Tuesday Morning Notes, 9/6/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The employment report did not provide any real new information. Although it was in some ways weaker than anticipated,
JOLTS, Williams The JOLTS numbers surprised with an uptick in job openings: I think openings are slowly cooling similar to the pattern ahead of the pandemic, but openings need to
Monday Morning Notes, 8/29/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell left little doubt about his policy objectives at last week’s Jackson Hole gathering. There
Monday Morning Notes, 8/22/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed expects to keep raising rates, and not cut rates early in the next cycle, as it sees
Minutes Reveal a Bearish Fed The minutes of the July FOMC meeting were more dovish than I anticipated, although “bearish” might be a better description. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s
Monday Morning Notes, 8/15/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The outcome of the next meeting remains up in the air, but the overall path the Fed expects to
Good, But Not Enough to Change Destination The Fed will welcome the unexpected easing of inflation in July, and the number alone favors a 50bp move in September over 75bp.
All Eyes on the CPI Report Fed speakers leaned into a hawkish narrative last week as they attempted to undo the market’s dovish interpretation of the July FOMC meeting. We
Mester, Daly, Evans Pushback, Waller Victory As we expected, Fed officials are pushing back on the market’s dovish interpretation of last week’s FOMC meeting. Cleveland Federal President Loretta Mester was
Monday Morning Notes, 8/1/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Inflation is running hot, and the Fed is super-hawkish, but the Fed hasn’t been able to make that message
The End of Super-Sized Rate Hikes Market participants were looking for something that could be called a policy pivot, and the Fed delivered. As we expected, the Federal Reserve Chair
Final Thoughts Ahead of Fed Day Things I am thinking about in preparation for tomorrow’s FOMC decision: Higher for longer. I think the Fed wants to pull attention away from
Monday Morning Notes, 7/25/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning This week the Fed will lift policy rates 75bp and signal that although this is most likely the last
Monday Morning Notes, 7/18/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will hike rates 75bp at next week’s FOMC meeting. With that move, policy rates will be near
Quick Note On Waller Comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicate the Fed remains focused on a 75bp rate hike at the July meeting. I suspected the Fed would
Another Disastrous CPI Report I am in New York City this week and only have time for a quick reaction to this morning’s CPI report. The June CPI report was
Monday Morning Notes, 7/11/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning A unified Fed is determined to quickly bring policy rates into restrictive territory, and nothing is likely to stop
Full Steam Ahead for the Fed As predicted with the Fed facing a deteriorating inflation outlook, the minutes of the June FOMC meeting took on a decidedly hawkish tone. Participants
Tuesday Morning Notes, 7/5/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed remains committed to restoring price stability even at the expense of growth. I think recession fears are
Fed Themes After the June FOMC Meeting We are tracking several themes that have emerged in the wake of the Fed’s decision to accelerate the pace of rate hikes: The
