Quick Note on ECI ECI came in on the soft side with deceleration in wages, benefits, and wages excluding compensation: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has elevated the importance of
Monday Morning Notes, 1/30/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will downshift to a 25bp rate hike at the conclusion of this week’s FOMC meeting while indicating
Quick Note on Unemployment Claims Assuming inflation stays within the Fed’s expectations for 2023, the odds for a May rate hike depend heavily on the strength of the labor market.
Fed Committed to a March Rate Hike Bloomberg reports traders edging their toes into the water on a bet against a March rate hike: With the Federal Reserve’s Feb. 1
Quick Note on Brainard Markets shrugged off the more dovish comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard as any of her typical inclinations are arguably already priced into rates.
Thoughts on the Fed and Financial Conditions One of the most frequent questions we get from clients is about the Fed and financial conditions. Specifically, if the Fed pauses, won’t
Tuesday Morning Notes, 1/17/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning With the urgency to tighten policy clearly fading, the Fed is on track for a 25bp rate hike at
Quick Comment on CPI Sorry for the delay, I have been traveling to Washington, D.C. this week. December core CPI inflation came in at 0.3%, in line with expectations. This
Monday Morning Notes, 1/9/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The employment report sent mixed messages between solid job growth, a low unemployment rate, and weaker wage growth. While
FOMC Minutes, Continued With some new data and Fedspeak on hand, and more on the way, I want to add some additional color to last night’s review of the minutes.
It’s About the Unemployment Rate The minutes of the December FOMC leaned hawkish and highlighted the gap between the Fed and market participants regarding the likely direction of monetary policy.
Tuesday Morning Notes, 1/3/23 We begin the year where we ended the last, with the Fed still raising interest rates but balancing the pace and extent of rate hikes against
Final Thoughts Ahead of the Holidays This is how I am thinking about the economy and the Fed as we approach the New Year: The Fed is very certain it
Quick Roundup: BOJ, Housing, Neutral Rates, Unemployment The Bank of Japan finally joined the party, effectively aiding the Fed’s efforts. The Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised the cap on Japan’s
Monday Morning Notes, 12/19/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Despite the recent welcome inflation numbers, the Fed still needs to reduce overheating in the labor market to prevent
Fed Speakers Incoming We will be watching to see if Fed speakers push back on the market’s unenthusiastic embrace of this week’s FOMC meeting message. New York Federal Reserve President John
Fed Projects Policy Rates Above 5% The Fed raised rates 50bp as expected and signaled more to come. The SEP-implied terminal rate rose to 5.125%, greater than my expectations of
Quick CPI Note November inflation came in lower than expected with core-CPI printing at 0.2%, down from 0.3% in October: This feeds into the disinflationary narrative and supports the case
Monday Morning Notes, 12/12/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is poised to raise rates 50bp at this week’s FOMC meeting and project that at least another
Monday Morning Notes, 12/5/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is gearing up for a 50bp rate hike at next week’s meeting and given the repeated guidance