Quick Updates The NFIB Small Business Actual Earnings Change index plunged in August: This result is consistent with the Beige Book story that activity took a turn for the worse

Monday Morning Notes, 9/9/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed speakers gave little indication that they were leaning toward a 50bp rate cut at the September meeting. Instead,

The Waiting is the Hard Part Tomorrow is a critical day for market participants. The Fed prefers that market participants are nearly certain of the Fed’s intended course of action ahead

Crossing the Line At the risk of sounding repetitive, we think it’s important to go into the rest of this week remembering that Fed Chair Jerome Powell drew a line

Tuesday Morning Notes, 9/3/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning At this year’s Jackson Hole conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell drew a line in the sand. By the

Data Updates Some quick updates on data we are tracking and the implications for policy.  First, although the Conference Board confidence measure edged up, the labor differential fell in August:

Monday Morning Notes, 8/26/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears to agree with our assessment of the July employment report. Even if the August

BLS Revisions, FOMC Minutes The preliminary revisions to nonfarm payrolls revealed that government and education/health care employment drove almost all the job growth in the year ending in March 2024. The

Odds and Ends Quick updates and some items that haven’t made their way into a note. Bostic raises concerns about the labor market We aren’t sure we have ever seen

Monday Morning Notes, 8/19/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed argues that it is not data point dependent, but instead is data dependent. Still, any given data

Monday Morning Notes, 8/12/24 Given limited data last week, we forego the usual Monday morning format. The size of upcoming rate cuts depends on how quickly the Fed seeks to

Quick Note on Unemployment The focus on the Sahm Rule and whether the US is in recession misses the bigger picture told by the data. The bigger picture is that

Monday Morning Notes, 8/5/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Markets moved aggressively on weakening employment numbers on Friday. But they were just following an outlined reaction function. Neither the

Quick Update Markets have been volatile as traders unwind leveraged trades. At one point today, markets were pricing a 60% chance of an intermeeting rate cut by the Fed although

Fed Looks Behind the Curve The tide has turned against the Fed. With the Fed already poised to cut rates in September, a 50bp rate cut is pushing against an

Fed Sets Up September Cut The July FOMC meeting and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference fell in line with our expectations. While the statement did not directly hint at

Monday Morning Notes, 7/29/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Backed by softer inflation and a more balanced labor market, the Fed will move closer to a rate cut this

Questions and Answers We are getting many questions about the potential pace of rate cuts. This is not unexpected. Recall what we wrote almost two weeks ago (Tim Duy’s Fed Watch,

Why Not November? With market participants largely anticipating rate cuts in September and December, attention has turned to the November FOMC meeting. We think a November cut is a bet

Monday Morning Notes, 7/22/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Encouraged by softer inflation numbers and increasingly concerned by a still-softening labor market, Fed doves grow eager to cut