Monday Morning Notes, 4/20/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is set to hold policy steady at next week’s FOMC meeting. There was no pressing case for
Quick Update: Bessent, Trump, and the Fed In interviews this week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has offered his implicit support of steady monetary policy, at least for the time
Inflation Updates To date the Federal Reserve has held a bottom-up view of inflation betting on a three-leg parlay – goods prices slow as tariff impacts fade, housing disinflation continues,
Monday Morning Notes, 4/13/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Iran conflict continues this week, and with it continued upward pressure on energy prices. With labor markets largely
Monday Morning Notes, 4/6/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning It looks like the Federal Reserve has both underestimated the persistence of inflation and overestimated potential growth, ironically following
Monday Morning Notes, 3/30/26 Due to limited new data last week and a busy travel schedule, this week features an abbreviated Monday note. Last week (Tim Duy’s Fed Watch 3/26/26)
Updated Federal Reserve Probabilities Updated Probabilities Our updated probabilities continue to point to a patient Fed navigating tension on both sides of its dual mandate, at least until the data
Labor Market Update There is not yet convincing evidence that the labor market is deteriorating. Absent such deterioration, the Fed will be challenged to cut policy rates when inflation is
Monday Morning Notes, 3/23/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Iran conflict and associated energy shock have intensified the tension between the two sides of the Fed’s mandate.
Like Deer Caught in the Headlights The Fed left interest rates unchanged as it issued a dovish Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) which Chair Jerome Powell quickly threw under the
Ahead of the FOMC Meeting The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) tomorrow should be very informative given the general belief among market participants that Chair Jerome Powell will massage
Monday Morning Notes, 3/16/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The challenge for the Fed this week, particularly its most dovish participants, is that three consecutive hot core PCE
Monday Morning Notes, 3/9/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Depending on the duration and magnitude of the war in Iran and coming energy shock, Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Ahead of the Employment Report Friday’s employment report will help set the tone for the March FOMC meeting. At this point with Fed doves holding firm to their expectation that all
Monday Morning Notes, 3/2/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The US and Israel dominated the news over the weekend as they launched an attack on Iran, killing key
AI, Warsh, and the Search for Neutral Key Points Discussion and Analysis The Federal Reserve is wrestling with how AI and higher productivity more broadly could affect the economic and
Labor Market Update: Openings, AI, and Wage Growth While market participants focus on the potential impact of AI on white-collar jobs, AI-impacted job openings appear to be firming as well
Monday Morning Notes, 2/23/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will hold rates steady at the March and April FOMC meetings. At this juncture we see less
FOMC Participants on a Collision Course with Warsh? Market participants largely shrugged off the hawkish implications of the January FOMC meeting minutes, rightly so as it had limited near-term implications.
Monday Morning Notes, 2/16/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning While December CPI inflation did not surprise on the upside, the passthrough to PCE inflation, the Fed’s official target,
