Evolving the Narrative Increasingly it appears the current SEP-implied terminal rate is not just a near-term target, but also some Fed speakers are hopeful that the Fed can hold at
Monday Morning Notes, 10/17/22 In the interests of succinctness, I am foregoing the usual format this week given that I already covered last week’s big data release, the CPI report.
CPI Again Not Helping the Fed Another terrible CPI report locks in a minimum of 125bp of rate hikes for the rest of the year, raises the odds of 150bp,
FOMC Minutes Tell a Familiar Story A key theme we have pushed is that the SEP-implied terminal rate contains a potentially dovish message within the overall hawkish outlook that drove
Monday Morning Notes, 10/10/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The employment report helps lock down another 75bp hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The most likely path over
Clarification on Excess Savings Some of you have pointed out an inconsistency between my and others’ estimates of excess savings. The difference is in the methodology. When I first estimated
Monday Morning Notes, 10/3/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed speakers held to the hawkish message of the July FOMC meeting despite the escalation of financial market volatility
Monday Morning Notes, 9/26/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed delivered an unmitigatedly hawkish message last week and financial market participants heard that message loud and clear.
On the Way to 5% The FOMC meeting concluded with a hawkish message that foreshadows another 75bp at the November meeting. More rate hikes will follow; the outcome of this
Asked and Answered Final thoughts heading in the FOMC meeting, in Q&A format. Why not just pull the trigger on a 100bp rate hike? Great question, if you know you
Monday Morning Notes, 9/19/22 This morning’s note focuses on this week’s FOMC meeting. The Fed will add to its string of 75bp rate hikes at this meeting and again signal
Monday Morning Notes, 9/12/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is on track to raise rates 75bp next week, with more to follow. Simply put, now that
Quick Note on the Brainard Speech While Federal Reserve Board Lael Brainard did not explicitly say September’s FOMC meeting will conclude with a 75bp hike, neither did she push back
Tuesday Morning Notes, 9/6/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The employment report did not provide any real new information. Although it was in some ways weaker than anticipated,
JOLTS, Williams The JOLTS numbers surprised with an uptick in job openings: I think openings are slowly cooling similar to the pattern ahead of the pandemic, but openings need to
Monday Morning Notes, 8/29/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell left little doubt about his policy objectives at last week’s Jackson Hole gathering. There
Monday Morning Notes, 8/22/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed expects to keep raising rates, and not cut rates early in the next cycle, as it sees
Minutes Reveal a Bearish Fed The minutes of the July FOMC meeting were more dovish than I anticipated, although “bearish” might be a better description. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s
