Déjà Vu: September Sees Hot Inflation and Solid Spending Last week’s data reveals that the US economy continues to grow at a solid pace while inflation remains persistently above the
Monday Morning Notes, 10/19/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We are traveling this week and look forward to seeing many of you in person in New York City.
Updated Fed Probabilities Our updated, model-based probabilities point to a limited hiking cycle followed by an extended pause. A combination of policy inertia and the Fed’s disinflationary economic baseline prevent
Sometimes The Second Best Path is The Only Path Some quick follow up points after today’s note as we all contemplate what the Fed should do versus what it will
CPI Data Will Test Warsh The CPI print is something of a disaster for the Fed. The signaling has been crystal clear. The Fed anticipates that it is not hiking
Inflation Expectations Anchoring Higher? Policymakers continue to view near-term inflation expectations as largely driven by energy prices and longer-run expectations as anchored. From the September FOMC meeting minutes: Participants judged that
Monday Morning Notes, 10/12/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed speakers have strongly guided market participants to anticipate that the Fed will not hike rates at the upcoming
Waller Signals an October Skip Fed Governor Chris Waller followed the pack this morning and implied that although he anticipates additional policy adjustments, the rate hikes need not be sequential,
Minutes Confirm the Messaging The minutes of the September FOMC meeting follow last week’s messaging from key speakers. The minutes confirmed a lack of urgency to hike again with most participants
Labor Market is Fine The labor market has improved over the past year, and remains stable in recent months. September’s employment report failed to meet expectations with payrolls rising just
Monday Morning Notes, 10/5/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Last week Fed speakers made clear what we suspected, that the Fed intends to skip the October FOMC meeting
It’s About 2027 Now We are still traveling but want to offer this quick thought ahead of our last day in London. Fed Vice Chairs Philip Jefferson and Michelle Bowman
Inflation Revisions Confirm Elevated Regime BEA revisions lowered PCE inflation significantly, putting it on track to come in below the Fed’s September SEP. However, underneath the lower topline the inflation
Inflation: Odds and Ends The September SEP continues to embed the transitory inflation outlook at its center with median 2027 projections for headline PCE at 2.3% and core at 2.5%.
Monday Morning Notes, 9/28/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Note: We are traveling this week and in the interests of brevity are delaying the usual Monday data commentary.
The Fed is Losing Control If the Fed can’t control the narrative, market participants will pull it into an October rate hike. The September SEP indicated a solid preference for
Monday Morning Notes, 9/21/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed raised interest rates last week but appears to lack a clearly defined policy framework, leaving market participants
The New Sheriff Has Some Cattle After All Fed Chair Kevin Warsh led the FOMC to a rate hike as expected this week with the totality of the meeting outcome suggesting
Monday Morning Notes, 9/14/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Between Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech and inflation data near Fed Governor Chris Waller’s bar for a
Recent spats between the United States and China over Artificial Intelligence and Iran have led to speculation that the upcoming summit between US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi
