When it Happens, it Will Be a Pause, Not a Skip When the Fed stops cutting rates, it likely will be a pause, not a skip. The Fed won’t skip

Monday Morning Notes, 11/4/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The election takes center stage this week with polls showing Trump and Harris in a neck-to-neck race for the US

Data Update Ahead of the Employment Report Incoming data leave the Fed on track to continue cutting policy rates this year in November and December. Ongoing strong growth, however, would

The Fed views the labor market as no longer overheating and not a significant contributor to inflation. That leaves the Fed able to focus on protecting against further weakness in

Labor Market Still Cooling The JOLTS report revealed unexpected weakness in September job openings as well as downward revisions to August, although Hurricane Helene likely weighed on September openings. Further declines

Monday Morning Notes, 10/28/24 Trump trades continue to dominate financial market discussions and send yields higher, but attention may turn back to the data this week, at least temporarily, with

Update on the Near-Term Rate Path Market participants continue to run hard on the speculation of not only a Trump victory, but a Republican sweep across Congress, which in turn

Monday Morning Notes, 10/21/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning As far as the Fed is concerned, market participants are stuck in a holding pattern. Attention has shifted to

The renewed speculation in a Trump victory has sparked fresh concerns among market participants about the inflationary impacts that might result if he were to follow through on his campaign

A December Skip More Likely Than November We think Governor Chris Waller’s comments were consistent with the Fed likely stepping down to a 25bp rate cut in November. While he expects

Monday Morning Notes, 10/14/24 As we already discussed key data released last week, we have a shortened Monday Morning Note this week. The Fed is poised to cut rates 25bp

Fed Still On Track for November Cut Core CPI came in on the hot side, but we don’t think one print will change the Fed’s confidence that inflation is on

Long Versus Short Games Today’s JOLTS report is a reminder that the data does not always travel in a straight line. This is a space where we need to differentiate

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted the recent NIPA revisions removed a downside risk to the economy and suggests spending can continue at a healthy level in his Q&A at

Quickly on Powell Rates backed up after Chair Powell’s speech. In particular, in the Q&A he indicated that the revisions to GDI increased his confidence that the economy remained on

Monday Morning Notes, 9/30/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning This is a holding period while market participants await fresh direction from the data. Fed Chair Jerome Powell broke

Monday Morning Notes, 9/23/24 We have a shorter than usual Monday note as we process the events of the past two months.  Market participants currently anticipate a federal funds rate of

Fed Attempts to Lead With a “Hawkish 50” We have travelled a long road with a lot of twists and turns since we called for a 50bp rate cut in

Monday Morning Notes, 9/16/24 The Fed will most likely kick off this easing cycle with a 50bp cut this week. We are foregoing our usual format for a deeper dive

We Need To Be Nimble While we couldn’t ignore the pre-blackout messaging, we were hesitant to underweight the odds of a 50bp cut next week. Despite complacency about the labor market