Fed Not Thinking About a September Pause It has been quite the swing in market sentiment over the past few weeks as contemplation of a 75bp rate hike gave way
Monday Morning Notes, 5/23/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed remains on track to hike rates 50bp at each of the next two FOMC meetings. What happens
Fed Speakers Sparring Over September We have been highlighting the September meeting as a possible pivot point for monetary policy, and Fed speakers are now presenting their baseline expectations for
Quick Note on Powell Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained his resolute messaging on inflation in his Tuesday Wall Street Journal interview. The Fed is committed to restoring price stability,
Monday Morning Notes, 5/16/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed remains committed to restoring price stability and has signaled another two 50bp rate hikes are needed to
Quick Inflation Note The latest read on inflation offers no comfort for the Fed. Inflation both headline and core surprised on the upside in April, the latter driven by a
Fed Themes Fed speakers have been out in force today, and I see them coalescing around some central themes. This is my effort to pull together those themes into one
FOMC Recap The outcome of the May FOMC meeting fell entirely in line with our expectations. The near-term policy path is all but certain with another two 50bp rate hikes
Monday Morning Notes, 5/9/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed has largely decided the near-term policy path, and it expects to tighten rates 50bp at each of
JOLTS, Final Thoughts Ahead of the FOMC Meeting The JOLTS report is sure to reinforce Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s conviction that the labor market is overheating. Job openings unexpectedly
Monday Morning Notes, 4/25/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed’s near-term path is clear, with a series of likely three and maybe more 50bp hikes beginning at
Fed Speak, Beige Book, Underlying Inflation In the category of “give credit where credit is due,” notice that Fed presidents are doing a better job of leading us to the
Williams, Waller Help Clear the Way for 50 Fed officials continue to foam the runway for a series of 50bp hikes with the only real question in the near-term of
Brainard: Enough is Enough Even as inflation pushes to new highs for the cycle, watch for the Fed to put the brakes on market expectations for rate hikes. Headline CPI
Monday Morning Notes, 4/11/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning It’s full steam ahead for monetary policy with the Fed positioned to begin a series of 50bp rate hikes
The Fed Means Business The Fed Means Business As we expected, the minutes of the March FOMC meeting leaned hawkishly with respect to plans for both interest rates and the
The Fed Is Only Becoming More Hawkish Governor Lael Brainard’s speech today dispelled any lingering notions that she would lean against the hawkish direction taken by her colleagues. Expect the
Monday Morning Notes, 4/4/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Everything is shaping up for the Fed to initiate the first of at least two consecutive 50bp rate hikes
Yield Curve Inversion, Fed Presidents, JOLTS Report The 2s10s spread briefly inverted today, intensifying focus on the recession predicting abilities of the yield curve. Our view has been that inversion
