Monday Morning Notes, 3/18/24 We forego our usual Monday morning format to focus on the FOMC meeting and market implications. We expect the FOMC will conclude its two-day meeting this
Quickly on the March SEP We have been inundated with questions about the March SEP, clearly a signal that we need to provide some guidance ahead of our usual Monday
Inflation a Thorn in the Fed’s Side February core-CPI inflation printed at 0.36%, which rounded up to 0.4%, above the consensus estimate of 0.3%. Based on the underlying numbers, estimates
Monday Morning Notes, 3/11/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed continues to circle around a June rate cut but it hinges on the data cooperating between now
Powell Offers Up Little New Information Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made no news in today’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. Powell stuck to the consensus line the
Monday Morning Notes, 3/4/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is holding tight to the consensus view that rate cuts will likely be appropriate later this year
Monday Morning Notes, 2/26/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed looks back to 1995 as a guide to achieving a soft landing in this cycle. Notably, in
Minutes Offer Little New Guidance The minutes of the January FOMC meeting offered little new guidance. Although the Fed had gained greater confidence in the inflation outlook, it still needed
Tuesday Morning Notes, 2/20/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed continues its efforts to steer the economy into a soft landing. From its perch, the economy appears
Preemptive Rate Cuts Delayed After months of surprising on the downside, January core-CPI inflation printed at 0.4% compared to expectations for 0.3%. While there may be temporary factors boosting this number
Monday Morning Notes, 2/12/24 The Fed expects that it will begin the process of normalizing policy rates this year. The sharp decline of inflation in the second half of last
Closer, But Not Quite Yet There The Fed held rates steady today and shifted toward a more neutral policy stance in the FOMC statement, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
Quick Note There is a rumor floating around that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be featured on 60 Minutes in the next week. We can’t confirm this rumor at this
Monday Morning Notes, 1/29/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Falling inflation drove the Fed to pivot to an active discussion of the timing of the first rate cut.
Into the Grinder Managing the path to the first rate cut in this cycle has become more challenging with the inclusion of a greater weight on the growth/jobs outcomes. The most
Monday Morning Notes, 1/22/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The last 10 weeks have been a wild ride. Since we first posited the possibility of a March rate
Managing the Path to the March Meeting Market odds of a March rate cut dropped sharply today to around 50% with the move fueled in part by a strong retail
Low Bar for a March Rate Cut As we expected, Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller did not endorse a March rate cut. But he most certainly didn’t rule it out.
Tuesday Morning Notes, 1/16/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed speakers have provided some minimal pushback on market pricing for a March cut, but key speakers have provided none
A Few Quick Bites Ahead of the CPI Report Considering this progress, I voted to maintain the policy rate at its current level while we continue to monitor the incoming