A cut at the European Central Bank’s next meeting in April to follow the 25bps cut in its benchmark deposit ratetoday to 2.5% is clearly a decision that is very much up in the air. But although today’s press

European rates markets, under a bit of pressure already over the prospect for potentially higher defense spending, came under further pressure yesterday after the release of a hawkish interview with

Please excuse brevity and bullet format as we are on the road. Following up on yesterday’s report “ECB: Tariff Threats and Rates Below 2%,” in light of some significant points

The last 24 hours have delivered a whirlwind of US President Donald Trump delivering on tariff threats, as we have warned he would many times, concessions from Mexico and Canada

Today’s Q4 2024 GDP data release reinforced the weak momentum and somewhat bleak outlook for growth in three of the “big four” euro area economies — Germany, France, and Italy

The European Central Bank will cut 25bp, from 3% to 2.75% on its benchmark deposit facility rate, when the Governing Council convenes this week in Frankfurt. While preserving the flexibility

Markets have taken almost a full rate cut out of the euro rate curve over the past month, and almost two rate cuts since the peak dovish pricing of early

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde made clear in her latest speech on December 16 that the central bank will continue to cut rates over the coming meetings. Lagarde acknowledged

Going into the two-day meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank concluded today, ECB officials had pretty much squelched our call and other earlier calls for a

In calling for a 50bps cut at the European Central Bank’s December 12 meeting we, and markets, have twice knowingly run well ahead of the more cautious preference stated by

As expected, eurozone headline inflation rose in November, increasing from 2% in October to 2.3%. This was mainly due to energy base effects the European Central Bank has long incorporated

While careful to keep her options open, European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel presented in an interview published today an unmitigatedly hawkish interpretation of the economic data, outlook,

Today’s awful November eurozone, German, and French PMI numbers confirming that services, following manufacturing, are now starting to crack as well should serve as a wake-up call to European Central

Summary We note and take seriously pushback from many key ECB officials against a “jumbo” 50bps rate cut at the upcoming December meeting, and the desire for predictability and a

Clients have been asking us how the European Central Bank and European Union might respond to last night’s decisive election victory by former president Donald Trump. Here are some quick

There is little doubt that yesterday’s Q3 eurozone GDP data and today’s October inflation prints help bolster the case for a steady 25 bp rate of pace cuts at the upcoming Governing

As expectations of a victory by former US president Donald Trump on November 5 rise, so have concerns by European Central Bank officials over the pressure that his proposed tariff

There will be plenty of commentary from European Central Bank and other central bank officials around the IMF meetings in Washington, DC. One common theme, and new development coming out

The European Central Bank cut rates by 25bps today from 3.5% to 3.25%, as was by now fully expected in markets.  With all the focus thus on the official language and press

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank started the first day of its two-day monetary policy meeting today. Since switching our call on September 23 from a hold to