Final Thoughts Heading into the FOMC Decision Some things I am thinking about as we wait for the outcome of the FOMC meeting: It’s the politics? In retrospect, it is
Creating a Credible Unemployment Projection In my Monday note, I outlined our expectations for the next iteration of the dot-plot of interest rate projections to be released at the end
Monday Morning Notes, 6/6/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will hike rates 50bp at next week’s meeting, but that is already old news. More importantly, the
Data Might Quickly Put a Lock on September The Fed currently limits what I call “hard” forward guidance to only the next two FOMC meetings, June and July. The Fed
Tuesday Morning Notes If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We are still waiting for data to provide guidance on the Fed’s path beyond the July FOMC meeting. As a
Fed Not Thinking About a September Pause It has been quite the swing in market sentiment over the past few weeks as contemplation of a 75bp rate hike gave way
Monday Morning Notes, 5/23/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed remains on track to hike rates 50bp at each of the next two FOMC meetings. What happens
Fed Speakers Sparring Over September We have been highlighting the September meeting as a possible pivot point for monetary policy, and Fed speakers are now presenting their baseline expectations for
Quick Note on Powell Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained his resolute messaging on inflation in his Tuesday Wall Street Journal interview. The Fed is committed to restoring price stability,
Monday Morning Notes, 5/16/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed remains committed to restoring price stability and has signaled another two 50bp rate hikes are needed to
Quick Inflation Note The latest read on inflation offers no comfort for the Fed. Inflation both headline and core surprised on the upside in April, the latter driven by a
Fed Themes Fed speakers have been out in force today, and I see them coalescing around some central themes. This is my effort to pull together those themes into one
FOMC Recap The outcome of the May FOMC meeting fell entirely in line with our expectations. The near-term policy path is all but certain with another two 50bp rate hikes
Monday Morning Notes, 5/9/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed has largely decided the near-term policy path, and it expects to tighten rates 50bp at each of
JOLTS, Final Thoughts Ahead of the FOMC Meeting The JOLTS report is sure to reinforce Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s conviction that the labor market is overheating. Job openings unexpectedly
Monday Morning Notes, 4/25/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed’s near-term path is clear, with a series of likely three and maybe more 50bp hikes beginning at
Fed Speak, Beige Book, Underlying Inflation In the category of “give credit where credit is due,” notice that Fed presidents are doing a better job of leading us to the
Williams, Waller Help Clear the Way for 50 Fed officials continue to foam the runway for a series of 50bp hikes with the only real question in the near-term of
Brainard: Enough is Enough Even as inflation pushes to new highs for the cycle, watch for the Fed to put the brakes on market expectations for rate hikes. Headline CPI
