CPI Eases Inflation Concerns A soft CPI report spurred a rally in bonds and reignited bets on rate cuts this year. It doesn’t change our expectations that the Fed is
PPI Soft, But PCE Components Solid PPI inflation was softer than expected though market participants quickly noted that underlying components supported an increase in core-PCE estimates. We build upon that
Monday Morning Notes, 1/13/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The employment report supports our expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady for the foreseeable future, likely at
Hawkish Minutes Overshadow Dovish Waller Federal Reserve Governor Waller reiterated support for additional rate cuts if inflation falls as expected, but the release of the December FOMC meeting minutes reveal
JOLTS Will Keep Fed on Sidelines Despite Mixed Message The November JOLTS report revealed a surge in job openings while the hiring and quit rates fell: Job openings rose to
Monday Morning Notes, 1/6/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Welcome to 2025. The Fed will leave policy unchanged at the January FOMC meeting, and we anticipate that will
Monday Morning Notes, 12/23/24 This is a shortened holiday week edition of Monday Morning Notes. As we exit 2024, a new game’s afoot. The Fed looks determined to hold policy
Fed Delivers the Hawkish Cut The Fed cut policy rates 25bp, signaled a skip in January, and opened the door to an extended pause, all as we expected. The Fed,
Monday Morning Notes, 12/16/24 The Fed will cut policy rates 25bp this week and signal an expectation to slow the pace of cuts in 2025. We expect that between the statement,
Monday Morning Notes, 12/9/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will almost certainly cut rates at next week’s FOMC meeting. Employment rebounded in November as expected but
Fedspeak Supportive of December Cut The lack of any pushback against a December rate cut and Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller’s lean in favor of a cut matches our expectation
JOLTS Consistent with December Cut October job openings came in at 7.7m compared to expectations of 7.5m while September was revised downward. While above expectations, October openings remained below August levels. Looking
Monday Morning Notes, 12/2/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We expect Fed speakers will firm up expectations for the December FOMC meeting this week ahead of the blackout
Monday Morning Notes, 11/25/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed speakers continue to deliver a consistent theme directing market participants to expect a slower pace of rate cuts
The September SEP is Calendar Guidance Monetary policy is not on a preset path. Still, the September SEP is almost always effectively calendar-guidance for the final three meetings of the
Monday Morning Notes, 11/18/24 I am back from vacation and catching up on last week’s slew of Fedspeak. We focus this week’s note on that Fedspeak given the waning confidence
Powell Sets Up For a Pause The Fed cut policy rates 25bp as expected today. Westand by our guidance from yesterday: Another 25bp cut in December is likely but not
Tuesday Morning Notes, 11/12/24 A quick note for this week before I head off on vacation. The Fed’s near-term focus remains on the data while market participants continue to digest
Market participants have reacted more quickly than the Fed to the threat of tariffs. A look back at 2018 reveals that the Fed’s research on tariffs evolved over time and
