delivered an unmitigatedly hawkish message last week and financial market participants heard that message loud and clear.

September 21, 2022

On the Way to 5% The FOMC meeting concluded with a hawkish message that foreshadows another 75bp at the November meeting. More rate hikes will follow; the outcome of this

September 20, 2022

Asked and Answered Final thoughts heading in the FOMC meeting, in Q&A format. Why not just pull the trigger on a 100bp rate hike? Great question, if you know you

September 19, 2022

Monday Morning Notes, 9/19/22 This morning’s note focuses on this week’s FOMC meeting. The Fed will add to its string of 75bp rate hikes at this meeting and again signal

September 13, 2022

Quick Note on August CPI The August CPI number was abysmal and opens the door to above 4% rates by the end of this year. Core-CPI rose 0.6% for the

September 12, 2022

Monday Morning Notes, 9/12/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is on track to raise rates 75bp next week, with more to follow. Simply put, now that

September 07, 2022

Quick Note on the Brainard Speech While Federal Reserve Board Lael Brainard did not explicitly say September’s FOMC meeting will conclude with a 75bp hike, neither did she push back

September 06, 2022

Tuesday Morning Notes, 9/6/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The employment report did not provide any real new information. Although it was in some ways weaker than anticipated,

August 30, 2022

JOLTS, Williams The JOLTS numbers surprised with an uptick in job openings: I think openings are slowly cooling similar to the pattern ahead of the pandemic, but openings need to

August 29, 2022

Monday Morning Notes, 8/29/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell left little doubt about his policy objectives at last week’s Jackson Hole gathering. There

August 22, 2022

Monday Morning Notes, 8/22/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed expects to keep raising rates, and not cut rates early in the next cycle, as it sees

August 17, 2022

Minutes Reveal a Bearish Fed The minutes of the July FOMC meeting were more dovish than I anticipated, although “bearish” might be a better description. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s

August 15, 2022

Monday Morning Notes, 8/15/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The outcome of the next meeting remains up in the air, but the overall path the Fed expects to

August 10, 2022

Good, But Not Enough to Change Destination The Fed will welcome the unexpected easing of inflation in July, and the number alone favors a 50bp move in September over 75bp.

August 09, 2022

All Eyes on the CPI Report Fed speakers leaned into a hawkish narrative last week as they attempted to undo the market’s dovish interpretation of the July FOMC meeting. We

August 02, 2022

Mester, Daly, Evans Pushback, Waller Victory As we expected, Fed officials are pushing back on the market’s dovish interpretation of last week’s FOMC meeting. Cleveland Federal President Loretta Mester was

August 01, 2022

Monday Morning Notes, 8/1/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Inflation is running hot, and the Fed is super-hawkish, but the Fed hasn’t been able to make that message

July 27, 2022

The End of Super-Sized Rate Hikes Market participants were looking for something that could be called a policy pivot, and the Fed delivered. As we expected, the Federal Reserve Chair

July 26, 2022

Final Thoughts Ahead of Fed Day Things I am thinking about in preparation for tomorrow’s FOMC decision: Higher for longer. I think the Fed wants to pull attention away from

July 25, 2022

Monday Morning Notes, 7/25/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning This week the Fed will lift policy rates 75bp and signal that although this is most likely the last