With a rate hike all but certain at next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the policy debate is already shifting to the likely messaging for the rate path beyond

The takeaway from the Minutes released this afternoon to the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting ending February 1 was unmistakably clear: a rate hike is indeed being prepared for

With May rapidly becoming something of a base case on the timing to the next rate hike by the Federal Reserve, questions are invariably rising about a Brexit-like political risk

Directionally, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony this morning before the Senate Banking Committee was very much in line with the more hawkish bent of our report yesterday (see SGH

While we do not expect Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to send an overt signal about March in her twin testimonies on Capitol Hill tomorrow and Wednesday, we do think

The market may have whipsawed on this morning’s Nonfarm Payrolls print, but Federal Reserve officials will have responded to the jobs number with a satisfied smile. ** Today’s jobs data

Federal Reserve officials should thank President Trump for grabbing all the attention and headlines in the last week or so that would normally be speculating on what the Federal Open

Against the backdrop of the somewhat hawkish undertones to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco yesterday, Yellen will give what is likely to

Even amid all the emphasis on uncertainty, it would have been hard to miss the anxious, somewhat hawkish, tone to the descriptive narrative in the Minutes to the Federal Open

It was awfully hard not to notice how many times Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen repeated how “modest” or “moderate” the changes by “some” of her colleagues on the Federal

Key Takeaways Soaring post-election consumer confidence and healthy data underscore the certainty of a rate hike this Wednesday. The growth and inflation forecasts, and the 2017 rate projections, are unlikely

Key Takeaways The December rate hike remains all but certain; the rate dot plots should stabilize at existing levels, marking the peak of Fed dovishness. The impact of a presumed

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen probably jumped at the opportunity to give a keynote speech on Friday at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s conference on “The Elusive Great Recovery.”

Key Takeaways The September Minutes later today will highlight the FOMC “close call” debate over where the greater risk was in the timing to a rate move before year-end. Despite

For the Federal Open Market Committee, this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls was just fine. The key number for the Fed wasn’t just the 156,000 job gains in September — which was

The outcome to today’s Federal Open Market Committee decision was more or less right in line with our expectations: no rate move despite what was probably a closely debated decision

The window for a rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee’s upcoming September 20-21 meeting has all but closed in the absence of firmer, clearer Fed messaging before the

Key Takeaways: While a move this month still cannot be ruled out, we now think, on balance, the Federal Reserve is more likely than not to raise rates a second

We suspect that Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard never imagined in a month of Sundays the sort of market reaction that would greet the updated list of Fed speakers this

Key Takeaway: The NFP this morning still leaves the FOMC leaning to a September rate hike, but the Fed has a major communications challenge ahead to win over a still