Inflation With Another Upside Surprise CPI inflation came in hot in May with headline and core climbing 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. At this point, there is no indication that the

JOLTS Surprises on the Upside The JOLTS report revealed the intensity of the frictions facing the U.S. labor market. The Fed has been downplaying these frictions on the assumption they

Monday Morning Notes, 6/7/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The tapering train will continue to roll forward as a hot economy combines with elevated inflation to push the

Ahead of the Employment Report ADP surprised on the upside with a 978k gain relative to expectations of 650k, suggesting that hiring is stronger than indicated by the April jobs

Quick Note on the Beige Book The Fed released its June Beige Book, the regular pre-meeting compendium of anecdotal evidence. The report, prepared by the Cleveland Fed, was largely upbeat

Supply Constraints in Manufacturing, Brainard With Another Subtle Shift The Markit and ISM manufacturing reports for May tell a similar story: The manufacturing sector is running red hot with steady

Monday Morning Notes, 6/1/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Though still at the earliest phase, the Fed is undeniably moving forward with the tapering discussion. The Fed has

Quick Note on Quarles Federal Reserve Vice Chair Randal Quarles moved the tapering discussion another notch forward in Wednesday’s speech. This small shift follows other subtle remarks from Fed officials

The Taper Train Continues Fed speakers continue to rehash familiar themes while edging closer to the tapering conversation. The Fed’s objective is to lead us into tapering without creating any

Monday Morning Notes, 5/24/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Talking about when to talk about tapering is now on the table, the first step in the Fed’s promised

Talking About Talking About Tapering And so it begins. The FOMC minutes revealed that participants had not yet begun talking about tapering. Still, they made a big leap in that

The Importance of Challenging the Narrative For a second week I am breaking with the usual framework Monday morning notes. This morning I think it is more important to focus

Waller Lays Down Some Markers While Bullard Challenges the Conventional Wisdom As expected, Fed officials have yet to waver in the face of rising inflation pressures including this week’s blowout

For the Fed, Everything Remains Transitory Firmly fixated on the goal of full employment, the Fed remains committed to its “credibly irresponsible” policy approach. Unless the supply side crunch eases

Employment Report Post-Mortem In lieu of the usual Monday morning notes, today’s content is a more focused look at the implications of the disappointing April employment report. The April employment

Fed Presidents Fall in Line With Powell Fed speakers continue to emphasize the party line: Optimism on the economic outlook while recognizing that the road to recovery remains long, continued

The Markets Wants to Talk Inflation. The Fed Wants to Talk Jobs Inflation remains at the top of the news cycle. The New York Times reports on the commodity price

Yellen Stirs the Pot U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen created a bit of a stir in markets with these comments: “It may be that interest rates will have to rise

Monday Morning Notes, 5/3/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed remains locked into its “credibly irresponsible” policy stance as the economy struggles with what seems likely to

Doves Still Rule The Roost As anticipated, the FOMC took no action at the end of this month’s FOMC meeting. In the subsequent press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell