Monday Morning Notes, 4/20/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is set to hold policy steady at next week’s FOMC meeting. There was no pressing case for
Quick Update: Bessent, Trump, and the Fed In interviews this week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has offered his implicit support of steady monetary policy, at least for the time
Inflation Updates To date the Federal Reserve has held a bottom-up view of inflation betting on a three-leg parlay – goods prices slow as tariff impacts fade, housing disinflation continues,
Monday Morning Notes, 4/13/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Iran conflict continues this week, and with it continued upward pressure on energy prices. With labor markets largely
Monday Morning Notes, 4/6/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning It looks like the Federal Reserve has both underestimated the persistence of inflation and overestimated potential growth, ironically following
Updated Federal Reserve Probabilities Updated Probabilities Our updated probabilities continue to point to a patient Fed navigating tension on both sides of its dual mandate, at least until the data
Monday Morning Notes, 3/23/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Iran conflict and associated energy shock have intensified the tension between the two sides of the Fed’s mandate.
Monday Morning Notes, 3/16/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The challenge for the Fed this week, particularly its most dovish participants, is that three consecutive hot core PCE
Monday Morning Notes, 3/9/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Depending on the duration and magnitude of the war in Iran and coming energy shock, Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Ahead of the Employment Report Friday’s employment report will help set the tone for the March FOMC meeting. At this point with Fed doves holding firm to their expectation that all
Monday Morning Notes, 3/2/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The US and Israel dominated the news over the weekend as they launched an attack on Iran, killing key
AI, Warsh, and the Search for Neutral Key Points Discussion and Analysis The Federal Reserve is wrestling with how AI and higher productivity more broadly could affect the economic and
Labor Market Update: Openings, AI, and Wage Growth While market participants focus on the potential impact of AI on white-collar jobs, AI-impacted job openings appear to be firming as well
Monday Morning Notes, 2/23/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will hold rates steady at the March and April FOMC meetings. At this juncture we see less
FOMC Participants on a Collision Course with Warsh? Market participants largely shrugged off the hawkish implications of the January FOMC meeting minutes, rightly so as it had limited near-term implications.
Monday Morning Notes, 2/16/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning While December CPI inflation did not surprise on the upside, the passthrough to PCE inflation, the Fed’s official target,
Economy Looks Softer than GDP Indicates Today’s data releases point to a labor market that continues to cool while consumer demand ended the year on a weak note. Combined with last
Monday Morning Notes, 2/9/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Market participants remain stuck in a space where it’s difficult to have conviction on anything other than the broad
Fed Research Anticipates the New Chair We see a recent trend in Fed research explaining balance sheet issues. Perhaps this is just a coincidence as two of the notes predate
