Monday Morning Notes, 2/26/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed looks back to 1995 as a guide to achieving a soft landing in this cycle. Notably, in
Minutes Offer Little New Guidance The minutes of the January FOMC meeting offered little new guidance. Although the Fed had gained greater confidence in the inflation outlook, it still needed
Tuesday Morning Notes, 2/20/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed continues its efforts to steer the economy into a soft landing. From its perch, the economy appears
Moving the Goalposts? Following in the footsteps of his dismissive comments regarding the hot January jobs numbers, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee downplayed yesterday’s CPI report. Recall Goolsbee on February
Preemptive Rate Cuts Delayed After months of surprising on the downside, January core-CPI inflation printed at 0.4% compared to expectations for 0.3%. While there may be temporary factors boosting this number
Monday Morning Notes, 2/12/24 The Fed expects that it will begin the process of normalizing policy rates this year. The sharp decline of inflation in the second half of last
Monday Morning Notes, 2/5/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Coming on top of a red-hot GDP number, the surprise surge injob growth reported on Friday vindicates hawkish FOMC
Closer, But Not Quite Yet There The Fed held rates steady today and shifted toward a more neutral policy stance in the FOMC statement, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
Quick Note There is a rumor floating around that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be featured on 60 Minutes in the next week. We can’t confirm this rumor at this
Monday Morning Notes, 1/29/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Falling inflation drove the Fed to pivot to an active discussion of the timing of the first rate cut.
Into the Grinder Managing the path to the first rate cut in this cycle has become more challenging with the inclusion of a greater weight on the growth/jobs outcomes. The most
Monday Morning Notes, 1/22/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The last 10 weeks have been a wild ride. Since we first posited the possibility of a March rate
Managing the Path to the March Meeting Market odds of a March rate cut dropped sharply today to around 50% with the move fueled in part by a strong retail
Low Bar for a March Rate Cut As we expected, Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller did not endorse a March rate cut. But he most certainly didn’t rule it out.
Tuesday Morning Notes, 1/16/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed speakers have provided some minimal pushback on market pricing for a March cut, but key speakers have provided none
A Few Quick Bites Ahead of the CPI Report Considering this progress, I voted to maintain the policy rate at its current level while we continue to monitor the incoming
Monday Morning Notes, 1/8/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The minutes of the December FOMC meeting set the stage for the Fed to signal a March rate cut
Minutes Pave the Way for Rate Cuts While the minutes of the December FOMC meeting did not greenlight a rate cut for the March meeting, they did open the door
Monday Morning Notes, 1/2/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning With inflation having collapsed in the second half of 2023, the Fed will begin cutting rates by March to
Monday Morning Notes, 12/18/23 Rather than our traditional Monday note, we are winding down the year with an explanation for the Fed’s pivot, and where it might lead, to ponder
