Monday Morning Notes, 9/29/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning It’s “wait and see” time for market participants. We think the Fed, or most importantly, the Board, has largely made
Monday Morning Notes, 9/22/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning A divided Fed cut interest rates last week and signaled another two cuts for the remainder of 2025. We
On Track for Two More Rate Cuts This Year A divided Fed cut policy rates 25bps as expected and signaled more will come this year. Although a wide swath of
Monday Morning Notes, 9/15/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will cut interest rates 25bps this week and signal at least one more rate cut for 2025.
Job Growth, ADP, and the Benchmark Revisions The slowdown in job growth has market participants and the Federal Reserve focused on downside labor market risks. With much of the topline US
Upcoming BLS Benchmark Revision Federal Reserve officials are increasingly embracing the view that downside risks to the labor market are building, reinforcing the case for interest rate cuts to stabilize
Monday Morning Notes, 9/8/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Growing downside risks to the labor market as highlighted in the August employment report will likely trigger a series
Tuesday Morning Notes, 9/2/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Federal Reserve is set to deliver a 25bp rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. By putting his
Slower Immigration Lowers Breakeven Job Growth Summary Federal Reserve and Breakevens Federal Reserve officials have cautioned that due to slowing immigration the recent softness in nonfarm payrolls should be taken
Monday Morning Notes, 8/25/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning At last week’s Jackson Hole conference Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave the green light for a rate cut
Final Thoughts Ahead of Powell We reiterate our message from Sunday night: Rather than blessing a September rate cut, tomorrow Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may largely repeat his hawkish comments
Monday Morning Notes, 8/18/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Market participants head into this week’s Jackson Hole conference with high hopes that the Fed will soon start cutting rates. Much
PPI Keeps Inflation on SEP Track July’s Producer Price Index (PPI) came in a piping hot 0.9% increase month-over-month, well above expectations, leading markets to pare back rate cut expectations. As we
Watch Out for Risks to Current Pricing US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s market-moving push for a jumbo-sized rate cut will only reinforce an appearance Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has
CPI, Fedspeak, Trump v. Powell A round up of today’s numbers and events. Inflation data The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) met expectations with headline printing a 0.2% increase month-over-month,
It’s Complicated This period ranks among the most complicated setups for navigating the Fed that we have ever seen. Market participants are balancing multiple issues with contradictory outcomes for monetary policy:
Monday Morning Notes, 8/11/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed doves are focusing on a foundation on which Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell can build a consensus for a
Trump Taps Miran for the Fed President Doanld Trump will nominate CEA Chairman Stephen Miran to fill Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler’s seat on a temporary basis until next January.
FOMC Hawks and Doves Unless FOMC participants disclose their rate projections, ranking them from hawkish to dovish tends to be a judgement that relies on their most recent utterances. In
Monday Morning Notes, 8/4/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The weak July employment report puts a September rate cut back on the table, but it is by no means
