Monday Morning Notes, 7/9/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We think the Fed is eyeing a rate cut in September, but we assess the odds of that outcome

A Shifting Balance of Risks We see signs that inflation may be softer than the Fed anticipates while the labor market is more vulnerable to downside risks. Tomorrow’s June employment report may

Monday Morning Notes, 6/30/25 This is a shortened note for a holiday-shortened trading week.  After pushing back on rate cuts all year, we said we couldn’t maintain that strategy with

Powell Holds His Ground Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his message from last week’s FOMC press conference in today’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony. The Fed is on hold this summer and will

MAGA Takeover at The Fed Federal Reserve Vice-Chair of Supervision Michelle Bowman and Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller have aligned politically with President Donald Trump to support a July rate