Monday Morning Notes, 6/22/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has promised the Fed will deliver price stability, which is presumably the regime change he
On the Edge of Regime Change Our repeated mantra has been that the only true regime change new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh can deliver is a recommitment to price stability.
Monday Morning Notes, 6/15/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We estimate that core PCE inflation likely rose to 3.4% (year-over-year) in May, well above the Fed’s target. With
June SEP Expectations We expect the Fed will deliver a credible set of economic projections at next week’s FOMC meeting. We expect only a handful of FOMC participants will write
Monday Morning Notes, 6/8/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is clearly missing on only one side of its mandate. With the labor market turning durably stronger,
Quick Take on the Employment Report The employment report surprised with 172k jobs gained in May plus 93k of upward revisions to previous months, confirming our view that the labor
Oil Shock Fears Overstate Near-Term Risks to Consumers Fed speakers and clients frequently cite expected consumer weakness due to higher energy costs as reason to be cautious about economic growth.
JOLTS, Hammack This morning’s JOLTS report for April supports our view that the labor market has likely turned durably stronger. Assuming the openings numbers continue to hold, it’s all about the
Monday Morning Notes, 6/1/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning As it stands now, the Fed’s policy stance will prove appropriate only if the economy rolls over soon. The
Monday Morning Notes, 5/26/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning While winding down the Iran conflict will provide some relief, it does not by itself solve the Fed’s inflation
The Pressure to Hike Rates Builds Market participants continue to price in greater odds of a December rate hike, now over 80%, on the expectation that the Fed will behave
Monday Morning Notes, 5/18/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning A new era begins with the Fed facing an inflation problem at least partly of its own making. Kevin
Updates: Hawkish Fedspeak, Inflation Data, Retail Sales Hawkish Fedspeak While a growing chorus of policymakers see above-target inflation as a greater risk they have yet to call for a rate
Monday Morning Notes, 5/11/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is on an indefinite hold. Even if incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh wants to cut rates, it’s
Market participants are in the waning days of the Powell Fed. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will gift his successor Kevin Warsh a notably more hawkish FOMC than when President Donald
Powell Does Not Go Quietly Into the Night As we expected, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at its April FOMC meeting, leaving the statement little changed, including guidance indicating
Final Thoughts Ahead of the FOMC We have been anticipating that the Fed will not update the FOMC statement language tomorrow to eliminate the suggestion that the next move is
Monday Morning Notes, 4/27/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The FOMC will hold rates steady this week and signal that policy is likely on hold for the foreseeable
Monday Morning Notes, 4/20/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is set to hold policy steady at next week’s FOMC meeting. There was no pressing case for
Quick Update: Bessent, Trump, and the Fed In interviews this week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has offered his implicit support of steady monetary policy, at least for the time
