The Pressure to Hike Rates Builds Market participants continue to price in greater odds of a December rate hike, now over 80%, on the expectation that the Fed will behave
Monday Morning Notes, 5/18/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning A new era begins with the Fed facing an inflation problem at least partly of its own making. Kevin
Updates: Hawkish Fedspeak, Inflation Data, Retail Sales Hawkish Fedspeak While a growing chorus of policymakers see above-target inflation as a greater risk they have yet to call for a rate
Monday Morning Notes, 5/11/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is on an indefinite hold. Even if incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh wants to cut rates, it’s
Market participants are in the waning days of the Powell Fed. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will gift his successor Kevin Warsh a notably more hawkish FOMC than when President Donald
Powell Does Not Go Quietly Into the Night As we expected, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at its April FOMC meeting, leaving the statement little changed, including guidance indicating
Final Thoughts Ahead of the FOMC We have been anticipating that the Fed will not update the FOMC statement language tomorrow to eliminate the suggestion that the next move is
Monday Morning Notes, 4/27/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The FOMC will hold rates steady this week and signal that policy is likely on hold for the foreseeable
Monday Morning Notes, 4/20/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is set to hold policy steady at next week’s FOMC meeting. There was no pressing case for
Quick Update: Bessent, Trump, and the Fed In interviews this week, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has offered his implicit support of steady monetary policy, at least for the time
Inflation Updates To date the Federal Reserve has held a bottom-up view of inflation betting on a three-leg parlay – goods prices slow as tariff impacts fade, housing disinflation continues,
Monday Morning Notes, 4/13/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Iran conflict continues this week, and with it continued upward pressure on energy prices. With labor markets largely
Monday Morning Notes, 4/6/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning It looks like the Federal Reserve has both underestimated the persistence of inflation and overestimated potential growth, ironically following
Monday Morning Notes, 3/30/26 Due to limited new data last week and a busy travel schedule, this week features an abbreviated Monday note. Last week (Tim Duy’s Fed Watch 3/26/26)
Updated Federal Reserve Probabilities Updated Probabilities Our updated probabilities continue to point to a patient Fed navigating tension on both sides of its dual mandate, at least until the data
Labor Market Update There is not yet convincing evidence that the labor market is deteriorating. Absent such deterioration, the Fed will be challenged to cut policy rates when inflation is
Monday Morning Notes, 3/23/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Iran conflict and associated energy shock have intensified the tension between the two sides of the Fed’s mandate.
Like Deer Caught in the Headlights The Fed left interest rates unchanged as it issued a dovish Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) which Chair Jerome Powell quickly threw under the
Ahead of the FOMC Meeting The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) tomorrow should be very informative given the general belief among market participants that Chair Jerome Powell will massage
Monday Morning Notes, 3/16/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The challenge for the Fed this week, particularly its most dovish participants, is that three consecutive hot core PCE
