It was awfully hard not to notice how many times Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen repeated how “modest” or “moderate” the changes by “some” of her colleagues on the Federal

Key Takeaways Soaring post-election consumer confidence and healthy data underscore the certainty of a rate hike this Wednesday. The growth and inflation forecasts, and the 2017 rate projections, are unlikely

Key Takeaways The December rate hike remains all but certain; the rate dot plots should stabilize at existing levels, marking the peak of Fed dovishness. The impact of a presumed

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen probably jumped at the opportunity to give a keynote speech on Friday at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s conference on “The Elusive Great Recovery.”

Key Takeaways The September Minutes later today will highlight the FOMC “close call” debate over where the greater risk was in the timing to a rate move before year-end. Despite

For the Federal Open Market Committee, this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls was just fine. The key number for the Fed wasn’t just the 156,000 job gains in September — which was

The outcome to today’s Federal Open Market Committee decision was more or less right in line with our expectations: no rate move despite what was probably a closely debated decision

The window for a rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee’s upcoming September 20-21 meeting has all but closed in the absence of firmer, clearer Fed messaging before the

Key Takeaways: While a move this month still cannot be ruled out, we now think, on balance, the Federal Reserve is more likely than not to raise rates a second

We suspect that Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard never imagined in a month of Sundays the sort of market reaction that would greet the updated list of Fed speakers this

Key Takeaway: The NFP this morning still leaves the FOMC leaning to a September rate hike, but the Fed has a major communications challenge ahead to win over a still

Key Takeaways: Fed messaging at Jackson Hole was impressively disciplined on a rate hike as soon as September and no later than December, barring an unexpected downturn. There is unlikely

We wanted to wait a bit to think about Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s speech earlier this morning in Jackson Hole, especially after the rather hawkish coda put to it

How it seems a lifetime ago that the Federal Reserve went into this year charting some four rate hikes and yet, now nearly some eight months later, the debate is

Key Takeaways: The FOMC remains set on raising rates before year-end, with a Committee majority leaning towards a rate move as soon as September, provided the data continues on track.

There was nothing the Federal Reserve could possibly fret over in this morning’s Non-Farm Payroll: the pace of job creation last month was nearly three times the level the Federal

The intended takeaway from the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement this afternoon was neatly in line with what we suggested earlier this week to expect, that the path remains clear

The Federal Reserve is obviously not going to raise rates this week, but we do think it is working up its courage towards one. And on that note, perhaps the

Key Takeaways: Friday’s NFP went some way towards easing the Fed’s downside concerns and to reaffirm the case for policy normalization. If data continue to track the base case forecast,

Key Takeaways: The Federal Reserve is in a “watchful waiting” mode to weigh how the data and Brexit effects play out through at least the summer. A rate move at