Monday Morning Notes, 3/31/25 We have been on the road this past week, and here is what we have been discussing with clients: But Trump continues to muse to advisers
Monday Morning Notes, 3/24/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed and financial market participants continue to wait for data that would clear the way for rate cuts.
No Cut Imminent, But Fed Has Dovish Take on Tariffs The March FOMC meeting ended with no change in either the policy rate or the expected path of rates. The outcomes
Monday Morning Notes, 3/17/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will hold rates steady this week as it balances risks to both sides of its mandate. We
Monday Morning Notes, 3/10/25 Despite a calm exterior, FOMC participants grow increasingly anxious about the rising risks to both sides of the mandate and the institution’s ability to resist pressure
Bits and Pieces We have been busy with client meetings this week. Below are some of the topics we have been discussing: Tariffs and SEP forecasts. FOMC participants did not fully
Powell’s Test Given our position that Trump’s policy agenda is much more likely to trigger Fed rate cuts than rate hikes, we can hardly recommend that market participants attempt to
Monday Morning Notes, 3/3/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning This week will set the tone going into the Fed’s blackout period ahead of the March FOMC meeting. Fed
Last night Speaker of the US House of Representatives Mike Johnson (R-LA) defied media expectations, and with a strong assist from President Donald Trump squeaked his Budget Resolution through the
Fed Will Wait for Hard Data Another round of soft data, this time from the Conference Board, encouraged market participants to price in additional easing this year, including a 30%
Quick Data Note While we caution that regional Fed PMI surveys are soft data, the February Dallas Fed manufacturing PMI exemplifies the growing uncertainty to both sides of the distribution
The federal workforce is undergoing a significant transformation as Trump 2.0 implements buyouts and layoffs to reduce government headcount. While the immediate economic impact is muted, particularly from the Federal
Monday Morning Notes, 2/24/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning For the Fed, risks are growing to both sides of the distribution. On one side, Trump-driven uncertainty is beginning
Tuesday Morning Notes, 2/18/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning As we have expected since the beginning of the year, the Fed is positioning for an extended pause. FOMC
Quick Note on CPI There’s some risk to commenting on inflation ahead of the PPI numbers, but the January CPI release supports our view that the Fed will become more
My colleague Tim Duy and I just concluded a week in Washington DC where we had the opportunity to meet with a cross-section of policymakers, thinktanks, and friends, all of
Monday Morning Notes, 2/10/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed speakers have coalesced around a near-term hawkish narrative. With rates now down 100bp from their cycle peak, the
Circling the Wagons Very quickly this morning, we see the Fed as circling the wagons ahead of a hawkish repositioning in March. To be sure, the Fed’s ability to pull off
Monday Morning Notes, 2/3/25 Note: Shortened note as I am traveling today to join Sassan Ghahramani in Washington D.C., and although this is a jam-packed week for data that includes
Fed Remains on the Sidelines The January FOMC meeting ended as we anticipated with the Fed holding rates constant and Powell giving nothing to believe a March cut was on
