Final Thoughts Ahead of Powell We reiterate our message from Sunday night: Rather than blessing a September rate cut, tomorrow Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may largely repeat his hawkish comments
Monday Morning Notes, 8/18/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Market participants head into this week’s Jackson Hole conference with high hopes that the Fed will soon start cutting rates. Much
PPI Keeps Inflation on SEP Track July’s Producer Price Index (PPI) came in a piping hot 0.9% increase month-over-month, well above expectations, leading markets to pare back rate cut expectations. As we
Watch Out for Risks to Current Pricing US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s market-moving push for a jumbo-sized rate cut will only reinforce an appearance Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has
CPI, Fedspeak, Trump v. Powell A round up of today’s numbers and events. Inflation data The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) met expectations with headline printing a 0.2% increase month-over-month,
It’s Complicated This period ranks among the most complicated setups for navigating the Fed that we have ever seen. Market participants are balancing multiple issues with contradictory outcomes for monetary policy:
Monday Morning Notes, 8/11/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed doves are focusing on a foundation on which Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell can build a consensus for a
Trump Taps Miran for the Fed President Doanld Trump will nominate CEA Chairman Stephen Miran to fill Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler’s seat on a temporary basis until next January.
FOMC Hawks and Doves Unless FOMC participants disclose their rate projections, ranking them from hawkish to dovish tends to be a judgement that relies on their most recent utterances. In
Monday Morning Notes, 8/4/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The weak July employment report puts a September rate cut back on the table, but it is by no means
Quick Look at Today’s Data June Inflation June PCE inflation printed a touch lighter than even our below-consensus estimate, though still broadly within expectations. Headline PCE rose 0.28% on a month-over-month
A Defiant Powell Holds Rates Steady The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting. As expected, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Chris Waller
Monday Morning Notes, 7/28/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Despite enormous pressure from the White House, the Fed will not cut policy rates at the end of this
Monday Morning Notes, 7/21/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed faces an increasingly challenging environment as it approaches upcoming policy decisions. It won’t cut rates at the
Note: Tim Duy is on vacation this week. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified that the Fed did not yet expect substantial tariff-induced inflation to be visible in the data.
Monday Morning Notes, 7/9/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We think the Fed is eyeing a rate cut in September, but we assess the odds of that outcome
A Shifting Balance of Risks We see signs that inflation may be softer than the Fed anticipates while the labor market is more vulnerable to downside risks. Tomorrow’s June employment report may
Monday Morning Notes, 6/30/25 This is a shortened note for a holiday-shortened trading week. After pushing back on rate cuts all year, we said we couldn’t maintain that strategy with
Powell Holds His Ground Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his message from last week’s FOMC press conference in today’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony. The Fed is on hold this summer and will
MAGA Takeover at The Fed Federal Reserve Vice-Chair of Supervision Michelle Bowman and Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller have aligned politically with President Donald Trump to support a July rate
