December 2025 SEP Projections The Fed is expected to deliver a hawkish cut next week though it strikes us as challenging to make any credible commitment to not cut again
Monday Morning Notes, 12/1/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The December FOMC meeting no longer appears “live,” with a rate cut by now largely priced in by market
Monday Morning Notes, 11/24/25 It looks like the Fed will let market participants go into blackout without near certainty of the December outcome because the situation remains very fluid. Still,
Short Note on Williams Note I am still on vacation. New York Fed President John Williams’ description of supporting a cut in the “near term” is sufficiently vague to describe
Holding Our Odds Steady We retain our 80% odds that the Fed does not cut rates at the December FOMC meeting. We don’t think the Fed will see the uptick
Very Short Fed Note Quick update as I am on vacation. The Fed remains positioned to hold rates steady in December. A consensus September employment report would seal the deal, though
Monday Morning Notes, 11/17/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We think the Fed is poised to leave the policy rate unchanged at the December FOMC meeting, and if
The Centrists Speak Out The outcome of the upcoming December FOMC meeting is now set to be a clash between the hawks and the doves on the committee, but the
“Modestly” Versus “Somewhat” Note: Tonight, Fed Governor Michael Barr is speaking. The topic, “AI and Innovation,” does not lend itself naturally to the near-term rate path. Still, Barr’s October 9
Monday Morning Notes, 11/10/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning A growing number of Fed officials, including Board members, are building a narrative with four basic parts to support
Monday Morning Notes, 11/3/25 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has navigated a path of increasingly difficult compromises as he manages a politicized Fed. It remains to be seen what rabbit
Course Correction We detect widespread resistance to flipping December calls to no cut, ourselves included. We think, however, that’s the direction this is heading. Despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s
Did Powell Tip His Hand? Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wrangled his colleagues into another rate cut this week, but can he do it again in December? We think he
Final Thoughts Heading Into Fed Day We have been working with many clients over the last two days in preparation for this week’s FOMC meeting and thought it appropriate to
Monday Morning Notes, 10/27/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will cut policy rates another 25bp at this week’s FOMC meeting and will most likely follow up with
Reassessing the Stars The next few months’ data could reveal a good deal about the economic crosscurrents, and potentially how much of the recent labor market weakness is cyclical versus potentially
Monday Morning Notes, 10/20/25 We shortened this week’s note again given the lack of new official data with also included comments on recent visits with New York clients. The Fed
Tuesday Morning Note, 10/14/25 We shortened this week’s note given the lack of new official data and the US holiday-shortened week for the Treasury market. The Fed remains on track to
Monday Morning Notes, 10/6/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is on track to cut rates at the October and December FOMC meetings. If the job market
The Shutdown Begins The Federal Reserve restarted rate cuts in September and projected 75bp of easing this year in that month’s SEP. We expect the Fed follows through on the
