Quick Look at Today’s Data June Inflation June PCE inflation printed a touch lighter than even our below-consensus estimate, though still broadly within expectations. Headline PCE rose 0.28% on a month-over-month
A Defiant Powell Holds Rates Steady The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting. As expected, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Chris Waller
Monday Morning Notes, 7/28/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Despite enormous pressure from the White House, the Fed will not cut policy rates at the end of this
Monday Morning Notes, 7/21/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed faces an increasingly challenging environment as it approaches upcoming policy decisions. It won’t cut rates at the
Note: Tim Duy is on vacation this week. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified that the Fed did not yet expect substantial tariff-induced inflation to be visible in the data.
Monday Morning Notes, 7/9/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We think the Fed is eyeing a rate cut in September, but we assess the odds of that outcome
A Shifting Balance of Risks We see signs that inflation may be softer than the Fed anticipates while the labor market is more vulnerable to downside risks. Tomorrow’s June employment report may
Monday Morning Notes, 6/30/25 This is a shortened note for a holiday-shortened trading week. After pushing back on rate cuts all year, we said we couldn’t maintain that strategy with
Powell Holds His Ground Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his message from last week’s FOMC press conference in today’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony. The Fed is on hold this summer and will
MAGA Takeover at The Fed Federal Reserve Vice-Chair of Supervision Michelle Bowman and Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller have aligned politically with President Donald Trump to support a July rate
Monday Morning Notes, 6/23/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Last week’s FOMC meeting and subsequent press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell left little doubt that the
Quick Follow Up The FOMC held policy rates steady as expected while issuing a fresh set of projections that revealed a sharp bifurcation of forecasts among FOMC participants. The real
Forecast Distributions and Recent Guidance Bottom Line: We expect the June SEP to reflect a more pronounced tariff shock with both the inflation and unemployment rate forecasts raised, and economic
Monday Morning Notes, 6/16/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will signal steady rate policy through the summer at this week’s FOMC meeting. We anticipate the SEP
The June SEP Today’s CPI number notwithstanding, we anticipate the June SEP will broadly follow the same contours as the March SEP though with more pronounced supply side effects due to
Monday Morning Notes, 6/9/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The May employment report revealed a sufficiently resilient labor market to confirm the Federal Reserve’s belief that it has time
Ahead of the May Employment Report The May employment report released tomorrow could help cement the Fed’s expectation that it stays on the sidelines throughout the summer. The Fed views the
Monday Morning Notes, 6/2/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Federal Reserve’s baseline view is that tariffs, and broader policy changes on net, will have a stagflationary impact
Monday Morning Notes, 5/19/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed remains in a holding pattern. The economy remains sufficiently strong that the Fed confidently believes it can
Monday Morning Notes, 5/12/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Policy remains in a holding pattern as the Fed manages risks to both sides of its mandate. We think
