The European Central Bank confirmed today that its updated operational framework will operate a demand-driven floor system with the deposit facility rate (DFR) as the policy rate. As expected, the
The all-important European Central Bank quarterly staff forecast revisions came in today as expected, with 2024 headline inflation, the biggest mover, dropping from 2.7% to 2.3%, 2024 growth revised down
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank will be presented with important quarterly forecast revisions when it convenes on Wednesday and Thursday of this week for its March 6-7
The Euro area February PMIs released yesterday strengthened the hand of the European Central Bank leadership and Governing Council members who, barring an unforeseen shock to the trend of recent
Market expectations and the debate over whether the European Central Bank will first cut rates at its March 6, April 11, or June 6 meeting have been deliberately and methodically
Financial markets repriced odds for a 25-basis points rate cut at the European Central Bank’s April 11 meeting to near certainty after ECB President Christine Lagarde refused to explicitly rule
On January 10, we wrote that market pricing for the timing of ECB rate cuts, even though off its highs, was still too aggressive. We said that there would be
Over the last few weeks, the eurozone’s four largest economies unveiled issuance plans that add up to €1.25 trillion ($1.36 trillion) in sovereign debt this year. Despite these still elevated, even if
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos today acknowledged that inflation has been falling more rapidly than in their latest forecast, and that the eurozone may have entered a
Note: We are pleased to announce that Victor Mendez-Barreira, formerly at the publication Central Banking, has joined SGH as ECB analyst to support CEO Sassan Ghahramani’s coverage of the central bank.
In our last few reports, we wrote that the ECB would at this meeting reposition itself closer to markets – significantly closer than the outdated “legacy” signaling from the September
In an interview with a major international news service today European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel repositioned her outlook, acknowledging not just the steeper than expected drop in
The European Central Bank had been long expecting a steep drop in inflation in October and November, especially on the back of the base effect of high energy prices last
After a furious campaign of 450 basis points of rate hikes, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank took in essence a well-deserved breather at their two-day policy meeting
The political, market, and geopolitical news cycles have entered a new phase of enormous risk and volatility. But from a policy perspective, the upcoming meeting of the Governing Council of
ECB officials can be nothing but pleased that the September Eurozone preliminary CPI release on Friday came in significantly below the August numbers, finally and decisively breaking below the 5%
On Tuesday morning of this week, we flipped our expectations for today’s meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank from a pause to calling — unequivocally —
Markets are still favoring a pause and are pricing a European Central Bank rate hike this week at less than even odds. But we are switching our expectations for the
Last Wednesday, on the heels of awful eurozone service sector PMI figures, we switched our call for the European Central Bank’s September 14 decision from a 25-basis point rate hike
European bond markets rallied this morning after the release of August PMI numbers that showed a deeper than expected slowdown in Eurozone services sector activity, even as the beaten down