Monday Morning Notes, 12/13/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The FOMC is meeting for the first time since Chair Jerome Powell publicly pivoted the Fed in a hawkish
On The Dots You ask, I answer, now with some quick thoughts on next week’s dot plot. The theme for the week is my expectation of a high probability that
Why March? Last night I wrote that we thought there was a high probability the first rate hike will come at the March FOMC meeting. Some clients have asked for
Monday Morning Notes, 12/6/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed pivot to reducing accommodation more aggressively is underway, beginning with an accelerated pace of tapering next week.
Powell Seals the Deal Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded an unmitigatedly hawkish note in today’s appearance on Capitol Hill. His remarks were consistent with my interpretation of the written
Quick Note on Powell After the market close today the Fed released Chair Jerome Powell’s written testimony for his Tuesday trip to Capitol Hill. I think it leans hawkish. First,
Monday Morning Notes, 11/29/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Omicron variant roiled markets last week but we have only much speculation and few hard facts. The Fed
Powell For Chair, Brainard for Vice Chair President Biden ended the suspense today by announcing the renomination of Jerome Powell for Chair and the nomination of Lael Brainard for Vice
Note: The most significant data last week was the retail sales report, which I covered in my 11/16 note. This is a holiday-shortened week, with Wednesday being the big data
Williams, Evans, Fed Chair A couple of things of note today. First, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said rate hikes: “could begin next year after we finish our asset-purchasing
Retail Sales, Fed Speakers at Opposite Ends of the Policy Spectrum Retail sales surprised on the upside with the ex-autos category gaining 1.7% compared to an expected 1.0%. As
Monday Morning Notes, 11/15/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Watch for more hawkish drift in Fed speak in the wake of last week’s CPI report. The Fed’s transitory
CPI, Fed Personnel CPI came in on the upside, rising 0.9% for the month (11.9% annualized). Core came in at 0.6% compared to expectations of 0.4%: Increasingly this is not
Chair Nomination, Fed Speakers Bloomberg broke a story overnight that Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard was still in the running for the Fed, including this bit: But the White House
Monday Morning Notes, 11/8/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is attempting to lock down the near-term policy path by planning to end asset purchases ahead of
Fed Stays the Course The November FOMC meeting concluded as we expected. The Fed began tapering asset purchases at a rate that will bring the program to an end in
Monday Morning Notes, 11/1/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Despite pressure from markets looking for a hawkish pivot, the Fed will likely stay the course this week and
Pre-Meeting Notes A couple of thoughts as we head into this FOMC meeting. First, a reader asked if the Fed really needed to abandon the new framework to turn hawkish?
Monday Morning Notes, 11/1/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Despite pressure from markets looking for a hawkish pivot, the Fed will likely stay the course this week and
Odds and Ends: Bank of Canada, Fed Appointments, Inflation, Yield Curve Some things I am thinking about this week while the Fed is in the blackout period: The Bank of
