Preemptive Rate Cuts Delayed After months of surprising on the downside, January core-CPI inflation printed at 0.4% compared to expectations for 0.3%. While there may be temporary factors boosting this number
Monday Morning Notes, 2/12/24 The Fed expects that it will begin the process of normalizing policy rates this year. The sharp decline of inflation in the second half of last
Closer, But Not Quite Yet There The Fed held rates steady today and shifted toward a more neutral policy stance in the FOMC statement, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
Quick Note There is a rumor floating around that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be featured on 60 Minutes in the next week. We can’t confirm this rumor at this
Monday Morning Notes, 1/29/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Falling inflation drove the Fed to pivot to an active discussion of the timing of the first rate cut.
Into the Grinder Managing the path to the first rate cut in this cycle has become more challenging with the inclusion of a greater weight on the growth/jobs outcomes. The most
Monday Morning Notes, 1/22/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The last 10 weeks have been a wild ride. Since we first posited the possibility of a March rate
Managing the Path to the March Meeting Market odds of a March rate cut dropped sharply today to around 50% with the move fueled in part by a strong retail
Low Bar for a March Rate Cut As we expected, Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller did not endorse a March rate cut. But he most certainly didn’t rule it out.
Tuesday Morning Notes, 1/16/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed speakers have provided some minimal pushback on market pricing for a March cut, but key speakers have provided none
A Few Quick Bites Ahead of the CPI Report Considering this progress, I voted to maintain the policy rate at its current level while we continue to monitor the incoming
Monday Morning Notes, 1/8/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The minutes of the December FOMC meeting set the stage for the Fed to signal a March rate cut
Minutes Pave the Way for Rate Cuts While the minutes of the December FOMC meeting did not greenlight a rate cut for the March meeting, they did open the door
Monday Morning Notes, 1/2/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning With inflation having collapsed in the second half of 2023, the Fed will begin cutting rates by March to
Monday Morning Notes, 12/18/23 Rather than our traditional Monday note, we are winding down the year with an explanation for the Fed’s pivot, and where it might lead, to ponder
The Fed Pivot The Fed will cut rates by March, meaning that there is a nontrivial possibility of a January cut. We predicated our pivot at the beginning of November
Quick Note on CPI Core CPI inflation came in as expected at 0.3% for November: There is less momentum here than it appears if we strip out shelter and used
Monday Morning Notes, 12/11/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning In the beginning of November we took an aggressive position is establishing a baseline scenario that the Fed would
Wait For It Eventually the reality of disinflation will come crashing down on the Fed. It’s just a matter of whether that happens before persistently tight monetary policy sets in
