Tuesday Morning Notes, 1/3/23 We begin the year where we ended the last, with the Fed still raising interest rates but balancing the pace and extent of rate hikes against
Quick Roundup: BOJ, Housing, Neutral Rates, Unemployment The Bank of Japan finally joined the party, effectively aiding the Fed’s efforts. The Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised the cap on Japan’s
Monday Morning Notes, 12/19/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Despite the recent welcome inflation numbers, the Fed still needs to reduce overheating in the labor market to prevent
Fed Speakers Incoming We will be watching to see if Fed speakers push back on the market’s unenthusiastic embrace of this week’s FOMC meeting message. New York Federal Reserve President John
Fed Projects Policy Rates Above 5% The Fed raised rates 50bp as expected and signaled more to come. The SEP-implied terminal rate rose to 5.125%, greater than my expectations of
Quick CPI Note November inflation came in lower than expected with core-CPI printing at 0.2%, down from 0.3% in October: This feeds into the disinflationary narrative and supports the case
Monday Morning Notes, 12/12/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is poised to raise rates 50bp at this week’s FOMC meeting and project that at least another
Monday Morning Notes, 12/5/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is gearing up for a 50bp rate hike at next week’s meeting and given the repeated guidance
Powell Sparks a Rally Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech fell in line with our expectations yet during the Q&A he sounded to us more measured and dovish compared to
Fedspeak ahead of Powell Although Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is the headliner this week, there were plenty of warm up acts today ahead of his Wednesday speech. New York
Monday Morning Notes, 11/27/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is poised to hike rates 50bp at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The Fed will hike rates at
Waller, Retail Sales Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller provided further guidance that both pointed to a step down to 50bp at the December FOMC meeting while emphasizing that the Fed
Monday Morning Notes, 11/21/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed plans to raise its policy rate to a level that is sufficiently restrictive to restrain the demand
Monday Morning Notes, 11/14/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The October CPI report reinforced our caution last week about pushing the expected terminal rate for the Fed’s tightening
Monday Morning Notes, 11/7/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is heading toward a 50bp rate hike in December, and we think odds favor pushing through another
Further Increases in the Terminal Policy Rate Ahead Today’s FOMC meeting validated our baseline outlook that the Fed expects to downshift to 50bp at the December meeting, that at that
Final Thoughts Heading into the November FOMC Meeting On the JOLTS report, openings unexpectedly rose in September. This isn’t what the Fed is looking for, but that said this is
Monday Morning Notes, 10/31/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will follow through with another jumbo-sized rate hike this week but will signal a high likelihood that
Monday Morning Notes, 10/24/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is poised to raise rates 75bp next week and further rate increases are expected at upcoming meetings.
