Powell Drops the Hammer Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dropped the hammer in today’s testimony, making clear that the expected terminal rate will move higher and putting a 50bp rate

Monday Morning Notes, 3/6/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Recent data is pulling Fed speakers toward a higher terminal rate than implied by the December SEP but they

Monday Morning Notes, 2/27/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Last week’s core-PCE inflation numbers dashed hopes for a rapid decline of inflation. Indeed, claims that the disinflationary process

Stale Minutes Offer Little New Guidance The minutes of the Jan/Feb FOMC meeting gave no indication that there was anything but broad support for stepping down to 25bp but also

Tuesday Morning Notes, 2/21/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Whereas the Fed expected the economy would continue slowing this year, incoming data indicates that first quarter activity firmed.

Now Waiting For The Next Round of Data The Fed left the last FOMC meeting unprepared for the economy to stabilize let alone re-accelerate in the manner suggested by incoming

Quick Note on CPI Core CPI for January came in at expectations, and has now firmed over the past two months: Core less shelter and used cars remains off the

Monday Morning Notes, 2/13/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is searching for the terminal rate for this cycle and has its eye on 5.125%. The outcome,

Monday Morning Notes, 2/6/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Last Thursday I thought that this would be a shorter note and that we could all catch a break

In the interest of efficiency and time I thought we might share a few brief highlights of key market related points in (and not in) our reports while addressing some

With a ten-day distance from the stormy aftermath of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting last week, we would square the circle between the June meeting and the likely policy

A few points on the main takeaways we are expecting from this Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Chairman Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press remarks: ** On the anticipated signals

For all the endless commentary and repeated questions on the start to the Federal Reserve’s looming reduction in the pace of its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases, one can

For many Federal Reserve officials, among the harder points to stomach in the withering criticism of Fed policies by former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers earlier this week was his scathing

His irritation over being asked the same question multiple times about the tapering of asset purchases was palpable, but all else being equal, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell handled the

Federal Reserve officials will be going into their April 27-28 pre-meeting black-out later today with an unusually well-disciplined policy messaging: the economy is at an “inflection point” with a robust rebound “ready

In no small way, it is astonishing that the most important decision the Federal Open Market Committee will be weighing at their upcoming March 16-17 meeting is how they signal

Federal Reserve officials may be feeling a bit shell-shocked by the violent price action in the bond markets on Thursday, but their concern is less about the surge in longer-dated

More than half the Federal Open Market Committee will be flooding the zoomed air waves with public remarks this week, the high tide mark in the new communications wave being

Against the backdrop of reflation trades lifting bond yields and nudging inflation expectations higher, markets will be looking for any new signals or fine tuning to the Federal Reserve’s near