Reports Tagged: Tim Duy’s Fed Watch

January 31, 2023

Quick Note on ECI ECI came in on the soft side with deceleration in wages, benefits, and wages excluding compensation: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has elevated the importance of

January 30, 2023

Monday Morning Notes, 1/30/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will downshift to a 25bp rate hike at the conclusion of this week’s FOMC meeting while indicating

January 26, 2023

Quick Note on Unemployment Claims Assuming inflation stays within the Fed’s expectations for 2023, the odds for a May rate hike depend heavily on the strength of the labor market.

January 25, 2023

Fed Committed to a March Rate Hike Bloomberg reports traders edging their toes into the water on a bet against a March rate hike: With the Federal Reserve’s Feb. 1

January 19, 2023

Quick Note on Brainard Markets shrugged off the more dovish comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard as any of her typical inclinations are arguably already priced into rates.

January 18, 2023

Thoughts on the Fed and Financial Conditions One of the most frequent questions we get from clients is about the Fed and financial conditions. Specifically, if the Fed pauses, won’t

January 17, 2023

Tuesday Morning Notes, 1/17/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning With the urgency to tighten policy clearly fading, the Fed is on track for a 25bp rate hike at

January 12, 2023

Quick Comment on CPI Sorry for the delay, I have been traveling to Washington, D.C. this week. December core CPI inflation came in at 0.3%, in line with expectations. This

January 09, 2023

Monday Morning Notes, 1/9/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The employment report sent mixed messages between solid job growth, a low unemployment rate, and weaker wage growth. While

January 05, 2023

FOMC Minutes, Continued With some new data and Fedspeak on hand, and more on the way, I want to add some additional color to last night’s review of the minutes.

January 04, 2023

It’s About the Unemployment Rate The minutes of the December FOMC leaned hawkish and highlighted the gap between the Fed and market participants regarding the likely direction of monetary policy.

January 03, 2023

Tuesday Morning Notes, 1/3/23 We begin the year where we ended the last, with the Fed still raising interest rates but balancing the pace and extent of rate hikes against

December 22, 2022

Final Thoughts Ahead of the Holidays This is how I am thinking about the economy and the Fed as we approach the New Year: The Fed is very certain it

December 20, 2022

Quick Roundup: BOJ, Housing, Neutral Rates, Unemployment The Bank of Japan finally joined the party, effectively aiding the Fed’s efforts. The Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised the cap on Japan’s

December 19, 2022

Monday Morning Notes, 12/19/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Despite the recent welcome inflation numbers, the Fed still needs to reduce overheating in the labor market to prevent

December 15, 2022

Fed Speakers Incoming We will be watching to see if Fed speakers push back on the market’s unenthusiastic embrace of this week’s FOMC meeting message. New York Federal Reserve President John

December 14, 2022

Fed Projects Policy Rates Above 5% The Fed raised rates 50bp as expected and signaled more to come. The SEP-implied terminal rate rose to 5.125%, greater than my expectations of

December 13, 2022

Quick CPI Note November inflation came in lower than expected with core-CPI printing at 0.2%, down from 0.3% in October: This feeds into the disinflationary narrative and supports the case

December 12, 2022

Monday Morning Notes, 12/12/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is poised to raise rates 50bp at this week’s FOMC meeting and project that at least another

December 05, 2022

Monday Morning Notes, 12/5/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is gearing up for a 50bp rate hike at next week’s meeting and given the repeated guidance