Monday Morning Notes, 7/11/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning A unified Fed is determined to quickly bring policy rates into restrictive territory, and nothing is likely to stop

Full Steam Ahead for the Fed As predicted with the Fed facing a deteriorating inflation outlook, the minutes of the June FOMC meeting took on a decidedly hawkish tone. Participants

Tuesday Morning Notes, 7/5/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed remains committed to restoring price stability even at the expense of growth. I think recession fears are

Fed Themes After the June FOMC Meeting We are tracking several themes that have emerged in the wake of the Fed’s decision to accelerate the pace of rate hikes: The

Monday Morning Notes, 6/27/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We know the Fed’s overarching objective is to restore price stability and that translates into a continuing series of

Monday Morning Notes, 6/21/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed intensified its commitment to its inflation target last week, accelerating the pace of rate hikes to 75bp

Fed Embraces The Risk of Recession The outcome of today’s FOMC meeting was almost exactly in line with our expectations. With policy rates now projected to rise well above neutral

Powell’s Volcker Moment That was another unpleasant day on Wall Street with stocks, bonds, and crypto all trading deep in the red. The proximate cause was a repricing of risk

Monday Morning Notes, 6/13/22 It seems to me that this week’s FOMC meeting is not really about 50bp or 75bp. That’s only one decision in a much bigger picture. At

Final Thoughts Heading into the FOMC Decision Some things I am thinking about as we wait for the outcome of the FOMC meeting: It’s the politics? In retrospect, it is

Creating a Credible Unemployment Projection In my Monday note, I outlined our expectations for the next iteration of the dot-plot of interest rate projections to be released at the end

Monday Morning Notes, 6/6/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will hike rates 50bp at next week’s meeting, but that is already old news. More importantly, the

Data Might Quickly Put a Lock on September The Fed currently limits what I call “hard” forward guidance to only the next two FOMC meetings, June and July. The Fed

Tuesday Morning Notes If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We are still waiting for data to provide guidance on the Fed’s path beyond the July FOMC meeting. As a

Fed Not Thinking About a September Pause It has been quite the swing in market sentiment over the past few weeks as contemplation of a 75bp rate hike gave way

Monday Morning Notes, 5/23/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed remains on track to hike rates 50bp at each of the next two FOMC meetings. What happens

Fed Speakers Sparring Over September We have been highlighting the September meeting as a possible pivot point for monetary policy, and Fed speakers are now presenting their baseline expectations for

Quick Note on Powell Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained his resolute messaging on inflation in his Tuesday Wall Street Journal interview. The Fed is committed to restoring price stability,

Monday Morning Notes, 5/16/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed remains committed to restoring price stability and has signaled another two 50bp rate hikes are needed to

Quick Inflation Note The latest read on inflation offers no comfort for the Fed. Inflation both headline and core surprised on the upside in April, the latter driven by a