Monday Morning Notes, 4/25/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed’s near-term path is clear, with a series of likely three and maybe more 50bp hikes beginning at
Fed Speak, Beige Book, Underlying Inflation In the category of “give credit where credit is due,” notice that Fed presidents are doing a better job of leading us to the
Williams, Waller Help Clear the Way for 50 Fed officials continue to foam the runway for a series of 50bp hikes with the only real question in the near-term of
Brainard: Enough is Enough Even as inflation pushes to new highs for the cycle, watch for the Fed to put the brakes on market expectations for rate hikes. Headline CPI
Monday Morning Notes, 4/11/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning It’s full steam ahead for monetary policy with the Fed positioned to begin a series of 50bp rate hikes
The Fed Means Business The Fed Means Business As we expected, the minutes of the March FOMC meeting leaned hawkishly with respect to plans for both interest rates and the
The Fed Is Only Becoming More Hawkish Governor Lael Brainard’s speech today dispelled any lingering notions that she would lean against the hawkish direction taken by her colleagues. Expect the
Monday Morning Notes, 4/4/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Everything is shaping up for the Fed to initiate the first of at least two consecutive 50bp rate hikes
Yield Curve Inversion, Fed Presidents, JOLTS Report The 2s10s spread briefly inverted today, intensifying focus on the recession predicting abilities of the yield curve. Our view has been that inversion
Monday Morning Notes, 3/28/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed stepped up the hawkish rhetoric last week to put market participants on notice that it intends to
Monday Morning Notes, 3/21/22 Note: As I am on a post-FOMC vacation this week, this is a condensed version of my usual Monday morning note. February retail sales surprised with
Bit and Pieces Ahead of the FOMC Monday was a busy start to the week. First, the New York Federal Reserve consumer survey reported that households expected to spend 6.4%
Monday Morning Notes, 3/14/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will hike rates 25 basis points this week and signal additional rate hikes in future meetings, including
Inflation Meets Expectations, Rocky Road for Raskin Inflation continues to run at a pace that keeps the Fed firmly focused on pushing rates higher. Market pricing has rebounded to an
Monday Morning Notes, 3/7/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed remains positioned to begin this rate hike cycle with a 25bp move next week and follow up
Powell Sticks With the Hawkish Script As we thought, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed is leaning toward beginning the rate hike cycle this month with a
Thoughts Ahead of Powell In recent decades, the Fed has repeatedly held back from tightening, or even eased, in response to crisis events and financial market instability. We know the
Tuesday Morning Note, 2/22/22 Note: I am forgoing the usual beginning of the week format in favor of a deeper dive into the Fed. I will circle back to data
Next Steps For Monetary Policy The yield curve continues to flatten relentlessly: The curve typically flattens during tightening cycles and consequently this should not be entirely unexpected. That said, I
