It took us a second to realize the significance of the tweak in the third paragraph of this afternoon’s Federal Open Market Committee October meeting statement – we are slow
When the Federal Open Market Committee finally limps into their two day meeting tomorrow they will no doubt weigh what to take from the most recent data. But perhaps the
The reverberations in the wake of the stunning remarks made by Federal Reserve Governors Lael Brainard and Dan Tarullo in the last 48 hours will be many, but all are
With just hours before the Minutes to the September 16-17 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee are released later this afternoon, we think the Minutes may come off as
Sometimes pitching policy as “data dependent” can prove to be awkward for the Federal Reserve when the data sharply turns against expectations and the base case policy path being laid
If there was ever an opportunity to reset market expectations on the Federal Reserve’s near term reaction function, it would be Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s highly anticipated speech later
In the end, it was a pretty straightforward risk assessment decision captured in the money sentence of the statement that “Recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity
During our days on the High School chess team (don’t ask), our coach always advised when uncertain, be cautious and move the pawn. Coach Stocker’s advice has been on our
Four things to take away from this morning’s Non-Farm Payroll number and its most likely impact on the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy decision at its forthcoming September 16-17 meeting: First, there is nothing
A quick note to preview tomorrow’s much anticipated Non-Farm Payroll and how it might influence the Federal Open Market Committee’s thinking at its upcoming September 16-17 meeting. The short version
A few quick takeaways on the Federal Reserve’s likely near policy path in the aftermath of the heavy messaging from officials at this weekend’s Jackson Hole conference: *** The
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Bill Dudley yesterday morning offered a surprisingly candid assessment of the current state of the Federal Open Market Committee consensus on a first
It would hardly be an understatement to say Federal Reserve officials will be keenly watching the worldwide market rout as closely as just about everyone else. The policy response will
We would have to say at the outset that the Minutes to the Federal Open Market Committee July meeting read more dovish in tone than we were expecting. And while
The Minutes to the Federal Open Market Committee’s July meeting may draw more than the usual amount of attention this Wednesday for any clues on the Federal Reserve’s near term
The most pressing question this morning is easily the likely impact of China’s surprise devaluation on the Federal Reserve’s current policy path. *** Our sense is that China’s devaluation, on
Some times on target is good enough, and this morning was one of those moments. After all the breathless anticipation and previous wide of the mark prints, this morning’s Non-Farm
Well, that was a bit boring after all the build-up. There are no overt or explicit signals about September in today’s Federal Open Market Committee statement, as we and just
We were a bit surprised by the market’s initial dovish reaction on Friday to the accidentally released Federal Reserve Board staff projections for the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
