Reports Tagged: Tim Duy’s Fed Watch

June 17, 2024

Monday Morning Notes, 6/17/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning In the June SEP, the Fed penciled in one rate cut for 2024 with the bulk of participants split

June 12, 2024

Fed Stays Hawkish Despite CPI Despite this morning’s surprisingly low inflation print, the FOMC meeting ended largely as we anticipated with our very out-of-consensus expectation that the median FOMC participant would

June 10, 2024

Monday Morning Notes, 6/10/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The employment report revealed that job growth rose faster than expected in May while the unemployment rate continued to

June 04, 2024

JOLTS Data Raises a Red Flag The JOLTS report revealed a drop in openings along with downward revisions for March leaving the openings rate at 4.8% in April compared to

June 03, 2024

Monday Morning Notes, 6/3/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed has settled into a space that it is likely to occupy throughout much of the summer. It

May 27, 2024

Monday Morning Notes, 5/27/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We are in something of a holding pattern at the moment. The Fed is waiting for fresh inflation data

May 22, 2024

Waller Kills July, Leaves September in Doubt Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller’s closely watched speech matched our expectations, but the contrast with his subsequent CNBC interview left market participants scratching

May 20, 2024

Monday Morning Notes, 5/20/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning April’s softer inflation data is a step in the right direction, but the Fed needs even softer numbers to

May 13, 2024

Monday Morning Notes, 5/13/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Blindsided by elevated inflation in the first quarter, the Fed has shifted back to “wait and see” mode and

May 06, 2024

Monday Morning Notes, 5/6/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The April employment report will help reassure the Fed that it doesn’t need to raise policy rates again but

May 01, 2024

Powell Derails Rate Hike Speculation While the FOMC as expected validated market pricing of fewer rate cuts this year, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell took great pains today to avoid

May 01, 2024

While We Wait We have been getting more questions about how quickly the Fed could turn to a neutral bias, or even to hiking rates. The answer is that shift

April 30, 2024

Quick Note on ECI and Housing Prices Today’s ECI data offers further support for a hawkish tilt at tomorrow’s post-FOMC meeting press conference. ECI gave in hot at 1.2% for

April 25, 2024

Hot Inflation Keeps the Fed on the Sidelines Notice: I will be on vacation through Sunday. As a result, there will be no Monday Morning Notes next week. The direction

April 22, 2024

Monday Morning Notes, 4/22/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Market participants have now more than fully reversed last year’s Fed pivot trade. The CPI report forced market participants

April 16, 2024

Fed Leadership Validates Market Pricing With a one-two punch, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson validated the post-CPI market pricing. A June rate cut is almost

April 15, 2024

Monday Morning Notes, 4/15/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Last week’s inflation data created a string of three reports that combined to throw cold water on the “bumpy

April 10, 2024

Inflation Data Derails the Doves The March CPI numbers point to another hot month for the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, PCE, derailing the hoped-for June rate cut and raising the

April 08, 2024

Monday Morning Notes, 4/8/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Job growth continues to run hot, but the Fed sees that growth reflecting the supply side shock of faster

April 04, 2024

Ahead of the Employment Report Market expectations for tomorrow’s employment report sit in a range consistent with a June rate cut. Wall Street anticipates that nonfarm payrolls grew 213k in March