Markets have taken almost a full rate cut out of the euro rate curve over the past month, and almost two rate cuts since the peak dovish pricing of early
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde made clear in her latest speech on December 16 that the central bank will continue to cut rates over the coming meetings. Lagarde acknowledged
Going into the two-day meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank concluded today, ECB officials had pretty much squelched our call and other earlier calls for a
In calling for a 50bps cut at the European Central Bank’s December 12 meeting we, and markets, have twice knowingly run well ahead of the more cautious preference stated by
As expected, eurozone headline inflation rose in November, increasing from 2% in October to 2.3%. This was mainly due to energy base effects the European Central Bank has long incorporated
While careful to keep her options open, European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel presented in an interview published today an unmitigatedly hawkish interpretation of the economic data, outlook,
Today’s awful November eurozone, German, and French PMI numbers confirming that services, following manufacturing, are now starting to crack as well should serve as a wake-up call to European Central
Summary We note and take seriously pushback from many key ECB officials against a “jumbo” 50bps rate cut at the upcoming December meeting, and the desire for predictability and a
Clients have been asking us how the European Central Bank and European Union might respond to last night’s decisive election victory by former president Donald Trump. Here are some quick
There is little doubt that yesterday’s Q3 eurozone GDP data and today’s October inflation prints help bolster the case for a steady 25 bp rate of pace cuts at the upcoming Governing
As expectations of a victory by former US president Donald Trump on November 5 rise, so have concerns by European Central Bank officials over the pressure that his proposed tariff
There will be plenty of commentary from European Central Bank and other central bank officials around the IMF meetings in Washington, DC. One common theme, and new development coming out
The European Central Bank cut rates by 25bps today from 3.5% to 3.25%, as was by now fully expected in markets. With all the focus thus on the official language and press
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank started the first day of its two-day monetary policy meeting today. Since switching our call on September 23 from a hold to
US President Joe Biden stated today that the White House is discussing the possibility that Israel may strike Iran’s oil facilities in response to the Islamic Republic’s Tuesday missile attacks
As with her last speech on September 19, the European Central Bank (ECB) will not post the text of Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s speech today, just the slides accompanying her
Over the past few weeks our base case expectation has been for the European Central Bank (ECB) to pause on October 17 and stay at a quarterly rate cut path
Today’s policy decisions, forecast revisions, and communications by the European Central Bank (ECB) reinforced the case and confirmed to us a preference for a gradual normalization process that relies on
As the European Central Bank delivers the second 25-basis-point rate cut of this cycle on Thursday, we expect the communication included in the policy statement and press conference will maintain
