The message from the leadership of the European Central Bank since mid-March has been that beyond a well telegraphed 25 basis points cut in June from its benchmark 4% deposit
The European Central Bank today modified its policy statement to add that if the inflation outlook, core inflation dynamics, and policy transmission evolve as expected in the coming weeks and
For about three weeks Euro rates markets have traded in a narrow range, pricing between 85 and 95 basis points of cuts by the European Central Bank for the second
At the latest press conference on March 7, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announced that the central bank intends to present the results of its operational framework review on
The European Central Bank confirmed today that its updated operational framework will operate a demand-driven floor system with the deposit facility rate (DFR) as the policy rate. As expected, the
The all-important European Central Bank quarterly staff forecast revisions came in today as expected, with 2024 headline inflation, the biggest mover, dropping from 2.7% to 2.3%, 2024 growth revised down
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank will be presented with important quarterly forecast revisions when it convenes on Wednesday and Thursday of this week for its March 6-7
The Euro area February PMIs released yesterday strengthened the hand of the European Central Bank leadership and Governing Council members who, barring an unforeseen shock to the trend of recent
Market expectations and the debate over whether the European Central Bank will first cut rates at its March 6, April 11, or June 6 meeting have been deliberately and methodically
Financial markets repriced odds for a 25-basis points rate cut at the European Central Bank’s April 11 meeting to near certainty after ECB President Christine Lagarde refused to explicitly rule
On January 10, we wrote that market pricing for the timing of ECB rate cuts, even though off its highs, was still too aggressive. We said that there would be
Over the last few weeks, the eurozone’s four largest economies unveiled issuance plans that add up to €1.25 trillion ($1.36 trillion) in sovereign debt this year. Despite these still elevated, even if
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos today acknowledged that inflation has been falling more rapidly than in their latest forecast, and that the eurozone may have entered a
Note: We are pleased to announce that Victor Mendez-Barreira, formerly at the publication Central Banking, has joined SGH as ECB analyst to support CEO Sassan Ghahramani’s coverage of the central bank.
In our last few reports, we wrote that the ECB would at this meeting reposition itself closer to markets – significantly closer than the outdated “legacy” signaling from the September
In an interview with a major international news service today European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel repositioned her outlook, acknowledging not just the steeper than expected drop in
The European Central Bank had been long expecting a steep drop in inflation in October and November, especially on the back of the base effect of high energy prices last
After a furious campaign of 450 basis points of rate hikes, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank took in essence a well-deserved breather at their two-day policy meeting
The political, market, and geopolitical news cycles have entered a new phase of enormous risk and volatility. But from a policy perspective, the upcoming meeting of the Governing Council of