Monday Morning Notes, 4/21/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed expects to remain on hold until it has a clearer sense of which side of the mandate,

Quickly on Powell Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave no hope that a Fed “put” to support markets will come anytime soon. Here is the key paragraph in Powell’s speech: Our

When Congress returns from their two-week recess at the end of the month, they will begin the hard process of crafting and passing a budget in addition to raising the debt

Dovish Waller Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller maintained his out-of-consensus position in today’s speech. Waller was prescient on the upside of the pandemic inflation and then again on his labor market

Monday Morning Notes, 4/14/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning There is no easy summary this morning. The economic landscape remains complicated as President Donald Trump’s administration lurches between

Heading Into the Weekend When volatility is high, we find it important to maintain focus on the underlying forces. Some things to ponder over the weekend: It is critically important

Today, President Donald Trump, with a strong helping hand from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, righted the ship from the far too high April 2 tariff schedule that had been pushed

So Many Moving Pieces One of the most difficult aspects of this drama has been to keep in focus what we wrote on Monday: Over the weekend, however, the Trump administration

Quick on the Fed We have received multiple questions about the Fed and QE this morning as credit markets come under pressure. We remind readers what we wrote on Monday:

Quick Follow Up Clients have been asking about our hawkish take on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech last Friday, largely in disbelief that Powell would make such a hawkish

Monday Morning Notes, 4/7/25 This is a “Tariff Turmoil” edition given that the data has fallen by the wayside for the time being.  While it’s hard to hear on a

Holding Our Fed Call Steady We have not changed our Fed call in the wake of the latest tariff announcements. Given what we have on the table now in data and

First Thoughts on Tariffs Trump’s latest round of tariffs deepens the challenge facing the Fed. Even if ultimately some reciprocal tariffs are negotiated down, we expect the tariff baseline of

A Contrarian Take on the Labor Market Incoming ISM and JOLTS data point to slowing labor demand. Still unanswered, however, is the impact of Trump’s immigration policies on labor supply.

Monday Morning Notes, 3/31/25 We have been on the road this past week, and here is what we have been discussing with clients: But Trump continues to muse to advisers

Monday Morning Notes, 3/24/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed and financial market participants continue to wait for data that would clear the way for rate cuts.

No Cut Imminent, But Fed Has Dovish Take on Tariffs The March FOMC meeting ended with no change in either the policy rate or the expected path of rates. The outcomes

Monday Morning Notes, 3/17/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will hold rates steady this week as it balances risks to both sides of its mandate. We

Monday Morning Notes, 3/10/25 Despite a calm exterior, FOMC participants grow increasingly anxious about the rising risks to both sides of the mandate and the institution’s ability to resist pressure

Bits and Pieces We have been busy with client meetings this week. Below are some of the topics we have been discussing: Tariffs and SEP forecasts. FOMC participants did not fully