Resist the Urge to Bet Against the Consumer Regular readers know that we have remained consistently optimistic on consumer spending and maintain our position that you should never bet against

Monday Morning Notes, 9/11/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We need to assess how the risks for the Oct/Nov FOMC meeting, currently priced in at a 50% chance

Tuesday Morning Notes, 9/5/23 Though on the surface the employment report was weak, in the context of both the quirkiness of August numbers and the reacceleration of growth in the

Waiting For a Catalyst Although we remain optimistic that strong growth will push the Fed into another rate hike at the Oct/Nov FOMC meeting, that meeting is still two months

Monday Morning Notes, 8/28/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Jackson Hole was largely uneventful with Chair Powell’s speech in line with our expectations but somewhat hawkish relative to

Battlelines Drawn Heading into Powell’s Speech A quick note on the dueling headlines going into Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech that give a nice glimpse at the debate

Fed at a Crucial Juncture Market participants have pushed rates to a point that creates a potentially crucial juncture for the Fed. The 10-year rate has breached cycle highs while

Monday Morning Notes, 8/21/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning This is Jackson Hole week with Fed Chair Jerome Powell stepping up to the plate on Friday although it’s

The Fed’s Forecast is at Odds with Reality The Fed is going to get run over by the Q3 growth numbers. That’s the real takeaway from the minutes of the

Monday Morning Notes, 8/14/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Despite what looks like still solid growth in Q3, low inflation keeps the Fed on track for holding rates steady

The Fed’s Near- Pivot The Fed’s narrative has shifted in a dovish direction. The discussion has shifted from “how high do rates need to rise?” to “how long should rates

Monday Morning Notes, 8/7/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The July employment report was open to different interpretations; essentially, it’s a “choose your own adventure.” Fed doves will

Monday Morning Notes, 7/31/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We are entering a traditionally slow time of the year as we chew on data until the next FOMC

Monday Morning Notes, 7/24/23 The Fed will raise interest rates 25bp at this week’s FOMC meeting. The outcome of this meeting was effectively determined at the June meeting, something the

Growth Narrative Gets a Little Lift Quick note on the stickiness of yields so far this week as the growth narrative gets a lift. Today we got the latest unemployment

Monday Morning Notes, 7/17/23 Market participants are caught in the grips of a Goldilocks narrative as recession fears are once again pushed into the future while inflation suddenly looks vanquished.

CPI Surprises on the Soft Side June CPI inflation came in well below expectations with core growing at a 1.9% annualized rate: Excluding used autos and shelter, the pace of

Monday Morning Notes, 7/10/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning With a July rate hike already priced in, the focus of market participants will be on what happens next.

Data Dump Deals a Death Blow to the Imminent Recession Hypothesis The recession will have to wait. The ADP report came in red hot at 497k compared to expectations of

FOMC Minutes Leave the Policy Outlook Unchanged The minutes of the June FOMC meeting were thin, thin gruel that added little to our policy outlook. The underlying tone of the