Challenging Fedspeak We are getting a lot of questions about hawkish sounding comments from Fed officials in recent days. With that in mind, I want to think about the state
Monday Morning Notes, 5/15/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will likely hold rates steady at the June meeting as it weighs the impact of banking stress
April CPI, Williams Speech On the surface, the April CPI report did not appear amenable to a pause at the June FOMC meeting. Core inflation grew at a slightly faster
Monday Morning Notes, 5/8/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Although the outcome of the June Fed meeting is technically still data dependent, banking stress and a potential debt
Takeaways from the FOMC Meeting The Fed hiked rates 25bp today and opened the door for a pause at the June FOMC meeting. Still, as we expected, the Fed did
Monday Morning Notes, 5/1/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will push policy rates up another notch this week to 5.125%. Although the Fed will likely keep
First Republic, Retail Sales Barring an eruption of uncontrollable deposit flight from the banking sector, the Fed will likely press forward with another rate hike even if First Republic Bank
Monday Morning Notes, 4/24/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is on track for another rate hike, and although it is much closer to the end of
Monday Morning Notes, 4/17/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Solid incoming data for both jobs and inflation combined with evaporating concerns about an imminent credit crunch keep the
Quick Notes Heading into Friday Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is on the calendar tomorrow. Waller is also on the calendar for next week ahead of the blackout period, but
CPI, Minutes, Fedspeak Incoming information points to another rate hike at the May meeting while the case builds for a pause at the June meeting, data dependent of course. Headline
Monday Morning Notes, 4/10/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Employment growth slowed in March yet still maintained a solid pace that keeps the Fed on track for another
JOLTs Data Cuts in a Dovish Direction It’s a long time until the May FOMC meeting, but incoming data this week, particularly today’s JOLTs report, has so far surprised on
Monday Morning Notes, 4/3/23 The outcome of the May meeting is still up in the air as the Fed balances the data flow against the potential for a deeper credit
Monday Morning Notes, 3/27/23 Reminder: I am on vacation the week of March 27, but I still wanted to leave a few placeholders for the week. Financial market participants have pulled
Dovish Hike Since Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, I have been caught between two potential paths for the Fed at this meeting. The first path is one the Fed has followed
Last Minute Thoughts Ahead of the FOMC Meeting Quick reminders as we head into this week’s FOMC meeting: We expect the Fed to hike rates 25bp. The Fed is caught
Monday Morning Notes, 3/20/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning This week we begin rebuilding a framework to understand the path of monetary policy after fixed income markets became
Beyond March This next Fed meeting is not about the data. The data supports a rate hike, and most likely the Fed would have hiked rates 50bp in the absence
Continued Financial Stress Argues for a Pause This is a fast-moving situation. While the economic data calls for additional rate hikes, the Fed does not hike rates in periods of
