Monday Morning Notes, 8/10/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The July employment report is broadly consistent with a low breakeven rate labor market operating near full employment. While

Inflation, Supply Shocks and Accelerated Pass-Through Our view remains that the US economy has settled into an above-target inflation regime. It is possible that the Fed’s long-held, bottom-up view of inflation

Monday Morning Notes, 8/3/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference has sparked a conversation about the Fed’s ability to maintain credibility, but we

All Hat, No Cattle In a 9-3 decision, the FOMC marked the occasion of the 63rd month (and counting) of above-target inflation by holding rates steady. Our lean on regime change came

Monday Morning Notes, 7/26/26 The Fed has been moving toward a rate hike all year. In our view, it’s been inevitable, it’s only an issue of timing. Inflation is too high

Monday Morning Notes, 7/20/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We have a shorter note this morning given that the die appears to be cast for the upcoming FOMC

Ahead of the Weekend: July is Dead This week’s inflation data put an end to the debate over July and shifted the discussion to the question of a September rate

Hawkish Waller Opens the Door to July A hawkish Fed Governor Chris Waller opened the door to a July rate hike, but the CPI data might close that tomorrow. In the

Monday Morning Notes, 7/13/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We continue to circle around the same space. Missing on only one side of its mandate, the Fed is

Thoughts for the Weekend: Don’t Expect Price Stability Anytime Soon Whether or not a Warsh Fed hikes rates in July or September, we don’t expect to see price stability anytime

Odds and Ends: Hassett, Bowman A couple of things that slipped below the radar in the last couple of weeks. First, White House NEC Director Kevin Hassett’s recents comments appear to be

Momentum For Hikes Building Yesterday, Fed Governor Chris Waller shifted hawkish again with comments that open the door to rate hikes. Speaking in Rome, Waller acknowledged that the risks to the

Monday Morning Notes, 7/6/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning While new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has adopted our language and says the Fed has “recommitted to price stability,”

Labor Market Strengthens Further One pillar of the Federal Reserve’s benign view of persistent, above-target inflation is that the labor market is not currently a source of inflationary pressure. However, if

Upcoming PCE Methodology Changes Last week, in a preview of this fall’s annual update, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) noted they will be changing the deflator for three categories:

Monday Morning Notes, 6/29/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Although Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has promised regime change and price stability, it is not evident that the Fed

Updated Fed Probabilities The June 2026 SEP makes clear that Fed officials believe they are only missing on one side of the mandate. However, what is less clear is the

Monday Morning Notes, 6/22/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has promised the Fed will deliver price stability, which is presumably the regime change he

On the Edge of Regime Change Our repeated mantra has been that the only true regime change new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh can deliver is a recommitment to price stability.

Monday Morning Notes, 6/15/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We estimate that core PCE inflation likely rose to 3.4% (year-over-year) in May, well above the Fed’s target. With