Quick Look at Today’s Data June Inflation June PCE inflation printed a touch lighter than even our below-consensus estimate, though still broadly within expectations. Headline PCE rose 0.28% on a month-over-month

A Defiant Powell Holds Rates Steady The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting. As expected, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Chris Waller

After two months on hold, the Bank of England (BOE) looks set to resume monetary easing with a 25 basis-point cut in rates to 4 percent next week amid contracting

Monday Morning Notes, 7/28/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Despite enormous pressure from the White House, the Fed will not cut policy rates at the end of this

With Japan’s upper house elections concluded and a critical trade agreement with the US secured, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is clear to resume its gradual monetary policy normalization and

Some interesting comments from an economic official in China in the run-up to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s meeting next week in Stockholm with his Chinese counterpart, Vice-Premier He Lifeng,

After lowering interest rates by 200-bps since June 2024, as expected the European Central Bank (ECB) left its benchmark interest rate today at 2%, adding the Governing Council (GC) is

European Union Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic gave a downbeat briefing to EU government ambassadors last Friday after conversations with three different US officials last week – US Trade Representative Jamieson

The head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president Antonio Costa will be in Beijing on Thursday for talks with China’s Premier Li Qiang and President Xi Jinping

European Central Bank (ECB) officials will start their summer break with a clearly signaled rate pause, leaving the benchmark deposit rate at 2% when their monetary policy meeting concludes this

The Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) collapse in Japan’s upper house elections has left Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba presiding over a minority government in both chambers of the Diet — all

Monday Morning Notes, 7/21/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed faces an increasingly challenging environment as it approaches upcoming policy decisions. It won’t cut rates at the

The Financial Times, citing European Union negotiators, reported a few minutes ago that US President Donald Trump has suggested he might simply be done with it all and hit the

Just days ahead of Japan’s Upper House elections, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has sidestepped another potential political blow from what otherwise might have appeared to be a rushed trade deal

Note: Tim Duy is on vacation this week. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified that the Fed did not yet expect substantial tariff-induced inflation to be visible in the data.

The Bank of England (BOE) is on a firmly dovish path, with two 25 basis point rate cuts likely in the second half of this year amid contracting growth and

Rumors have been swirling over the past few weeks that China’s President Xi Jinping, after a breathtaking consolidation of power not seen since the days of Mao Zedong, is facing

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stunned markets, keeping the cash rate at 3.85%, and defied widespread expectations (including ours) of a 25-basis point cut this week. RBA Governor Michele

After a painfully slow start to negotiations, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz whipped his European Union counterparts to accept a 10% baseline tariff rate to reach a quick deal with the

With Japan’s upper house elections fast approaching and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s grip on the legislature under direct threat from stepped-up pressure by US President Donald Trump, the Bank of