Monday Morning Notes, 5/6/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The April employment report will help reassure the Fed that it doesn’t need to raise policy rates again but
Powell Derails Rate Hike Speculation While the FOMC as expected validated market pricing of fewer rate cuts this year, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell took great pains today to avoid
While We Wait We have been getting more questions about how quickly the Fed could turn to a neutral bias, or even to hiking rates. The answer is that shift
Quick Note on ECI and Housing Prices Today’s ECI data offers further support for a hawkish tilt at tomorrow’s post-FOMC meeting press conference. ECI gave in hot at 1.2% for
Hot Inflation Keeps the Fed on the Sidelines Notice: I will be on vacation through Sunday. As a result, there will be no Monday Morning Notes next week. The direction
Monday Morning Notes, 4/22/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Market participants have now more than fully reversed last year’s Fed pivot trade. The CPI report forced market participants
Fed Leadership Validates Market Pricing With a one-two punch, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson validated the post-CPI market pricing. A June rate cut is almost
Monday Morning Notes, 4/15/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Last week’s inflation data created a string of three reports that combined to throw cold water on the “bumpy
Inflation Data Derails the Doves The March CPI numbers point to another hot month for the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, PCE, derailing the hoped-for June rate cut and raising the
Monday Morning Notes, 4/8/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Job growth continues to run hot, but the Fed sees that growth reflecting the supply side shock of faster
Ahead of the Employment Report Market expectations for tomorrow’s employment report sit in a range consistent with a June rate cut. Wall Street anticipates that nonfarm payrolls grew 213k in March
Mester Raises Her Estimate of Neutral Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester’s remarks today reinforced our view that there is a real risk the Fed pushes a rate cut from June to
Monday Morning Notes, 4/1/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Markets continue to tread water waiting for the data to deliver clear direction. We sense that market participants desire
Ahead of Powell, Inflation, and a Long Weekend Clients have asked if we have changed our June call in response to Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller’s speech. No, we haven’t. We
Quick Note on Waller At the risk of cannibalizing material for my Monday note, it would be remiss to not provide some real-time guidance following tonight’s speech by Federal Reserve
Monday Morning Notes, 3/25/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Markets are stuck in the chop waiting for fresh data to provide direction. The Fed is circling around a
Hawkish Drift, But 2024 Median Holds Steady As we expected, the Fed retained a projection of three rate cuts for 2024 in its updated Summary of Economic Projections. Importantly, despite
Final Thoughts Ahead of the FOMC An intense focus on the possibility that the 2024 dots shift from three cuts to two in the March SEP has dominated the conversation
Monday Morning Notes, 3/18/24 We forego our usual Monday morning format to focus on the FOMC meeting and market implications. We expect the FOMC will conclude its two-day meeting this
Quickly on the March SEP We have been inundated with questions about the March SEP, clearly a signal that we need to provide some guidance ahead of our usual Monday
