Monday Morning Notes, 7/9/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We think the Fed is eyeing a rate cut in September, but we assess the odds of that outcome

In the wake of a bruising week for the UK’s Labour government, speculation is intensifying that Chancellor Rachel Reeves may ultimately be sacrificed as a political scapegoat for the mounting

A Shifting Balance of Risks We see signs that inflation may be softer than the Fed anticipates while the labor market is more vulnerable to downside risks. Tomorrow’s June employment report may

For months we resisted the popular market narrative that insisted the Bank of Canada (BOC) was nearing the end of its easing cycle. Those who have engaged us on Canada

European Central Bank (ECB) officials have adopted a strong consensus to pause at their next monetary policy meeting on July 24, with the Governing Council looking to test over the summer whether